Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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@662 I thought SHIPS intensity guidance had a 55 mph TS by Sunday?
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Quoting Tribucanes:
It's 81 today in central Wisconsin, been over 90 last three days, and will be for at least the next week. Dew point below fifty and low humidity. Living the dream, this is some seriously dangerous heat for most the rest of ya. Wave and blob are dancing nicely for us today. Whole blob making Texas landfall, or will a portion of it break off and remain where we saw it last night?
Get any of that rain?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


i hope that the wave comes to dominican republic, is very warm and dry here, but i think only if the storm develops before reach puerto rico , is the only way that turns west north west, and push the ridge up
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Quoting jeffs713:

That is very unlikely to happen, since prime formation time looks to be more than 48 hours out at that point.


it would take a huge blowup of convection
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.
Be patient....It is coming
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.


WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting jeffs713:

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.



isnt it variable from place to place?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.


WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!!

;)
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I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%
Even though it does not qualify its still very dangerous heat. Glad I don't have to mow the lawn today.
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I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
If we get an ORANGE circle at the 8PM TWO the blog will explode

That is very unlikely to happen, since prime formation time looks to be more than 48 hours out at that point.
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i dont believe it
dumb numerical models
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol


And so begins the florida casting
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh my gush and none are near me I want a little bit of rain at least.
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Somewhat intrigued as I go on Vacation in like 30 minutes. and next week heading to Galveston for the week Any developement needs to hold just 1 week.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.

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If we get an ORANGE circle at the 8PM TWO the blog will explode
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well 97L for sure has a lot of warm water waiting for it. I am guessing the main problem for 97L will be wind shear maybe dry air. If wind shear turns out to be low than I don't really see what will stop her.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am surprised they don't have heat advisory's out.


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol
Why would you wish that SFL? Please explain?
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Champagne! 97L is here IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN.
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Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Anythign up with the fast growing blob in the Gulf?


just some rain atm
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting turtlehurricane:
Doksuri is making landfall now to the north of Hainan island with winds of 40-50 mph. Missed Hong Kong well to the south due to a center relocation from the persistent shear.


It's actually making landfall just south of Hong Kong, IR imagery is deceiving with this storm (and has been most of its life). A recent ASCAT pass clearly shows the center near landfall just south of HK.
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It's 81 today in central Wisconsin, been over 90 last three days, and will be for at least the next week. Dew point below fifty and low humidity. Living the dream, this is some seriously dangerous heat for most the rest of ya. Wave and blob are dancing nicely for us today. Whole blob making Texas landfall, or will a portion of it break off and remain where we saw it last night?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


the main thing is.

what do the euro and GFS do with it?

and

When will Levi do a blog
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Anythign up with the fast growing blob in the Gulf?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol

Be careful what you wish for.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.
I have lived in south Florida for 28 years, but I have never been as hot as the time I have spent in Georgia... Must be our sea breeze.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


So BAMS puts the storm by the Cayman Islands, BAMM puts it near Jamaica, and BAMD puts it on the southern coast of Haiti. And LBAR nukes it from orbit.

Of some note is that SHIPS doesn't develop it until it is near the islands.
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97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I spent a few days in Madison Ga a few years ago........Such a beautiful city, but so so hot, Lake Oconee is a dream
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.
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The blog will blow up within the hour :) SHIPS wants a 55kt TS in 3 days and a near-TS by this time tomorrow!
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Hello. I haven't been on since the weekend. Does the GFS still have Debby hitting Florida instead of a TX landfall. Oh that crazy GFS. The NHC needs to do something about it. ;-) JK.

Just trying to take everyone's mind off the heat...
Did you know that:

today is the first June day to officially hit 100 degrees in Atlanta since 1954. Wow! The record for today is 101 and for all of June is 102.

Charlotte, NC is down to 100 this hour, but has gotten as high as 103 today, tying the June record set June 27, 1954. has opened a cooling station in uptown to help people get relief from the heat

Nashville, TN has jumped 5 degrees in the past hour to 103 as of 1pm CDT. June record is 106 and looks to be in jeopardy. Nearby Smyrna, TN is an amazing 108 degrees.

Washington, DC has officially tied its all-time June record high of 102 degrees at Reagan National. Still climbing.


Columbia, SC
has tied its all-time record of 107 degrees set six previous times, most recently on August 10, 2007. That means it's now a seven-way tie for the all-time record in Columbia, but it's only 2pm EDT and it may get even hotter today!

