Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz , 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

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The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

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Quoting KoritheMan:


We like to call that the Texas Death Ridge, a semipermanent feature of the last three summers.

Ah yes...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We like to call that the Texas Death Ridge, a semipermanent feature of the last three summers.

It wasn't there in 2010 or 2009.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
I posted this yesterday when it was slow. I made this in boredom...
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
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Good night to all. Just got back from watching some of the coverage and commentary on the Supreme Court decision about the Affordable Healthcare Act. I'm glad to see the US will be [finally] joining the rest of the modern world in ensuring access to quality health care for its citizens. [NOT getting into an argument about exactly how it's being done.... lol]

This is about the only thing that could pull me away from tropical wx on a Summer night.... lol



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What a great look at Mothernature's gift to cure the blog's boredom. Thanks beell. Fire could be talked about endlessly, but the loss, and huge uphill battle this season, and the negative vibe of it all just make it a sad subject. Sure praying for those folks.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Well, regardless of Debby's cold wake, it has seemed like the Eastern Gulf gets the cooler water the past few years, and the Western Gulf near Texas is always steaming hot.


We like to call that the Texas Death Ridge, a semipermanent feature of the last three summers.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
OSCAT pass over the "disturbance":



Yeah, it's only about about 1/3rd to maybe half of a circulation, but it's definitely not anti-cyclonic...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not long.

Well, regardless of Debby's cold wake, it has seemed like the Eastern Gulf gets the cooler water the past few years, and the Western Gulf near Texas is always steaming hot.
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Quoting beell:
False Color RGB Loop


Yeah. Now click on high and low level winds.

The anti-cyclone is upper level.

The low level winds are being enhanced by a mild pressure gradient with the ridge, and are most certainly blowing in the correct direction for a cyclone.


The mid level winds are admittedly screwed up, which I noticed and admitted, but it's only 10kts. The system can work that out, eventually, if it can just get through tonight in tact, and get an LLC going...
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OSCAT pass over the "disturbance":

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283. beell
False Color RGB Loop
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


saw 6-8 in 2 years ago.
ANd the snow lasted for 5 days with the help of a 1/4inch blanket of freezing rain on top.
It was wierd seeing ATL as TWC's top weather story for snow.
It was amazing, most snow i can remember seeing.
Apparently i saw more in Colorado and Alaska
And apparently i have been skiing.


That snowstorm ticked me off. Here we in Macon were totally jipped. 0.5-1 inch of snow with 0.5-1 inch of ice. Biggest let down ever. lol
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Cool water from Debby in the Northeast Gulf. I wonder how long it will stay there? Any thoughts?


Not long.
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Quoting beell:
...Clockwise...



Low level is counter clockwise / cyclonic, it just isn't a complete circle yet.

I can tell by the wind analysis and the nearby buoy two degrees north of it, where the winds are out of the ESE at 120 deg true ESE.

Pressure at the buoy IS falling, but only marginally... a pathetic few hundreds of an inch over the past few hours...
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Cool water from Debby in the Northeast Gulf. I wonder how long it will stay there? Any thoughts?
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278. beell
...Clockwise...
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277. etxwx
They're baaaaack.... China's Shenzhou 9 spacecraft returns to Earth
There is live coverage on CCTV now also.
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Quoting PackManWx:
I love how the moment any type of convection pops over water, this blog goes crazy wondering if it will develop haha

If this were true, we'd have about 14 named storms by now :)



True, but...

The convection currently has a better upper level environment than Debby ever had, and slightly warmer SST also, and finally, less land interaction for the next day or two than Debby ever had...
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Quoting Articuno:

Hey, what's up?

Hey.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
I love how the moment any type of convection pops over water, this blog goes crazy wondering if it will develop haha

If this were true, we'd have about 14 named storms by now :)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've seen a few two-county ones this year.

Hey, what's up?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
Quoting Chucktown:
This has got to be the smallest watch box that I have ever seen.



I have seen smaller.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
Quoting Chucktown:
This has got to be the smallest watch box that I have ever seen.



I've seen a few two-county ones this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, I love snow. I live in Louisiana for god's sake. What I don't like is cold. My personal mentality is if it's going to get cold, it had better be accompanied by snow. But 95% of the time where I live, that's only a fantasy.

To sum it up, I like it that way too,
If its cold, and it doesn't snow, then I don't like it.
(unless if there is snow on the ground previously)
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
Meh...It's going to have problems...

New wind overlays shows the mid level winds are all wrong.

It's practically anticyclonic in the mid levels.

I don't know if the upper level anticyclone has worked that far down or what, but whatever convection and LLC it gets is going to have to overcome that hurdle...

It's only 10kts, but still, the mid level is rotating the wrong way...
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This has got to be the smallest watch box that I have ever seen.


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Quoting sunlinepr:

Post tropical hurricane debby? lol
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
Quoting Patrap:
....Da dum,

da, dum...




