More record-setting heat; Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 15,000 acres

By: Angela Fritz , 7:17 PM GMT on June 27, 2012

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Tuesday's heat toppled many records in the Central U.S., particularly in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. On Monday and Tuesday combined, 11 locations tied or broke their all-time record high temperature, 78 locations broke their all-time record high for the month of June, and 382 daily high records fell. Some notable Tuesday records from our Weather Historian:

115° in McCook, Nebraska is the all-time record for any month. The old records for site are 114° 7/20/1932 and for June 112° 6/5/1933—both set in the heat waves of the 1930s. Yesterday's 115° at Mc Cook also broke the all-time Nebraska state June record of 114° which was set in Franklin in 1936.

105° in Denver, Colorado, ties Monday's all-time record, and ties the 5-day record for number of days above 100°.

101° in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the all-time undisputed record high for any month.

111° in Miles City, Montana is the all-time high for any month.

111° in Lamar, Colorado tied that all-time heat record in any month.

115° in Hill City, Kansas is the new June record, but fell short of all-time 117° reading, and one degree short of Kansas state June record.

110° in Dodge City, Kansas ties the all-time high for any month, which was just set last June.

Wheat Ridge, Colorado (103°) and Cedar Bluff Dam, Kansas (110°) also tied their all-time record highs on Tuesday. Our Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt, who mused that this heat wave is starting to shape up like the record setting heat waves of the 1930s, will have a full-length post on this week's incredible heat wave on Friday. Today the heat shifts eastward, with eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in an excessive heat watch, and eastern Kansas and western Missouri in an excessive heat warning. St. Louis could start to see 100°+ today, and Chicago will likely have their warmest day on Thursday. This heat wave will reach the eastern U.S. by Friday.

Waldo Canyon Fire engulfs parts of Colorado Springs

Firefighters are "on the offensive" on Wednesday as they fight the Waldo Canyon Fire, which started Saturday afternoon for reasons unknown. The fire is 5% contained as of Wednesday afternoon, though firefighters are using triage protocol, according to the AP, to save the homes that they are able to save. 30,000 people have fled their homes on Wednesday as the fire grew to over 15,000 acres. The region remains in a red flag warning as conditions continue to be unfavorable for fighting both this and the High Park fire, which continues to burn west of Fort Collins. Humidity is expected to remain around or less than 10%, and winds could gust up to 50 mph.


Figure 1. The Waldo Canyon Fire as seen on Wundermap, which is burning just northwest of Colorado Springs, and is 5% contained. This fire has engulfed over 15,000 acres since it began on Saturday, as firefighters try to fight the blaze under weather conditions favorable for wildfires.

Debby Says Farewell

Tropical Depression Debby is in the Atlantic and moving further out to sea and rainfall is winding down. Over the past week, Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. While still classified as tropical, Debby seems to be losing her tropical characteristics as it merges with the frontal boundary that guided it across Florida. The depression continues to be hammered by westerly wind shear, and could be classified as post-tropical or dissipate all together soon.


Figure 2. Rainfall accumulation over the past 7 days as of June 27. Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. Image modified from NWS.

Meantime, in the main development region of the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is giving an African easterly wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This is the first main development region activity we've seen so far this season, though its peak usually doesn't happen until later in the Summer and early Fall. This wave is producing some thunderstorm activity which is visible on satellite, and it appears to have moderate mid-level circulation. Wind shear in the region is relatively low, only 10-15 knots, and the wave is moving into a more favorable wind shear zone, which will remain until it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The moisture in and around this wave is also relatively low. I would also put this wave's probability of development at minimal over the next few days.

Angela

Waldo Canyon Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire from the Waldo Canyon wildfire burns as it moved into subdivisions and destroyed homes in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, June 26, 2012. (AP Photo/Gaylon Wampler)
Waldo Canyon Wildfire

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I'm awake, too! It does look good

Hey, Doug!



Yeah, the main blob of convection has held together very well, and is approaching the magic 45W mark, which I think it should pass some time late this afternoon or early evening.

It also seems to have somehow gained enough latitude that it will miss the S. American continent after all, in spite of the low level steering being contrary to N. motion...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hydrus:
Safe trip to you Gro.:)


Thanks, hydrus. You can still drop a line. I will checking every few days.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Debby still looks nice and Round

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Quoting Grothar:


I'm flying out this morning. I'll be leaving soon. Last thing I feel like doing. Long trip.
Safe trip to you Gro.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23829
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO 15N37W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
NOTED BETWEEN 35W-42W APPEARING WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2-3
DAYS. 700 MB LEVEL STREAMLINES ON THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW
SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
700 MB TROUGHING HAS BROADENED INTO MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH
BETWEEN 40W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N77W TO 18N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 74W-78W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BENEATH DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.



just as i said, it dies
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin fellas!


