Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Poll:

How strong does the BoC disturbance become before "landfall"?

A) Nothing
B) Invest
C) TD
D) TS
E) Hurricane


B
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535




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And one cannot say that there is bone dry desert between the ABC islands and the windward islands
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Poll:

How strong does the BoC disturbance become before "landfall"?

A) Nothing
B) Invest
C) TD
D) TS
E) Hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evidence that Pottery might be as old as Grother....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-186 02281

Pottery [...] in China to cook food and brew alcohol

By Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC


Evidence of 'Oldest pottery' found in China

The oldest known samples of pottery have been unearthed in southern China.

The US archaeologists involved have determined that fragments from a large bowl found in Xianrendong Cave, Jiangxi Province, are 20,000 years old.

The discovery, published in the journal Science, is the latest in recent years that have pushed back the invention of pottery by 10,000 years.

It is thought that the bowl was a cauldron to cook food, or possibly to brew alcohol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I found this on Answers.com...it's talking about Aruba, but i think that it would be the same for the ABC islands
"Aruba's climate is moderated by the trade winds. The trades are the prevailing pattern of easterly surface winds found in the tropics. The trades that affect Aruba blow from the northeast. In moving across the Atlantic from the northwest African coast, these winds drop rain on the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. By the time the trades reach Aruba they're holding a scant amount of rain."


That theory doen not really hold up. The same trades that hold scan amount of rain do dump a lot of it just 60 km away from me in Venezuela.

I think it is because the trades blow so strong that clouds are blown off the island before any convection can occur. Wind speeds on the mainland are way lower than here on the ABC islands and on the mainland there is a lot o rain.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

People keep saying that, but El Nino is clearly on the horizon. And from the looks of it, it may not be terribly weak. Seasonal totals should still be within the 10-13 range.


weak el nino is almost here. el nino 3.4 is already at .4
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I would be careful with discounting the BOC feature...conditions are very favorable with an upper anticyclone directly overhead and a surface trough/front trailing from Debby to work with (not to mention the warm SSTs). The surface trough was generated by upper divergence between the boundary of what was once Debby's warm core upper anticyclone and upper trough currently over the eastern US.

With ex-Debby...the new BOC feature...and the open Atlantic tropical wave being watched...is it really late June? Its more like August in here with the Atlantic tropics...unbelievable. I wonder if this early activity will continue into July...hmmm....


prolly not a new storm till late july early august
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Quoting KoritheMan:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282346
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I was about to post another one, but now no reason
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


With ex-Debby...the new BOC feature...and the open Atlantic tropical wave being watched...is it really late June? Its more like August in here with the Atlantic tropics...unbelievable. I wonder if this early activity will continue into July...hmmm....
People keep saying that, but El Nino is clearly on the horizon. And from the looks of it, it may not be terribly weak. Seasonal totals should still be within the 10-13 range.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would be careful with discounting the BOC feature...conditions are very favorable with an upper anticyclone directly overhead and a surface trough/front trailing from Debby to work with (not to mention the warm SSTs). The surface trough was generated by upper divergence between the boundary of what was once Debby's warm core upper anticyclone and upper trough currently over the eastern US.

With ex-Debby...the new BOC feature...and the open Atlantic tropical wave being watched...is it really late June? Its more like August in here with the Atlantic tropics...unbelievable. I wonder if this early activity will continue into July...hmmm....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282346
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


It rather impressive since its late June and there is a well define wave which is holding together in the face of Saharan Dust. All it needs is a good DMAX. To strengthen that 1015 mb low.


Andrew came back from a sprawling 1015 mb low. You never know...
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Quoting weatherh98:


ive seen blobs that look better than the CATL wave


It rather impressive since its late June and there is a well define wave which is holding together in the face of Saharan Dust. All it needs is a good DMAX. To strengthen that 1015 mb low.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Pre-Daniel looking pretty good (north of Panama):



May break the boredom in here. Temporarily.


it is!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Anthony "the brow" davis to the hornets "officially"
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Update on Debby's remnants on my blog...important for Bermuda interests...
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Quoting centex:
It was describe as a weak mid or upper low. Granted most recent NWS discussion just called it a low but I don't think it changed.


It's not an upper low. This can be seen pretty clearly. Here, I present UW-CIMSS vorticity data:

500 mb:



200 mb:



Do you see any evidence of a cyclonic circulation in the region of the "disturbance"? The actual trough axis is draped across the Texas coast.
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Mega-mega fires in Asia! MODIS 4000 mile wide view.

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Pre-Daniel looking pretty good (north of Panama):



May break the boredom in here. Temporarily.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The upper flow over the system is anticyclonic. If this were an upper low, we would expect to see cyclonic flow at the upper levels. That said, satellite imagery shows no circulation with this feature. At all.
It was describe as a weak mid or upper low. Granted most recent NWS discussion just called it a low but I don't think it changed.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
How about this for fast convection growth?

BoC Satellite



and



and



LSU ESL Low Clouds

Wow. Let's give this thing 12 to 24 and see what happens.

