Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Quoting Patrap:


Tell that thing to come this way
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting tropicfreak:
Midlothian (2 Miles SSE), Midlothian
Scattered Clouds
98.7 °F
Feels Like 107 °F
Dew Point 71 °F

Ewww....

I am going to the pool in about an hour
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Midlothian (2 Miles SSE), Midlothian
Scattered Clouds
98.7 °F
Feels Like 107 °F
Dew Point 71 °F

Ewww....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current 2m temperatures across the USA:



It hasn't quite hit 100 yet here in Central VA, but we are pretty darn close with a temp of 98.5, with the heat index being 107! That blows my mind...

Temps to our south have already hit triple digit. Petersburg (just 30 miles south of here) is already at 104!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not from today.
Quoting MTWX:


That map is nowhere near where it is located...

That's an archived image from last year...
Quoting yqt1001:


From last year, this new 21P is only expected to reach 40kts. Though it's still amazingly rare, 3 months after the season ended. In the ATL that is a Febuary storm!

Oops, sorry... Here's the real one.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7849
Heat wave: 1,000+ records fall in US in a week
JANET McCONNAUGHEY, Associated Press, ROXANA HEGEMAN, Associated Press, SETH BORENSTEIN, Associated Press


Feeling hot? It's not a mirage. Across the United States, hundreds of heat records have fallen in the past week.

From the wildfire-consumed Rocky Mountains to the bacon-fried sidewalks of Oklahoma, the temperatures are creating consequences ranging from catastrophic to comical.

In the past week, 1,011 records have been broken around the country, including 251 new daily high temperature records on Tuesday.

Those numbers might seem big, but they're hard to put into context — the National Climatic Data Center has only been tracking the daily numbers broken for a little more than a year, said Derek Arndt, head of climate monitoring at the center.

Still, it's impressive, given that records usually aren't broken until the scorching months of July and August.

"Any time you're breaking all-time records in mid- to late-June, that's a healthy heat wave," Arndt said.

If forecasts hold, more records could fall in the coming days in the central and western parts of the country, places accustomed to sweating out the summer.

The current U.S. heat wave "is bad now by our current definition of bad," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, but "our definition of bad changes. What we see now will be far more common in the years ahead."

No matter where you are, the objective is the same: stay cool.

___

NIGHTTIME FIREFIGHTING

Wildfires pack intense heat, but soaring temperatures and whipping winds are piling on the men and women battling the blazes raging across the Rocky Mountains.

U.S. Forest Service firefighter Owen Johnson had to work overnight and avoided the piping-hot daytime temperatures in the region, which toppled records in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. On Tuesday, Colorado Springs reached 101 degrees, and Miles City in eastern Montana soared to 111 degrees, the highest ever recorded in that area.

A call came in after Johnson's regular shift Monday in the Helena National Forest in Montana. A wildfire was racing through the Scratchgravel Hills, threatening at least 200 homes. But firefighters had to wait to pose a direct attack until midnight, when the temperatures cooled and the wind died down.

On Tuesday morning, Johnson figured he had worked more than 24 hours, and probably wouldn't quit until the sun went down.

His sweaty hands gripping a banana and a cup of coffee, he gave a tired shrug when asked to compare this fire to others in his 13-year career.

"Every fire's different," he said. "They all pose their own risks and challenges."

___

PRAYING FOR RAIN

On the treeless, windswept Kansas prairie, the searing mix of sun and triple-digit heat is a recipe for agricultural disaster.

Some residents have taken to praying for rain and cooler temperatures in this sparsely populated western part of the state. Menlo farmer Brian Baalman can testify to that.

"Everybody is just sick of it. They just wish we would get a good rain," he said. "It has become a point to pray for it at church on Sunday, for sure."

Temperatures in the area have hovered around 111 degrees or higher for the past four days, and nine cities in western Kansas broke records on Tuesday.

Only in the earliest morning hours do hardy farmers dart out to ensure their livestock's water troughs are filled and their irrigation wells are quenching parched crops. They quickly return to cooler locales.

