Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Quoting weatherh98:


Ive gotta give you props. you nailed the track of debby. I ate crow.
Thanks Bro!
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Quoting weatherh98:


sinking air reduces instability basically

correct?


Yes. That's basic meteorology.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yeah...the east side of an upper ridge wave in the westerlies...but what about a fully closed upper anticyclonic ridge over the central US like we have tonight?


The amplitude of the ridge over the central US is such that the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are fairly dry. This can be seen quite nicely on water vapor imagery. The only area that's favored right now is the western Gulf of Mexico, which is not coincidentally the only place with any sort of convection.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is it gonna be BOC,Mid Atlantic Tropical Wave,or Debby Resurgence back to a TS, Or a quiet few weeks??


50/50 chance.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is it gonna be BOC,Mid Atlantic Tropical Wave,or Debby Resurgence back to a TS, Or a quiet few weeks??


prolly a quiet few weeks
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Also had a F4 tornado move just a few miles from house growing up in Sanford, FL.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Someboy should do this cause i cant:



message from BDAwx:

Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to

me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm.

Thanks.


you just have to save some images of the storm as it passes north and anything you see that looks cool, you dont have to do the whole radar loop


Well...I did do something like this for Bermuda on my June 17 discussion (when I was discussing pre-Chris)...check it out at this link...

If this will make BDAwx happy (for Debby)...I will try...but I've also got a very busy schedule tomorrow...we'll see...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
During the el niño back in 1997 that December I picked up 17" of rain.


Ive gotta give you props. you nailed the track of debby. I ate crow.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Suppose to move into Texas over weekend, keep it below 100 couple of days and give me a 20 percent chance of a shower, can you spell relief?

This BOC feature and over in EPAC has had solid positive press with the TCFP for a week now. And our local forecast is plugging it in. May actually happen.
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Is it gonna be BOC,Mid Atlantic Tropical Wave,or Debby Resurgence back to a TS, Or a quiet few weeks??
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good evening guys it looks as if this years el ni�o will likely rival that of the 1997/1998 event. CFS2 and the Euro show sst's crossing the 2 mark come December. This means lots of rain and tornadoes this coming winter in FL.


and cooler air
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
During the el niño back in 1997 that December I picked up 17" of rain.
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Quoting weatherh98:


i cant

evening. did yu have workouts?


yes i did, now i want to watch OT but i cant so i will have to see what happens

have u watched it at all?

may have reached 100F today, i will have to check
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yeah...the east side of an upper ridge wave in the westerlies...but what about a fully closed upper anticyclonic ridge over the central US like we have tonight?


it would reduce shear but i dont know about the whole subsidence on this thing
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's mostly related to subsidence and/or confluence. The east side of a ridge is a very unfavorable spot for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.


sinking air reduces instability basically

correct?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Good evening guys it looks as if this years el nio will likely rival that of the 1997/1998 event. CFS2 and the Euro show sst's crossing the 2 mark come December. This means lots of rain and tornadoes this coming winter in FL.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's mostly related to subsidence and/or confluence. The east side of a ridge is a very unfavorable spot for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.

Yeah...the east side of an upper ridge wave in the westerlies...but what about a fully closed upper anticyclonic ridge over the central US like we have tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weather chat anyone?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Someboy should do this cause i cant:



message from BDAwx:

Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to

me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm.

Thanks.


i cant

evening. did yu have workouts?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

How does this dynamic work? With the presence of our central US heat wave...we've got convection in the west Atlantic tonight (in the BOC and over Panama for example)....


It's mostly related to subsidence and/or confluence. The east side of a ridge is a very unfavorable spot for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

How does this dynamic work? With the presence of our central US heat wave...we've got convection in the west Atlantic tonight (in the BOC and over Panama for example)....

most of that is from the ITCZ tropical waves
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Someboy should do this cause i cant:



message from BDAwx:

Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to

me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm.

Thanks.


you just have to save some images of the storm as it passes north and anything you see that looks cool, you dont have to do the whole radar loop
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting KoritheMan:


It may produce lower shear, but it would also rob the western Atlantic of convection. We saw this in 2010 with the Russian heat wave.

How does this dynamic work? With the presence of our central US heat wave...we've got convection in the west Atlantic tonight (in the BOC and over Panama for example)....
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
My mother-in-laws name is Debby. Things always seem to be better after she leaves.


monster-in-law
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I was saying next weeks (not just next 2 weeks)...this reminds me of 2011 last year when we saw persistent upper ridge over the central US. I know 2011 didn't have an El Nino...but I think a ridge like this again this year could numb the typical westerly shear we see with El Nino....just sayin...


it could if the shear is at the same level of the atmosphere
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting weatherh98:


in the next two weeks we will feel no effect of el nino because of atmospheric lag