I hit the sack last night at 10. I gotta get out of here to go to work, otherwise I woudl've slept in till about 7:30.


I'm flying out this morning. I'll be leaving soon. Last thing I feel like doing. Long trip.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Speak for yourself!
(I got up at 4:50 am.)





I got up at 515

Im not but others are
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
AOI does look good! Especially condidering it's location so early in the season.
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G'mornin fellas!


I hit the sack last night at 10. I gotta get out of here to go to work, otherwise I woudl've slept in till about 7:30.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Wow.
When do you go to sleep if you wake up at 5 in the morning?

By the way, the AOI looks better than ever IMO.


Hey, I'm awake, too! It does look good

Hey, Doug!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Speak for yourself!
(I got up at 4:50 am.)




Wow.
When do you go to sleep if you wake up at 5 in the morning?

By the way, the AOI looks better than ever IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


No

we are lazy



Speak for yourself!
(I got up at 4:50 am.)



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Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting Bobbyweather:
VERY quiet right now. I'm really bored. It's 7:20pm here in Seoul so it would be 6:20am EDT. Don't people wake up by now?


No

we are lazy
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. I can say with confidence at this time that Debby will not redevelop...



thats the first thing i forecasted correctly about debby in her life time lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Meanwhile, it's just a typical cool morning here in SE TX. :)

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Jun 28, 3:55 am CDT

Fair

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: SE 5 MPH
Barometer: 29.98"
Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 89 °F (32 °C)
Visibility: 7.00



im already 78

dew point is 73
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Good morning. I can say with confidence at this time that Debby will not redevelop...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning
the catl wave looks a little better this morning but continues to be an area of disorganised showers and thunder showers. like in most systems so far this year ,there a a number of vortices spinning around a not too broad an area of low pressure. both the 700mb and 850mb vorticity levels are weak indicating that this system will take sometime to organise. what is going for this wave is the abundance of moisture which it is engulfed in and the low wind shear. there is also good convergence and divergence. the disturbed area has been able to nullify the effects of the dry air ahead of it as it continues westward. the wave is still far away and will have enough time to watch it.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Thats if there IS a season in the coming weeks.



The caribbean will be dry like a desert :(
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Umm... floater is still on for debby, and so is the ADT:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUN 2012 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 29:24:25 N Lon : 75:48:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1004.4mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : 15.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.3 degrees

************************************************* ***

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VERY quiet right now. I'm really bored. It's 7:20pm here in Seoul so it would be 6:20am EDT. Don't people wake up by now?
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
553 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-281500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
553 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINS FROM DEBBY. THE ANCLOTE RIVER
AT ELFERS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...ALAFIA RIVER AT
LITHIA...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...MANATEE RIVER NEAR
MYAKKA HEAD...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK WILL
REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

COLSON
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..Good Morning folks
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Gosh, the smoke here in Colorado has gotten so bad especially with my asthma. Every day since the High Park Fire has been pretty smoky haha. Hopefully this will calm down soon!
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Meanwhile, it's just a typical cool morning here in SE TX. :)

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Jun 28, 3:55 am CDT

Fair

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: SE 5 MPH
Barometer: 29.98"
Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 89 °F (32 °C)
Visibility: 7.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RussianWinter:


Well, ugly weather isn't going to stop just because it is our life time. Many of us have years to live and we will see more category 5 hurricanes affect various places in the Atlantic and other oceans.


Yes, I agree. Unfortunately. Mother Nature couldn't care less if you put a modern city in her way or an ancient one.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I couldn't imagine living here in 1886! Texas had four hurricanes that year and 2 of the hit Sabine Pass. Hurricane one and hurricane 10. Hurricane 10 was a major and a a rare October storm for us. Hurricane 8 came in south TX. But the worst was hurricane 5 that literally wiped Indianola off the map. Forever!

Indianola's residents relocated farther inland after the storm; the old town's ruins sit just offshore under 15 feet of water in Matagorda Bay.

The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the most important Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port.


I don't know what was going on in 1886 but I don't wanna see it again.


Well, ugly weather isn't going to stop just because it is our life time. Many of us have years to live and we will see more category 5 hurricanes affect various places in the Atlantic and other oceans.
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Quoting hydrus:
Imagine living in Western Cuba that year..Geez o pete..


