Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.


hype artist :)
it looks a lot worse than yesterday and has less spin than the first AOI, but it is bigger.
It has no model support

NWS hiked the highs here 4 degrees last night, was supposed to be 100-101, now they have 104-105 which is similar to what accuweather had last night.
And i called accuweather hype.
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Quoting Articuno:

Exactly could be trouble in the days to come


But there is no model support for anything to form in the next 10 days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.

Exactly could be trouble in the days to come
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2462
Quoting Articuno:

That wave coming off of Africa is looking pretty darn healthy if you ask me.

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
21P forecast to become a hurricane...



From last year, this new 21P is only expected to reach 40kts. Though it's still amazingly rare, 3 months after the season ended. In the ATL that is a Febuary storm!
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That wave coming off of Africa is looking pretty darn healthy if you ask me.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2462
.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2462
Quoting MTWX:


That's what I thought!

Any idea what the SST's are in the area??


Not very high
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Morning Everybody, unfortunately the Waldo Spring's Forest Fire has had it's first fatality

Link
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484. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
21P forecast to become a hurricane...



That map is nowhere near where it is located...

That's an archived image from last year...
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Quoting weatherh98:

2013 I think

But the seasons are opposite so idk

Since it has a name now, it's certain that it is part of the 2011-12 season. The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season runs from July 1 to June 30.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
21P forecast to become a hurricane...


That's not from today.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
480. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Windsat of Debby remnants.

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21P forecast to become a hurricane...

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478. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep... It's the middle of winter down there.


That's what I thought!

Any idea what the SST's are in the area??
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hanging there despite the sal.But the weak rotation continues to the east of the convection.
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Quoting MrMixon:
The Boulder Daily Camera has an informative map and some gut-wrenching before/after pictures of the damage from the Waldo Canyon Fire in northwest Colorado Springs.

LINK HERE



Those photos of destroyed homes show the devastating impact of wildfires that are made more dangerous when extreme weather conditions (HOT & DRY) exist. In the past month, residents of Colorado have lost over 600 homes to the devastating wildfries. Our thoughts and prayers must go to those who have lost their homes and valued treasures. Our thanks must go the brave firefighters who are risking life and limb to squelch these monstrous fires. Our thoughts and concerns also go to the many business owners and workers in Colorado's tourism industry whose liveliehoods are being impacted.

The below article describes the scientific view of how the frequency and severity of wildfires are linked to AGW and Climate Change:

West's wildfires a preview of changed climate: scientists

(Reuters) - Scorching heat, high winds and bone-dry conditions are fueling catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. West that offer a preview of the kind of disasters that human-caused climate change could bring, a trio of scientists said on Thursday.

"What we're seeing is a window into what global warming really looks like," Princeton University's Michael Oppenheimer said during a telephone press briefing. "It looks like heat, it looks like fires, it looks like this kind of environmental disaster ... This provides vivid images of what we can expect to see more of in the future."


Link
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Quoting MTWX:


Isn't it the competely wrong time fo the year for this??!??

Link

(Just off the NE coast of Australia)

Yep... It's the middle of winter down there.
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Re 466:
Largo, it isn't severe weather. It's called Summer. This is what's expected in Summer.
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471. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I believe the southwest Pacific disturbance has been classified.

21P



Isn't it the competely wrong time fo the year for this??!??

Link

(Just off the NE coast of Australia)
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Good morning
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2462
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning. After looking at the beach here it really has sunk in how important sea oats are to barrier islands and why they are protected. Those long roots hold the loose sand of the dunes in place and those dunes protect our property from flooding. They took quite a beating here. While looking around on the Internet I came across this file about the 1938 Hurricane. The Weather service had dropped warnings thinking it would re-curve away from land. Very interesting read with pictures. The wind, forward movement, and surge were incredible along with loss of lives, injuries, and property damage.



Link
Thank you for that link. Very interesting and horrifying. I never knew that the forward speed of the hurricane can increase the tidal surge until Wilma. Unfortunately, I was so hurricane weary that year, I did not listen to any forecasts. The surge took me and a lot of people in Key West by surprise. It happened after the storm was past us. I think it was the slosh of a release of water after the eye had hit mainland Florida, since it came from the bay.
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Good day all

It's my favourite time of the year. Yes folks Christmas is not my favourite time of year - It's the Hurricane Season! Call me crazy but it definitely is!!! The interest, the anticipation, the uncertainties,the drama, the event (which could certainly bring me harm. Hey I'm not stupid I take the proper precautions), following the discussions on this blog,all make the season something to look forward to............Oh the awesome power of nature!