Much of the fortunes in the Menlo area are tied to corn crops, whose yields contribute not only to foodstuffs but also to ethanol-blended gasoline. But day after unyielding day of blazing sun and high heat have baked the top six inches of soil, and plant roots can break through to the moister soil below.

"It is getting to look ugly, the longer this keeps going on without a drink," Baalman said.

___

CARRIAGE-FREE FRENCH QUARTER

It was 10:30 a.m., prime time for mule-drawn carriages to cart tourists through New Orleans' historic French Quarter.

But nary a carriage rumbled down the streets — where it was already 97 degrees — because of a city ordinance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
... Record low temperature set at Daytona Beach...

a record low temperature of 63 degrees was set at Daytona Beach
this morning. This breaks the old record of 67 degrees set in 1950.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Thank you for that link. Very interesting and horrifying. I never knew that the forward speed of the hurricane can increase the tidal surge until Wilma. Unfortunately, I was so hurricane weary that year, I did not listen to any forecasts. The surge took me and a lot of people in Key West by surprise. It happened after the storm was past us. I think it was the slosh of a release of water after the eye had hit mainland Florida, since it came from the bay.


You're welcome and I agree it is horrifying! Am I remembering correctly that you lost everything? I hope you were able to get to your water aerobics for your knee!
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Quoting Minnemike:
for starters, try to avoid answering a question when you're just making things up.. and 2nd.. see #435. Zappy 1:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 for the actual answer to the question.


Or mine I looked it up lol

#523

Edit: it's the same thing copied from the same website
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Pasadena MD:

Temperature
96.9 °F
Feels Like 110 °F

Humidity: 50%


Yikes. Nasty out, going to the pool soon
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Ways to watch Debby:

Bermuda Weather Service imagery page which has Bermuda centered GOES views

Bermuda Weathercam:



Other local Doppler radar views and current surface readings at three AWOS stations through http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp



Debby is reorganizing again (as always?) and is about to wander in front of a train called the Jet Stream Express. You can watch her organize now or watch her (almost certainly) disappear later.

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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i am starting to see more t.storms with this tropical low!!

Where is that at>
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Quoting LeMoyne:


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.
for starters, try to avoid answering a question when you're just making things up.. and 2nd.. see #435. Zappy 1:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 for the actual answer to the question.
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Current 2m temperatures across the USA:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.



Looks like next hurricane season will be similar to 2005 el niño wise.

This is a LONG way out I really don't know just making observations
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
water temp keep getting warmer look at the red now!!


In the pink around here...

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Quoting fireflymom:
Modki is Japanese


and el nino is spanish
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Quoting fireflymom:
Modki is Japanese



He said "the boy" instead of el niño lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting LeMoyne:


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.


What lol now clouds aren't made of snow. Unless they are dropping snow.


In much the same way as why skies are blue, clouds are white because their water droplets or ice crystals are large enough to scatter the light of the seven wavelengths (red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, and violet), which combine to produce white light. Clouds will appear dark or gray when either they are in another clouds shadow or the top of a cloud casts a shadow upon its own base.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
The models they show on the ENSO sites are all under 2 degrees warming.


That is correct. None forecast a strong El Nino.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.



Thanks for that! I have been following it a bit as it effects us in Soo Cal quite a bit and saw that post of over 2c warming and I hadnt seen any model with numbers like that! Thanks again!
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Modki is Japanese
Quoting weatherh98:


Just say el niño. Some people didn't learn Spanish in high school.

You are adamant about wave deaths lol

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The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.

Note: Yes, this image is a bit outdated. However, the forecast is still straight on with the amount of warming we've seen.

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Somebody in here yesterday posted that the EURO model was forecasting a BIG El Nino of over 2 degrees celsius of warming in the pacific. That would make it like the 1997 El Nino as one of the biggest recorded. If anyone has a link or the poster is on now and could provide a link, Id be most appreciative :)


Moderate El Nino is what Euro is forecasting to start by August.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
Quoting MTWX:


Isn't it the competely wrong time fo the year for this??!??

