Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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393. ILwthrfan
10:46 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:


It wouldn't surprise me at all to watch Debby pull a Chris.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1456
392. JNCali
10:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Tips from the official Heat Advisory:

"...Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose-fitted clothing when possible,
and drink plenty of water along with other non-alcoholic
beverages. It is important also to avoid too much direct sun, and
to limit your salt Intake. Please remember to not leave children
or pets locked inside a vehicle, even with the windows down, as
temperatures inside a car can become suffocating when exposed to
direct sunlight even for a short time. Also remember to check on
your elderly and disabled family members or neighbors.

To reduce the risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety
and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest
breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome
by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is a emergency - call 911.

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
391. JNCali
10:27 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
getting ready to head out into the heat in Mid TN today... I can not imagine what TX went through last summer... all we need is a little love from the Jet Stream right?
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
390. islandgirls
9:41 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
All right!!! Antigua on the blog... The wave - so far - should just bring typical "summer" type rain with it, since right now it's not expected to develop.







Thanks. It's so hot here we will take what we can get.
Member Since: April 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
389. Bobbyweather
9:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
S(J?)-shaped Debby
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
388. Bobbyweather
9:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Debby,
come on, come on, regenerate, regenerate,
if you don't I will be disappointed in you.

Lol..I'm talking to a cyclone...I must be crazy.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
387. Bobbyweather
9:13 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Debby has winds of 55 mph, per this image:
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
386. Bobbyweather
8:19 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Debby, show yourself that you are still alive!


What is RBTOP anyway?

Also, do I see ex-Debby detaching from the front, or are my eyes deceiving me?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
385. AussieStorm
7:10 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Your trolling might have been cute if you had remembered to change the development potential of the latter system to "medium". Oops.

Nice TCR for Hurricane Chris.

not a very smart troll. I guess trolls don't need to be smart cause of what they do. I'm surprised he hasn't changed it to medium.

Will it get named???? 91P now up to T3.0/3.0 Dvorak Intensity.

Jason, this is a WOW!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
384. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:08 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
15:00 PM JST June 29 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (992 hPa) is located at 21.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 22.6N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland South China
48 HRS: 23.7N 108.8E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44747
383. LeMoyne
6:30 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Can get real-time Bermuda weather readings from http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp



Choose:
Extended Radar Products & AWOS. More radar products and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). To log in, the user name and password are both guest.


Commissioner's Point again getting sustained winds >33 kts with gusts nearing 50 kts. Radar shows CoC approx 200km out

Correction earlier I said Commissioner's Point is on far NE tip of island: it is the far NorthWEST tip of Bermuda.

Airport shows the following (from same site Climate data):
Date & Time (Local) 6/29/2012 02:55
Date & Time (GMT) 6/29/2012 05:55
Wind Direction ( True) 190
Wind Speed (kts / mph / kph) 23 / 26 / 43
Wind Gusts (kts / mph / kph) n/a
Temperature (C / F) 25.2 / 77.4
Dew Point (C / F) 22.9 / 73.2
Relative Humidity (%) 87
Sea Level Pressure (hPa / " Hg) 1012.9 / 29.91
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
382. KoritheMan
5:48 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL...AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE..50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
WOW %50 PERCENT!!


Your trolling might have been cute if you had remembered to change the development potential of the latter system to "medium". Oops.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
380. KoritheMan
5:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
I know everyone's asleep, but hopefully they'll see this tomorrow. My TCR for Hurricane Chris:

Hurricane Chris [AL03]

19 June - 22 June

Chris was a high latitude hurricane that remained well out at sea over the north Atlantic shipping lanes.

a. Storm history

Chris developed from a weak cold front. Synoptic data indicate this front entered the western Atlantic on 13 June. An area of showers developed along the front as it progressed steadily eastward. An area of low pressure formed along the front early on 17 June while the system was centered about 250 miles southwest of Bermuda. As the low accelerated northeastward in lower- to middle tropospheric southwesterly flow, the overall satellite presentation and wind structure began to become better defined, with an ASCAT pass just after 0000 UTC 18 June indicating a broad surface circulation and increasing winds. Moving across the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream and through an environment of weak upper tropospheric shear, the system gradually developed symmetrical and relatively deep convection across roughly 75% of the center. This evolution led to the formation of a tropical storm around or just after 1800 UTC 19 June, when the system was located approximately 400 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