I was saying next weeks (not just next 2 weeks)...this reminds me of 2011 last year when we saw persistent upper ridge over the central US. I know 2011 didn't have an El Nino...but I think a ridge like this again this year could numb the typical westerly shear we see with El Nino....just sayin...
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My mother-in-laws name is Debby. Things always seem to be better after she leaves.
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Was writing my Debby update...when poof her convection weakens from dry air and the NHC says they won't be ready upgrade her. Regardless...I still think she will bring rain squalls and some pretty gusty winds to Bermuda tomorrow...
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cajun crawtaters
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Quoting Patrap:
Im more a Zapp's Cajun Chips Man.


i like crawtaters
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Im more a Zapp's Cajun Chips Man.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got the fever for the flavor of a Pringle.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Well...I keep noticing the upper anticyclone (upper ridge) over the central US...associated with hot air from the parched & hot areas of the central US. Just watching that upper ridge flare up so easily from warm air transport (advection) ahead of the latest frontal system makes me wonder if we are going to see this a semi-permnanent feature for the next weeks or so....

If it does...wouldn't it counter the effects of westerly vertical shear from El Nino?...as the south side of such central US upper ridging produces upper easterlies insted of westerlies....


in the next two weeks we will feel no effect of el nino because of atmospheric lag
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Well...I keep noticing the upper anticyclone (upper ridge) over the central US...associated with hot air from the parched & hot areas of the central US. Just watching that upper ridge flare up so easily from warm air transport (advection) ahead of the latest frontal system makes me wonder if we are going to see this a semi-permnanent feature for the next weeks or so....

If it does...wouldn't it counter the effects of westerly vertical shear from El Nino?...as the south side of such central US upper ridging produces upper easterlies insted of westerlies....


It may produce lower shear, but it would also rob the western Atlantic of convection. We saw this in 2010 with the Russian heat wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
Quoting KoritheMan:

People keep saying that, but El Nino is clearly on the horizon. And from the looks of it, it may not be terribly weak. Seasonal totals should still be within the 10-13 range.

Well...I keep noticing the upper anticyclone (upper ridge) over the central US...associated with hot air from the parched & hot areas of the central US. Just watching that upper ridge flare up so easily from warm air transport (advection) ahead of the latest frontal system makes me wonder if we are going to see this a semi-permnanent feature for the next weeks or so....

If it does...wouldn't it counter the effects of westerly vertical shear from El Nino?...as the south side of such central US upper ridging produces upper easterlies insted of westerlies....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
I really figured NHC to up Debby back to forty percent orange cone, with this being an eighty percent red cone by this time tomorrow. If this, by some chance, hits hurricane status before all is said and done NHC going to be really asking themselves a lot of questions. I know what NHC is saying, but what is the real time wind speeds inside Debby right now, fifty or higher?


they will just say it was frontal and put out gale warning
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
On this day in 2005...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED...

AT 5 PM CDT...2200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 135
MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MOVING
INLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH


$$
NNNN



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A
SMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...THE CREW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PHONE IN KEY
OBSERVATIONS. OUR THANKS TO THE CREW FOR RESPONDING ON SUCH SHORT
NOTICE AND FOR THEIR PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO GET THE DATA OUT.

SO FAR...THE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A FEW SMALL SPOTS WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OVER 40 KT...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME THE CYCLONE
WILL BE OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND REACH THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2200Z 19.9N 95.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 20.7N 97.7W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$



Just for fun.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Negative comments toward me are only amusing coming from Cody. This simply isn't your niche, Harrison. ;)


*high fives kori*
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
I really figured NHC to up Debby back to forty percent orange cone, with this being an eighty percent red cone by this time tomorrow. If this, by some chance, hits hurricane status before all is said and done NHC going to be really asking themselves a lot of questions. I know what NHC is saying, but what is the real time wind speeds inside Debby right now, fifty or higher?
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Quoting Patrap:
Sorry, I NEVER poll on a Thursday.


you simply never poll
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468

Quoting weatherh98:


you know nohing.
Negative comments toward me are only amusing coming from Cody. This simply isn't your niche, Harrison. ;)
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Poll:

How strong does the BoC disturbance become before "landfall"?

A) Nothing
B) Invest
C) TD
D) TS
E) Hurricane

A, it'll dissipate tonight.
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Sorry, I NEVER poll on a Thursday.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

A. But what do I know?


you know nothing.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evidence that Pottery might be as old as Grother....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-186 02281


grothar is 64 million years old.

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468

Quoting RTSplayer:
Poll:

How strong does the BoC disturbance become before "landfall"?

A) Nothing
B) Invest
C) TD
D) TS
E) Hurricane
A. But what do I know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evidence that Pottery might be as old as Grother....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-186 02281


Ahh, they found ol Rover?

Man, we Buried Him deep I thought Gro?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Poll:

How strong does the BoC disturbance become before "landfall"?

A) Nothing
B) Invest
C) TD
D) TS
E) Hurricane


B
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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