Link

(Just off the NE coast of Australia)

Actually, if you are talking about that spin south of Oz, it is coming from the south west, thats why we call it the roaring 40's. I know you think we are upside down LOL. these spinners happen all year round some of them cause alot of damage wind wise.
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The models they show on the ENSO sites are all under 2 degrees warming.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
I have a question.
Why are clouds white?
It might be a simple question, but a specific, detailed answer would be nice. Then I'll be able to understand it right.
(Well, I don't know if this is related, but I know how a cloud is made.)


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.
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Tropical Storm Debby: Florida Deaths Reported (PHOTOS)

LIVE OAK, Fla. (AP) — Florida officials said Thursday that Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for seven deaths in the state.

State emergency operations spokeswoman Jessica Sims said that two people died in Pinellas County, including a 41-year-old woman caught in a riptide Wednesday at St. Pete Beach.

She was among eight people pulled from rip currents on St. Pete Beach on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, lifeguards on Clearwater Beach helped three people from the water who got caught in a rip current.

Storm-related deaths were also reported in Highlands, Pasco, Polk, Lake and Madison counties. They include a Highlands County woman who died in a tornado spawned by the storm on Sunday, as well as a 71-year-old man who suffered a heart attack and was found dead in flood waters outside his Indian Rocks Beach home in Pinellas County.

In addition, a South Carolina man disappeared Sunday off Alabama's Orange Beach in rough waters churned up by the storm.

Authorities said Wednesday they had suspended a five-day-old search for a 32-year-old Eric Pye of Summerville, S.C., after dozens of searchers using boats and sonar had failed to locate him.

The Orange Beach safety director, Melvin Shephard, told The Associated Press that accounts indicate Pye was wading near the beach's edge Sunday when the backwash of a large wave dragged him into the Gulf of Mexico. Debby was churning up 8- to 10-foot waves there at the time, he added.
Debby hovered in the Gulf of Mexico for days before slowly blowing across northern Florida this week; the storm dumped more than two feet of water in some parts.

On Thursday, Gov. Rick Scott traveled to some of the hardest-hit areas in Florida to survey flood damages. He told officials and some victims that he empathized with them.

"I grew up in the Midwest and the Missouri River used to flood," said Scott, who was raised in Kansas City. "You think about it as you go down and see the families who are devastated when their houses are under water."

Scott noted that the Suwannee River has yet to crest.

"There's more to come," he said.

Suwannee County Sheriff Tony Cameron said he hadn't seen so much flooding in Live Oak and surrounding areas since 1964, when he was 11 and Hurricane Dora flooded the small, north-central Florida community. Then, he helped his grandfather pump water out of the city.

"The problem we have right now is sink holes, that's our number one problem at this time," Cameron said Thursday afternoon. "We've got a lot of roads that are still under water. There are probably 300 cars scattered around the county sitting under water."

More than 150 people remained in shelters in Suwannee and Pasco counties on Thursday.



Associated Press writer Tamara Lush in St. Petersburg contributed to this report.
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Somebody in here yesterday posted that the EURO model was forecasting a BIG El Nino of over 2 degrees celsius of warming in the pacific. That would make it like the 1997 El Nino as one of the biggest recorded. If anyone has a link or the poster is on now and could provide a link, Id be most appreciative :)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms

Are you forgetting it's June? I'm not expecting any of them to develop yet, it's just interesting they're coming off with more spin than usual for this time of the year. Waves don't really "die" when they enter the Atlantic, they just lose their convection and some enter the west Caribbean to cause mischief.
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Quoting Articuno:
All the SAL is north of the wave

mostly, it could still choke
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Quoting jeffs713:


I think one of the big players in waves developing in the MDR of the ATL is SAL. If the SAL is strong, waves won't pop. If it is weak, it will be a loooong season.