After genesis, Chris moved to the east-northeast under the influence of an upper low and its associated baroclinic zone located over Atlantic Canada. The cyclone turned northward early on 21 June, moving in a broad cyclonic fashion around the upper low. Just before 0000 UTC 21 June, an eye-feature began to develop in satellite and microwave data (not shown). As Chris turned northward, it became a hurricane near 1200 UTC while centered about 625 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, or about 1000 miles south of the southern tip of Greenland. Chris's strengthening over relatively cold underlying sea surface temperatures can probably be attributed to several meteorological phenomena: first, the chilly ocean temperatures, which are normally considered unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, were likely mitigated by the very cold upper tropospheric temperatures in the surrounding environment as denoted on AMSU imagery at the time Chris became a hurricane (shown below). Second, Chris was located in close proximity to a large extratropical low pressure system to its south; northeasterly flow on the back side of this low probably acted to produce upper-level diffluence over the hurricane, a process that has been shown to aid in the development of convection. Lastly, the mean vertical shear pattern over eastward-moving Chris was nearly a uniform westerly when it began developing the eye. Finally, when Chris turned northward on 21 June, the upper tropospheric flow over the storm became more southerly. This is another atmospheric process that has been shown to be conducive to the intensification of a tropical cyclone. When the two entities diverge and move in opposing directions, the magnitude of the shear is generally reduced.

Shortly after becoming a hurricane, Chris began to weaken. The eye became indistinct just after 1800 UTC, at which time Chris weakened to a tropical storm. Devoid of deep convection, the cyclone lost all tropical characteristics near 1200 UTC 22 June while centered about 350 miles east-southeast of Cape Race. Chris became absorbed into the extratropical low a few hours later.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
379. sunlinepr
5:37 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
378. nigel20
5:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Have a good night everyone...I'm off to bed.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290534
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL...AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
377. sunlinepr
5:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Intensifying seismic and volcanic activity lifts Canary Island
Posted on June 29, 2012

June 29, 2012 – CANARY ISLANDS - Following days of almost continual earthquakes, residents of the small Canary island of El Hierro are once again living in fear of a volcanic eruption as their island begins to lift. According to the National Geographic Institute of Spain, increases in seismic activity on the island has seen literally hundreds of earthquakes, known as a swarm, shaking the island and gradually increasing in strength since June 25. Around 750 earthquakes have been recorded although few have been strong enough to be felt by the residents until the last two days. The island has been placed on yellow alert by the security committee in charge of operations as the earthquakes increase. The largest so far was registered at 4.0 on the Richter scale on Wednesday June 27. More frightening for the approximately 10,000 residents is the fact that a bulge has developed in the island, lifting it five centimeters in four days. Whereas the volcanic activity of 2011 was based out at sea, this time the magma appears to be forming right underneath the island and the pressure is building. Scientists on the island are using the position of the earthquake epicenters to try and work out where the magma from the volcano will come to the surface. The longer it takes to find a vent, the more the pressure from the magma will grow and the larger any possible eruption is likely to be. Earthquake Report says that PEVOLCA (Civil Protection from Volcanic Risk) has said that there is acceleration in the flow of magma, with a “clear process of inflation.” –Digital Journal
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
376. sunlinepr
5:33 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Waldo Canyon Fire now most destructive Colorado fire on record
Posted on June 29, 2012


