More record-setting heat; Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 15,000 acres

By: Angela Fritz , 7:17 PM GMT on June 27, 2012

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Tuesday's heat toppled many records in the Central U.S., particularly in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. On Monday and Tuesday combined, 11 locations tied or broke their all-time record high temperature, 78 locations broke their all-time record high for the month of June, and 382 daily high records fell. Some notable Tuesday records from our Weather Historian:

115° in McCook, Nebraska is the all-time record for any month. The old records for site are 114° 7/20/1932 and for June 112° 6/5/1933—both set in the heat waves of the 1930s. Yesterday's 115° at Mc Cook also broke the all-time Nebraska state June record of 114° which was set in Franklin in 1936.

105° in Denver, Colorado, ties Monday's all-time record, and ties the 5-day record for number of days above 100°.

101° in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the all-time undisputed record high for any month.

111° in Miles City, Montana is the all-time high for any month.

111° in Lamar, Colorado tied that all-time heat record in any month.

115° in Hill City, Kansas is the new June record, but fell short of all-time 117° reading, and one degree short of Kansas state June record.

110° in Dodge City, Kansas ties the all-time high for any month, which was just set last June.

Wheat Ridge, Colorado (103°) and Cedar Bluff Dam, Kansas (110°) also tied their all-time record highs on Tuesday. Our Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt, who mused that this heat wave is starting to shape up like the record setting heat waves of the 1930s, will have a full-length post on this week's incredible heat wave on Friday. Today the heat shifts eastward, with eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in an excessive heat watch, and eastern Kansas and western Missouri in an excessive heat warning. St. Louis could start to see 100°+ today, and Chicago will likely have their warmest day on Thursday. This heat wave will reach the eastern U.S. by Friday.

Waldo Canyon Fire engulfs parts of Colorado Springs

Firefighters are "on the offensive" on Wednesday as they fight the Waldo Canyon Fire, which started Saturday afternoon for reasons unknown. The fire is 5% contained as of Wednesday afternoon, though firefighters are using triage protocol, according to the AP, to save the homes that they are able to save. 30,000 people have fled their homes on Wednesday as the fire grew to over 15,000 acres. The region remains in a red flag warning as conditions continue to be unfavorable for fighting both this and the High Park fire, which continues to burn west of Fort Collins. Humidity is expected to remain around or less than 10%, and winds could gust up to 50 mph.


Figure 1. The Waldo Canyon Fire as seen on Wundermap, which is burning just northwest of Colorado Springs, and is 5% contained. This fire has engulfed over 15,000 acres since it began on Saturday, as firefighters try to fight the blaze under weather conditions favorable for wildfires.

Debby Says Farewell

Tropical Depression Debby is in the Atlantic and moving further out to sea and rainfall is winding down. Over the past week, Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. While still classified as tropical, Debby seems to be losing her tropical characteristics as it merges with the frontal boundary that guided it across Florida. The depression continues to be hammered by westerly wind shear, and could be classified as post-tropical or dissipate all together soon.


Figure 2. Rainfall accumulation over the past 7 days as of June 27. Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. Image modified from NWS.

Meantime, in the main development region of the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is giving an African easterly wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This is the first main development region activity we've seen so far this season, though its peak usually doesn't happen until later in the Summer and early Fall. This wave is producing some thunderstorm activity which is visible on satellite, and it appears to have moderate mid-level circulation. Wind shear in the region is relatively low, only 10-15 knots, and the wave is moving into a more favorable wind shear zone, which will remain until it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The moisture in and around this wave is also relatively low. I would also put this wave's probability of development at minimal over the next few days.

Angela

Waldo Canyon Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire from the Waldo Canyon wildfire burns as it moved into subdivisions and destroyed homes in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, June 26, 2012. (AP Photo/Gaylon Wampler)
Waldo Canyon Wildfire

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.