Right now it looks more promising than the mid Atlantic AOI.


ive seen blobs that look better than the CATL wave
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:


I'm MELTING. Headed home from work. You have a good night and stay cool.......


aint gotta tell me!!! im dying up here
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Hot in Denham Springs to.

hot in mandeville
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
Hanky panky in mid Pacific. MODIS satellite photo

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Besides torching forests and houses, wildfires throughout the United States are also releasing a lot of smoke and particulate matter into the air. A map created using data from a NASA satellite shows the location and amount of pollution wildfires raging across the West have spewed into the skies above the United States. The new map shows relative levels of tiny particles called aerosols, which have an important impact on weather and climate and are unsafe to breathe at certain concentrations. It was created by information gathered by the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite on June 26."
Link to webpage Link
Gotta wonder if all the particulate matter will increase the chance for some rain?

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Quoting centex:
It's a ULL suppose to give us slight change of rain this weekend. Moves into STX than mexico.


The upper flow over the system is anticyclonic. If this were an upper low, we would expect to see cyclonic flow at the upper levels. That said, satellite imagery shows no circulation with this feature. At all.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Last week:



Now:



Debby really put a dent in the Florida drought.
True story. With late June sunshine and heat like yesterday and today in Ocala...that dent won't last long.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, it was record highs in Hammond again for the 4th day in a row.

Very hot week it has been.

Take care.


Hot in Denham Springs to.
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It's a ULL suppose to give us slight change of rain this weekend. Moves into STX than mexico.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



and i this look at the flash loop of it and it is even spining i think a low is trying too fourm all so wind shear is low




Has a fully developed anticyclone above it, and only 5 to 10kts of shear near the core. It's also got a nice amount of moisture all over the western Gulf, at least for the present time.

Couldn't really expect a better environment.
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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:


I'm MELTING. Headed home from work. You have a good night and stay cool.......


Yes, it was record highs in Hammond again for the 4th day in a row.

Very hot week it has been.

Take care.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
How about this for fast convection growth?

BoC Satellite



and



and



LSU ESL Low Clouds

Wow. Let's give this thing 12 to 24 and see what happens.

Right now it looks more promising than the mid Atlantic AOI.
Suppose to move into Texas over weekend, keep it below 100 couple of days and give me a 20 percent chance of a shower, can you spell relief?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Thanks Angela for this blog. At the end of the discussion,she was talking about this big wave about to emerge West Africa but doesn't have model support.



Yea if one thing about the Atlantic wave is that if it ends up being nothing it has create a nice moist path for more larger and well develop wave over Africa. Its very interesting that we are still in June however the African wave activity is quite vibrant.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
How about this for fast convection growth?

BoC Satellite



and



and



LSU ESL Low Clouds

Wow. Let's give this thing 12 to 24 and see what happens.

Right now it looks more promising than the mid Atlantic AOI.



and i this look at the flash loop of it and it is even spining i think a low is trying too fourm all so wind shear is low


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Quoting RTSplayer:


Doing fine. You?


I'm MELTING. Headed home from work. You have a good night and stay cool.......
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Quoting hydrus:
very hot. 102 here..Hotter tomorrow..
Just think last year I had 25 days of 105 or greater highs, total hell. I can take 20 to 30 days of extreme heat but not 90 like I had in 2011. LOL
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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Thanks Angela. How's it everyone?


Doing fine. You?
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Thanks Angela. How's it everyone?
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How about this for fast convection growth?

BoC Satellite



and



and



LSU ESL Low Clouds

Wow. Let's give this thing 12 to 24 and see what happens.

Right now it looks more promising than the mid Atlantic AOI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
9 cyclonekid: Blog is slow today. :-(

It's the Rapture. I just wasn't interested what with holding front row tickets for the Mayan End of Times.
sold.out.i.ve.heard/http://www.mayanholidaze.com/ tulum/
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4723
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Quoting lightning75:


Yes the weather in the British Isles Is quiet shocking at the moment hail lightning tornadoes the works really. Of course its nothing as bad as what Florida has had to put up with but in relative terms it is bad I followed Chris after he became extratropical and merged with the low and believe the result is this .I notice that Debbie is expected is to attach to a fast moving low in a couple of days...so its definitely a depressing start to our summer
Link


Me too on Chris remnants.. Guess that's why were here!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Last week:



Now:



Debby really put a dent in the Florida drought.
What drought?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That was kinda weird... two bots in a row... lol

Afternoon all, and thanks 2 Angie for the new blog...

We had a couple more bouts of rain today compliments of the trough south of ex-Debby. I'll read a bit in a minute, but I gotta tell u this is one of the rainier ends to June and potentially starts to July that we've had in this area for a while...


I was on the first bot... and after reading an hour and a half bout the illuminati tonight just prior to hitting WU, got pretty scared with the lack of activity LOL!
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Last week:



Now:



Debby really put a dent in the Florida drought.
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Yeah, that disturbance is a true pop-up. It has no surface circulation to speak of, so it will need a day or two to get going.

May run out of water before that happens, but hopefully it will bring some rain to Texas.
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Quoting aspectre:
9 cyclonekid: Blog is slow today. :-(

It's the Rapture. I just wasn't interested what with holding front row tickets for the Mayan End of Times.
Nah. Can't be the Rapture; Angela the angelic is still blogging with us...

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That was kinda weird... two bots in a row... lol

Afternoon all, and thanks 2 Angie for the new blog...

We had a couple more bouts of rain today compliments of the trough south of ex-Debby. I'll read a bit in a minute, but I gotta tell u this is one of the rainier ends to June and potentially starts to July that we've had in this area for a while...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.