I couldn't imagine living here in 1886! Texas had four hurricanes that year and 2 of them hit Sabine Pass. Hurricane one and hurricane 10. Hurricane 10 was a major and a a rare October storm for us. Hurricane 8 came in south TX. But the worst was hurricane 5 that literally wiped Indianola off the map. Forever!

Indianola's residents relocated farther inland after the storm; the old town's ruins sit just offshore under 15 feet of water in Matagorda Bay.

The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the most important Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port.


I don't know what was going on in 1886 but I don't wanna see it again.
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Based on the floater


Link

Looks like the circulation has gone under the convection. I knew staying up late was worth it guys!
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Four confirmed fatalities linked to Debby so far. Debby was cancelled by NHC a little early, but after the debacle of Debby forecast to Texas, I'm guessing they know what they're talking about this time. I really thought Debby was catching up to her energy ejected east and could strengthen, but NHC is saying........."No soup for you!"
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Also, this looks kind of interesting, it can prove that ex-Debby has a very slim chance of reformation.

How many damage and fatalities has Debby caused in Florida?
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Hello.
I see that Debby is no longer a tropical cyclone..
but you never know, it might regenerate if the convection develops close to the center and is not attached to a front.
Also, the area of interest in the Central Atlantic looks not that bad. I think invest status is likely in the next 24~36 hours or possibly sooner. According to the image below, the probability of this AOI forming is near 0.2%. So is post-Debby.

Anyways, it might be cool if the fifth storm forms before the start of July. (I've said this about five times now, but I like saying it lol)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Ran the java loop of the RAMSDIS floater and found it, it hasn't reached 40W and it's close to 11n.

Here is the loop.

It's actually exposed...



I see the spin under the convection. But I have been wrong efore. Anyway will be interesting to watch the buoy : Link

which should be close to it later on
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MAN STANDS AT WINDOW AS TORNADO BEARS DOWN This must be the Winter Haven Tornado.
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COUPLE FILMS TORNADO BEARING DOWN ON PASS-A-GRILLE it starts out as a water spout that moves onshore and notice the lights that were on and then the transformers blow. A second water spout follows the main tornado later in the video. By the way would this be classified as a wedge tornado?
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567. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Apparently the low level circulation persist,behind the big blob, around 41W 12N, ...


Ran the java loop of the RAMSDIS floater and found it, it hasn't reached 40W and it's close to 11n.

Here is the loop.

It's actually exposed...
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Quoting JLPR2:
That's the best it has ever looked, I wonder if there is still a defined low level spin or if it has deteriorated.

Apparently the low level circulation persist,behind the big blob, around 41W 12N, ...
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Wouldn't it be Ernesto if it redeveloped? Because it was entirely the same thing after it briefly merged with the front.
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563. CC45
Quoting RussianWinter:
I'll be watching the yellow circle tonight, this thing gets a little stronger day by day.

What does a strong El Nino does to winter though?


I believe an el nino winter would be warmer and dryer for the northern US and and wetter and cooler for the southern US.

For hurricane season, el nino decreases activity in the tropical Atlantic with high wind shears.
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An extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to dominate the GOMEX for awhile. Anything that does develop would be forced to Mexico or extreme S Texas.
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Quoting JLPR2:
That's the best it has ever looked, I wonder if there is still a defined low level spin or if it has deteriorated.



The spin is alive and kickin.
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Interesting, according to Wunderground, temperatures in many parts of Orlando are actually in the 60s, very unusual for late June. I wonder if temperatures will drop any lower tonight?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyone got any theories about why this "cool" patch exists between the Gomex and the UK and Finland, while it's bounded to the north and south by larger patches of insanely hotter than average waters?



Does the sheen from the BP Oil Spill have anything to do with this, or was that diluted to much to matter over the past two years?


I have no direct evidence for this but I am going to take a flyer on this question anyway.

Summer runoff from Arctic glaciers is well above normal this year creating an unusually large supply of water just above freezing. Could this plug of water get pulled into the thermohaline circulation belt and create an anomalously cold region in the middle of the Atlantic?

Just a guess.
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558. JLPR2
That's the best it has ever looked, I wonder if there is still a defined low level spin or if it has deteriorated.

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I'll be watching the yellow circle tonight, this thing gets a little stronger day by day.

What does a strong El Nino does to winter though?
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Whoa...slow night...so check back tomorrow. Goodnight all... -.-
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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