LOL.

Waitin' to see if it's going to poof in another hour or two, or if it sticks around and tries to do something.
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Pressure at the nearest buoy is 1016mb exactly, but that's about 2 degrees north of the center, so I suppose it could be about 1014mb low...but I mean, a mere half millibar per hour drop could get it to TD status by tomorrow night, so it's not out of the question.
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Quoting Patrap:
....Da dum,

da, dum...




But doesn't Florida look pretty!
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....Da dum,

da, dum...


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Quoting RTSplayer:


It seems like the blob sprung up simply because the the available environment from the anticyclone, but it has almost no low level cyclonic rotation associated with it.

It appears to be stalled out for now, and does have 2 or 3 days before it's supposed to hit land, so assuming it can survive the night, it might just have a chance tomorrow...to earn invest status that is...


The AOIs in EPAC and BOC have been trading back and forth light blues and greens for at least a week now.
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Quoting westernmob:
Is that a ULL in the Western GOM?


No, not at all.

It is a pop-up blob of convection directly centered on an upper level anticyclone, with only 5 to 10kts of shear...

In other words, a perfect hurricane forming environment.


Unfortunately for the blob, it has no LLC as of yet, and will need at least a day or two to get one going, even if it can hold together...
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Hi Guys,



From 8 p.m. NHC Discussion:
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATE
SUN OR EARLY MON AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE.

Link Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

...GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ALL BUT THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED NEAR 23N93W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 91W-95W.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Fleetfox, I guess there's no low associated with the Gulf blob so, taking what I've gathered from the comments on said blob, so she may not do well overnight and essentially be void of available moisture to do anything. But if blob doesn't dissipate much at all tonight then it'll be possibly a different story tomorrow.


It seems like the blob sprung up simply because the the available environment from the anticyclone, but it has almost no low level cyclonic rotation associated with it.

It appears to be stalled out for now, and does have 2 or 3 days before it's supposed to hit land, so assuming it can survive the night, it might just have a chance tomorrow...to earn invest status that is...
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Is that a ULL in the Western GOM?
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If its vector were to remain constant, exDebby would pass 130kilometres(81miles) NNW of Bermuda
MinimumPressure dropped from 1000millibars to 997millibars
Maximum sustained winds held steady at 40knots(46mph)74km/h

EYW is KeyWest :: HNC is CapeHatteras :: BDA is Bermuda

The dot west of Florida is exDebby's final position as a TropicalStorm
The dot east of Florida is exDebby's final position as a TropicalDepression

Copy&paste eyw, 5fd0, komn, hnc, bda, 29.3n83.6w- 29.4n82.6w- 29.5n81.5w- 29.6n80.4w, 29.6n80.4w- 29.5n78.9w- 30.1n76.5w- 30.8n74.4w- 31.5n72.1w- 32.1n70.0w- 32.6n68.3w, 32.6n68.3w-33.512n65.099w, 32.391n64.675w-33.512n65.099w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
And the previous mapping in case continuity becomes desirable in the future.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Fleetfox, I guess there's no low associated with the Gulf blob so, taking what I've gathered from the comments on said blob, so she may not do well overnight and essentially be void of available moisture to do anything. But if blob doesn't dissipate much at all tonight then it'll be possibly a different story tomorrow.


Thanks! I'll keep an eye on it.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Over Panama now...

Lots of MJO nobody saw coming.

All the BOC/WGOM energy agitated de-coupled not absorbed by Debby is still agitated, has been. And the EPAC has been pumping even more energy over since before the Debby West/East wars even began. Numerous transient Highs have prevented any genesis, but here we see it now.
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whats going on with the gulf Blob? It's held together this afternoon and seems to have a nice anit-cyclone over it? any thoughts on that?
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Fleetfox, I guess there's no low associated with the Gulf blob so, taking what I've gathered from the comments on said blob, so she may not do well overnight and essentially be void of available moisture to do anything. But if blob doesn't dissipate much at all tonight then it'll be possibly a different story tomorrow.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
6 days old born 6/22/12 at 3:45pm.
Congrats my friend.
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Over Panama now...

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Quoting PackManWx:
i just don't see any of those waves amounting to much...

too early in the season and the dynamics just aren't set up right..


It this was late Aug, that wave would develop inmediatelly once in the water...

anyhow, interesting how it looks spining over land...
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Is it worth watching what's spinning in the southwest GOM?
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i just don't see any of those waves amounting to much...

too early in the season and the dynamics just aren't set up right..
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Up to now, Models don't even show that wave in Africa...

Link
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Lack of Spring snows brings on "the most destructive FireSeason in Colorado history".*

* Claim was made by state officials. Not sure whether they meant dollar amount, acreage burnt, or both.
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Wow the SAL even killed the blog
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like this wave won't be affected by SAL


It will be helped by the very moist wave in front cleaning the sal.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14567

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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