That 108 is also the June record for Bowling Green, KY; the all-time record there is 113 set July 28, 1930. Again, currently 106 in Bowling Green, KY.


At this hour:


Digging around for the current hot spots by state - we're finding 106 in Washington, GA and 104 in Muscle Shoals, AL.

Columbia is leading South Carolina with that 107, followed by Aiken at 106;
In North Carolina, Southern Pines appears to be leading the pack at 104 degrees this hour;
In Virginia, a sweltering 108 at Petersburg is the leading temperature;
while Maryland has a trio of 100-degree readings at BWI Airport near Baltimore; Frederick; and St. Inigoes.
Farther west, we have Smyrna, TN at 108 and;
Bowling Green, KY at 106
Missouri has a three-way tie with 102 in St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, and Poplar Bluff.
In Illinois, Cairo (at the state's southern tip) is sizzling at 106 degrees right now.
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STRONG 597 DM HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE OPPRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE FAIRLY
TRICKY TODAY AS GUIDANCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
THE QUESTION BECOMES IS GUIDANCE BETTER HANDLING THE EVENT OR DO
WE HAVE HISTORIC HEAT IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...VALUES WERE 103 TO 105...BUT NOT THE 107 AND 108
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR OUR AREA TODAY. LOOKED AT THE CIPS ANALOG
CASES FOR THIS EVENT AND FOR THE TOP 15 ANALOGS WE ARE SHOWING A
NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF SITES SEEING THE CENTURY MARK TODAY. IT
IS ALSO SHOWING A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 105 OR GREATER FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ANOMALIES IN PLACE FOR
925MB TEMPERATURE WHICH IS MAXED OUT OVER NORTH GEORGIA...FEEL WE
COULD INDEED BREAK SOME LONG STANDING RECORDS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN VALUES SEEN UPSTREAM LEADING
UP TO THIS EVENT...NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON THE 104 TO 108 VALUES
GIVEN BY GUIDANCE. WILL INSTEAD INDICATE 101 FOR ATL (TIES RECORD)
AND 102 TO 104 ELSEWHERE.


guidance is what accuweather used without a thought, but we will see how hot it gets
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I knew this at least would be an invest.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


101-102 at my house.
Doesnt feel that hot if the sun is not on you though because there is no humidity.

Last night the NWS raised the forecast highs 4 degrees at my house to 104 and i think it was a good move.
Surprisingly, Inaccuweather already forecasted 105 but their hypes was expected.
My only surprise is they didnt put 110.

Rome is supposed to be the hot spot
I am surprised they don't have heat advisory's out.
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StL hitting 100, supposed to get to 108 for 2nd day in a row, not fun in all those brick homes. Out here to its NE, we just hit 100 heat index, much higher dew point today, as expected. Wish we could get those storms to drop from north, but none in forecast so I guess we'll just bake. Hate to think what humidity will be this weekend as the high moves further east and taps the gulf even more. Stay cool! Edit - now 102 in Lou!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


And Louisiana


Can't forget our good neighbors :)
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
We are lucky humidity is not to much of a factor this time. Last year we had a heat wave in the low 100's up 90's with high humidity which was almost unbearable. I was in Statesbro playing golf :D.
I spent a few days in Madison Ga a few years ago........Such a beautiful city, but so so hot, Lake Oconee is a dream
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol I am in north Athens right now and its 103. We could get all the way to 108. Atlanta is going to get even hotter tomorrow.


101-102 at my house.
Doesnt feel that hot if the sun is not on you though because there is no humidity.

Last night the NWS raised the forecast highs 4 degrees at my house to 104 and i think it was a good move.
Surprisingly, Inaccuweather already forecasted 105 but their hypes was expected.
My only surprise is they didnt put 110.

Rome is supposed to be the hot spot
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

July 22.

Way off
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That has to be totally miserable with the Georgia humidity.
We are lucky humidity is not to much of a factor this time. Last year we had a heat wave in the low 100's up 90's with high humidity which was almost unbearable. I was in Statesbro playing golf :D.
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We have 97l now??????????
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Quoting weatherh98:


Oh thought it was! When is it?

July 22.
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SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Pretty good today. It's not as hot as the past few days. I think we failed to break the record today, so that's good news.

ha.


Yea I hear ya......... :)
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, no?


Oh thought it was! When is it?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.