June 28, 2012 – COLORADO – A fierce Colorado wildfire that has forced the evacuation of some 35,000 people while raging for six days at the edge of the state’s second-most populous city has destroyed 346 homes, Mayor Steve Bach said on Thursday, citing preliminary damage reports. If those figures hold up, the tally of lost homes in and around Colorado Springs would make the so-called Waldo Canyon Fire the state’s most destructive on record, surpassing the 257 homes consumed in recent weeks by a much larger blaze north of Denver near Fort Collins. While no deaths or serious injuries have been reported from the blaze so far, Colorado Springs Police Chief Peter Carey said authorities were seeking the whereabouts of some people he described as “unaccounted for,” though he did not give a number. A police spokeswoman, Carrie McCuffland, said there were no specific reports from citizens of missing people, and that the unaccounted-for list consists of individuals who apparently neglected to register with the city or the American Red Cross as evacuees. “Every indication is that there are no casualties,” McCuffland told Reuters. Authorities earlier acknowledged the loss of hundreds of homes in Tuesday’s firestorm, but the damage toll released by the mayor at an afternoon news conference on Thursday gave the first firm picture of the full extent of the devastation. President Barack Obama plans to visit Colorado Springs on Friday to meet with firefighters and tour the ravaged zones. The grim news came as lighter winds helped firefighters battling to contain the inferno that had roared unchecked through residential neighborhoods in the northwestern corner of Colorado Springs and nibbled at the fringe of the U.S. Air Force Academy campus. The academy welcomed over 1,000 new cadets on Thursday, despite the fire, bringing them to a portion of the facility far from the smoke, base spokesman Harry Lundy said. For the first time since the blaze erupted on Saturday, a red-flag warning for heightened fire hazards was lifted for the Colorado Springs area. “We had a pretty good day on the line today. There was minimal fire growth,” incident commander Rich Harvey said. But anguish and frustration ran high among many of the estimated 35,000 residents who remained under evacuation orders. –Reuters
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
374. allancalderini
5:29 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
I swear Debby and Karen must be sisters... Amazing that Debby's circulation persists despite all that's happened in the last 5 days...
you forget Emily of 2011.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4011
373. nigel20
5:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good night all, see ya tomorrow, although I may not see the new blob. It's really weakened steadily over the last two hours.

Stay safe and have a good night Tribucanes.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
372. AussieStorm
5:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, even with like five people on, there's still the little green guy angrily guarding his bridge. Small, greedy thinking, the reason the world's in the mess we're in. Jason is just a fine example of that thinking. Sad too, most everyone here has a good time and gives good accurate info; he could too if he could enlarge his thinking.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
370. Tribucanes
5:15 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Good night all, see ya tomorrow, although I may not see the new blob. It's really weakened steadily over the last two hours.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
369. nigel20
5:11 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, even with like five people on, there's still the little green guy angrily guarding his bridge. Small, greedy thinking, the reason the world's in the mess we're in. Jason is just a fine example of that thinking. Sad too, most everyone here has a good time and gives good accurate info; he could too if he could enlarge his thinking.

Agreed.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
368. Tribucanes
5:06 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Wow, even with like five people on, there's still the little green guy angrily guarding his bridge. Small, greedy thinking, the reason the world's in the mess we're in. Jason is just a fine example of that thinking. Sad too, most everyone here has a good time and gives good accurate info; he could too if he could enlarge his thinking.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
367. nigel20
5:03 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

I don't think it will get named. it's middle of winter down here.

91P Dvorak Intensity = T2.5/2.5
Interesting.

DOKSURI only has a Dvorak Intensity of T1.5/2.0

Yeah, it's a nice looking invest though.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
366. AussieStorm
5:01 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
wow tropical low 1004 mb!!

Jason, stop it. There is no 1004mb low. CATL is 1015mb and ex-Debby is 1001mb which is expected.


Click to see lager image.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N44W THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 13N44W TO 9N45W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DENSE LAYER OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM 13N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
43W-48W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY AND HAS
BEEN ABSORBED BY THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
364. Tribucanes
4:57 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
We could have massive crop failure across part of the Midwest this year. If this pattern persists, corn in Southern and South Central Wisconsin will be a complete loss, not to mention other very water sensitive crops. This is one sick heat wave, with no end in sight. Southern plains are no fun. It's brutal in Wisconsin with the next seven days forecast over ninety. I'm just thankful I don't live Southern Illinois down, hundred teen something heat indexes are scary when it comes with dew point and humidity.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
362. AussieStorm
4:54 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

It is looking pretty good.

I don't think it will get named. it's middle of winter down here.