Lately, SAL hasn't been very gentle, so I'm guessing that Levi's call is spot-on. A fresh blast of dust is coming off Africa right now, too.


As expected. June and July are the peak months for SAL. It was very plentiful in 2010, but basically disappeared by August.
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All the SAL is north of the wave
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I hope a Modoki el nino does form.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms


Just say el niño. Some people didn't learn Spanish in high school.

You are adamant about wave deaths lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
ST. PETERSBURG --
Two Panama City area men believed dead and lost at sea were rescued Thursday as they drifted on a raft - almost a week after their boat sank in the Gulf of Mexico.


The U.S. Coast Guard told Bay News 9 on Thursday night the men were on a barge trip destined for Cancun, Mexico. Gerald Cheser and Vance Bryan, from Panama City, were ultimately bound for Belize.

Their boat sank Sunday in the Gulf, northwest of Tarpon Springs.


"We had been in the live raft for about seven days,'' said Bryan, retelling his ordeal Friday morning on dry land. "It was terrifying (but) we knew someone was looking for us. Thank God for the U.S. Coast Guard. Without them, it would have been over with.''

Cheser's mother, Joyce Bell, said her son and Bryan's barge capsized as a large wave hit them and it sank into the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the men to evacuate into a raft and begin drifting in the water.

The USCG in St. Petersburg received a call around 11 a.m. Sunday from a friend of one of the men stating the two men left from Captiva Island, south of Sarasota, on June 18 and were scheduled to arrive in Cancun on Saturday.

The men had not arrived on schedule and had not made contact with anyone to update their position in the Gulf, the person said. According to a USCG spokesperson, a C-130 aircraft was first launched from Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater around 1 p.m. Sunday to begin a search.


Bell said she and Cheser's family first received word that something was wrong Tuesday around 4 p.m.



A happy ending to that story and oh what a story they have to tell.
Three more people were rescued from rip tides yesterday at Clearwater Beach a day after 8 were rescued the day before in St Pete resulting in one fatality. The woman was in bad condition yesterday when transported to the hospital. No rip tide warnings here today and with a lot of people heading here for the 4th of July I hope it stays that way. How sad to go on vacation and go home minus a family member.

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Good morning to all from the left coast
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.


A lot of waves Get off of Africa and lose there convection, not saying it will happen but it may
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.


For those who may not know where the Gulf of Guinea is,here it is at the bottom right.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To further add to this, in my opinion, the east Atlantic won't be as dead as some are making it out to be. Conditions are still running below average to near average for TC development in that area, with no signs of changing anytime soon. While this season will probably be a close-to-home year, I still think we'll get a handful of Cape Verde hurricanes/storms.


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.


I think one of the big players in waves developing in the MDR of the ATL is SAL. If the SAL is strong, waves won't pop. If it is weak, it will be a loooong season.

Lately, SAL hasn't been very gentle, so I'm guessing that Levi's call is spot-on. A fresh blast of dust is coming off Africa right now, too.

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.........................outside of the heatwave and the fires, nothing else is going on,quiet now
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.

To further add to this, in my opinion, the east Atlantic won't be as dead as some are making it out to be. Conditions are still running below average to near average for TC development in that area, with no signs of changing anytime soon. While this season will probably be a close-to-home year, I still think we'll get a handful of Cape Verde hurricanes/storms.
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Stormtracker2k..you lurking? how is the baby doing?
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
water temp keep getting warmer look at the red now!!
might.accelerate.as.the.sun.gets.right.overhd.the .mdr.regions
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.........................GFS precip in 60 hours
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I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.
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Quoting Articuno:

Exactly could be trouble in the days to come
Or it couldn't ....could just die off...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.


hype artist :)
it looks a lot worse than yesterday and has less spin than the first AOI, but it is bigger.
It has no model support

NWS hiked the highs here 4 degrees last night, was supposed to be 100-101, now they have 104-105 which is similar to what accuweather had last night.
And i called accuweather hype.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.