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND AWAY FROM THE COAST AS AFTERNOON HEATING
COMBINES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINS FROM DEBBY. THE ANCLOTE RIVER
AT ELFERS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...ALAFIA RIVER AT
LITHIA...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup.


Epac is trying to make a run in the ATL
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Quoting weatherh98:


Pre Daniel?

Yup.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
I believe the southwest Pacific disturbance has been classified.

21P

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Pre Daniel?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Bobbyweather:
12 of the 51 comments were posted by me! (including this one)

Post-tropical Storm Debby will regenerate into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. (I hope.)

Prolly not
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I would say more like December or January.

If it was named would it get a 2011/12 season name or 2012/13 season name?

2013 I think

But the seasons are opposite so idk
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Quoting MrMixon:
The Boulder Daily Camera has an informative map and some gut-wrenching before/after pictures of the damage from the Waldo Canyon Fire in northwest Colorado Springs.

LINK HERE


That is Horrible.
Those images are a reminder that, in one way or another, we are all subject to Severe Weather.

I am wondering whether these heat waves in the US and other places (Europe, the Mid.East, etc etc) will continue in the years to come and whether they will continue to be more and more intense.

After all, they tell me that the Planet is cooling.
I don't know what to believe.
Should I go with Theory?
Or go with the Evidence?
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

I don't quite understand you. Am I right or wrong?


Wrong
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Quoting MTWX:


Need to quit talking to yourself!! LOL!! ;)

Lol
That's because no one talks like A week ago when Debby was active.
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454. MTWX
Quoting Bobbyweather:
12 of the 51 comments were posted by me! (including this one)

Post-tropical Storm Debby will regenerate into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. (I hope.)


Need to quit talking to yourself!! LOL!! ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link


That is the one. Thank you for posting it.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12 of the 51 comments were posted by me! (including this one)

Post-tropical Storm Debby will regenerate into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. (I hope.)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the link to the site where the graphics of the points of origin are? I lost that link and I would want to get it back. For example from July 1-10,July 11-20 etc.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting MTWX:
Wow! It's going to be a hot one this week!

Forecasted High's for Columbus, MS:

Today: 102
Saturday: 106
Sunday: 104
Monday: 106
Tuesday: 108

(Heat indices from 110-125)

Hopefully the rain comes and knocks us back down to the mid 90's on Wednesday as forecasted!!
MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER..DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
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Does anyone has the link to the site where the graphics of the points of origin are? I lost that link and I would want to get it back. For example from July 1-10,July 11-20 etc.
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Hmm... Does this mean that Debby is weakening?
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Good morning. After looking at the beach here it really has sunk in how important sea oats are to barrier islands and why they are protected. Those long roots hold the loose sand of the dunes in place and those dunes protect our property from flooding. They took quite a beating here. While looking around on the Internet I came across this file about the 1938 Hurricane. The Weather service had dropped warnings thinking it would re-curve away from land. Very interesting read with pictures. The wind, forward movement, and surge were incredible along with loss of lives, injuries, and property damage.



Link
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Quoting Grothar:


It's there. It is just that it is at the top and normally about the first 10 names aren't visible because the box gets too long. It is a little glich in the program.

I counted it, and there is 32 (at the time I plused it, the count was 33.)
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444. MTWX
Wow! It's going to be a hot one this week!

Forecasted High's for Columbus, MS:

Today: 102
Saturday: 106
Sunday: 104
Monday: 106
Tuesday: 108

(Heat indices from 110-125)

Hopefully the rain comes and knocks us back down to the mid 90's on Wednesday as forecasted!!
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Plused by:
allancalderini
MTWX
aspectre
hydrus
Tropicsweatherpr
BmtJedi
osuwxguynew
MAweatherboy1
ChillinInTheKeys
PlazaRed
BahaHurican
bappit
HurricaneKing
TropicalAnalystwx13
Picatso
barbamz
wxchaser97
etxwx
aislinnpaps
Tribucanes
kanshadow
GeorgiaStormz
LowerCal
StormTracker2K
Some1Has2BtheRookie
EricBlair
JSparrow
WeatherNerdPR
Birthmark
Brunski
racer925
kwgirl

I plused it, yet my name's not here.


It's there. It is just that it is at the top and normally about the first 10 names aren't visible because the box gets too long. It is a little glich in the program.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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