91P Dvorak Intensity = T2.5/2.5
Interesting.

DOKSURI only has a Dvorak Intensity of T1.5/2.0
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
361. LeMoyne
4:53 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Nice Lemoyne thanks for that awesome update. Morph again, I've been thinking that for days, but NHC seems to be winning and Debby dying. I personally hope she regenerates now that she's moving out of harming people range.


Thanks Tribucanes, but the winds are back down a bit - the core approaches Bermuda and the SWIR seems to show some core changes now...
I think Debby wants the minimal set of arms for a TS (now seemng more possible that the ridge is more behind W than on top N). Try to make a left turn to the NE aka stic to the ridge a bit. Maybe just a pause to grow that 2d arm
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
360. nigel20
4:51 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Take a look at this little sucker off the SE tip of Papua New Guinea.
91P

It is looking pretty good.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
359. cg2916
4:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
119 heat index the next days. You know the weather's bad when the official NWS forecast is "Hot"...
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
358. sunlinepr
4:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
357. KoritheMan
4:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


It seems as though Debby still has a very well-defined circulation. You can see it; she just would need to generate enough convection (non-frontal) to support it. So much for the models that suggested Debby would cross over Florida into a much more favourable environment haha.


The models do very poorly at intensity forecasting. Despite all of their upgrades over the years, they still suck hardcore at making any sort of intensity forecast, as do we. We rely primarily on persistence, which is a rather poor tool for weather forecasting.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
356. sunlinepr
4:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
355. AussieStorm
4:46 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Take a look at this little sucker off the SE tip of Papua New Guinea.
91P


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
354. LostTomorrows
4:44 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Nice Lemoyne thanks for that awesome update. Morph again, I've been thinking that for days, but NHC seems to be winning and Debby dying. I personally hope she regenerates now that she's moving out of harming people range.


It seems as though Debby still has a very well-defined circulation. You can see it; she just would need to generate enough convection (non-frontal) to support it. So much for the models that suggested Debby would cross over Florida into a much more favourable environment haha.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
353. Tribucanes
4:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Not good at all Keeper, why do you ask? I'm cringing at the coming response. :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
352. Tribucanes
4:41 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Nice Lemoyne thanks for that awesome update. Morph again, I've been thinking that for days, but NHC seems to be winning and Debby dying. I personally hope she regenerates now that she's moving out of harming people range.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
351. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Well that's good to know, would I have to vacate Wisconsin in all likelihood Keeper if the worst case came to fruition? Why can't they just encase everything under gaggles of concrete like the Russians did?
i have no idea that would be ones own choice i guess

how does -90c sound to ya
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good night, everybody. I'm headed off to bed.

Have a good night Baha!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
Sustained winds 30-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts at Commissioner's Point for a little while now. That station is on the storm side - the far NE point of Bermuda. The other two stations (presumably more sheltered) consistently read lower: now at 15-25 kts with gusts over 30kts.
Debby is still quite a ways away.
Found a few Bermuda weather sites.
This view is sweet: IR Satellite, Radar and Lightning Strikes.
Here's a still from it


Not a lot of rain or lightning going on.
Dry sheared again today she doesn't look like much
but Debby sure seems to have TS winds.
Conditions have relaxed enough for a northern arm to begin to build out of the SW quad that has been taking in dry air for the storm's life... it's gonna morph again.

The combo product above is a little behind current.
A more current Bermuda radar --
http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, Keeper that's some icky heat for Toronto this time of night.
its nasty night for sleeping

good thing i have ac

its like 68 inside a sweat box out

tomorrow low 90's heat index just over a 100
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Good night, everybody. I'm headed off to bed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well that's good to know, would I have to vacate Wisconsin in all likelihood Keeper if the worst case came to fruition? Why can't they just encase everything under gaggles of concrete like the Russians did?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Such modesty Baha. :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Tribucanes:
Aspectre, that area has been quiet for activity for a worrisome amount of time. Lets hope thats it. Another monster quake in that area and the world would be in trouble not just Japan
just the northern hemisphere is in danger we would have to move to the south

the deep south
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Wow, Keeper that's some icky heat for Toronto this time of night.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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