I agree.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
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i only need to close my eyes and imagine 200 mph surface gust winds in a full fledge CAT 5 cane

there will be nothing left but the dirt and the water
and the dirt may even be blown away as well to leave just bare rock
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I wonder if it doesn't come from the CATL wave?

No, not according to the models. It comes from this.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. That's to be expected though. It's June. There's no way it could develop? Right...? :P
Z

No way coday
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.
When they are in agreement, it's bound to happen
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Yes,The ridge generally move to the east when august is coming,but if you see in this gfs image in 144 hours will be july 6th and the ridge still to strong and over US at this time, if you see covers up texas, so still to see what happens but if the pattern continues will be a gulf season

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columbus wrote of such things in his diaries
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.


I wonder if it doesn't come from the CATL wave?
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Quoting Methurricanes:
Yes, Cat 5 winds in Tornados, but not a Hurricane, Fort Worth,TX and Springfield, MA have had tornados directly hit Highrises, and they survives, both F3s


Ok, that's a bit of a stretch, because only the upper end of F3 overlaps with the bottom end of Cat 5 sustained winds.

Camille was 190mph sustained, which is the upper end of EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita tornado scale, not counting gusts of probably 215 to 225.

Labor Day and Wilma (given the latest revision of it's wind speeds,) would be considered EF5 even if rated as tornadoes.

Plus a tornado lasts a few seconds to a minute or two for any given location.

A hurricane lasts several hours.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.

Yes. That's to be expected though. It's June. There's no way it could develop? Right...? :P
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but again there have been lots of places that have experienced these conditions and been pretty well wiped of the map
there are lots of reports in earlier days where large scale population centres for there time have disappeared and all that lived there as well
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before


I don't know of a large Metropolitan city being directly hit with the exception of Miami in 1926. While Andrew struck in Miami-Dade and there was very bad destruction North of the center, Miami itself was not directly in the path. I would say it was a good 15-20 South.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?
Yes, Cat 5 winds in Tornados, but not a Hurricane, Fort Worth,TX and Springfield, MA have had tornados directly hit Highrises, and they survives, both F3s
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?
of coarse not but we can not rule out the chance that sooner or later it will and can occur
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.


When aren't the conservative
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?


Not directly, at least definitely not on U.S. soil.

I don't know if a sky scraper anywhere in the world has every been in the eye wall of a legit cat 5 landfall...
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Quoting Grothar:
The ATL wave is currently under low shear



I always like to look at the 500mb heights.



I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.
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Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
The ATL wave is currently under low shear



I always like to look at the 500mb heights.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before
Did Miami even exist 20 years ago? Half that city was built in the last 15 years, lol.
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Still think it dissipated south of even here:

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Debby finally catching up to the moisture she ejected east. I'm thinking she may go back tropical as soon as tomorrow, and by Saturday if she can, for the first time ever, fill in the west side; then we may get a sixty mph TS again by late Saturday in my opinion. I don't think she's done putting on a show for us. NHC track has always been just a step slow with Debby, so we shall see.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting hydrus:
Hard to imagine what Miami would have looked like if Andrew plowed straight through it.


a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Prairieville.


Think I've heard of it LOL.
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Alright guys Im out for the night..Korithe..good theory!!

Until the next model runs, I bid you all adieu..
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yeah you right. We actually rigged down to evacuate for that rain shower lol. But we never left the rig. It passed then we went back to work. What part of SE La. are you? Denham Springs is where I call home.


Prairieville.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


I'll be honest, I have no memory of that storm, and that was just 2 years ago, and it must have passed right over me.

That's crazy, it must have been really weak...


I find it hard to believe it was even a TS... let alone have max winds of up to 45 mph.
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Quoting hydrus:
Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..


I'll be honest, I have no memory of that storm, and that was just 2 years ago, and it must have passed right over me.

That's crazy, it must have been really weak...
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.
. Amazing that you even had that..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22712
Quoting KoritheMan:


I kept thinking "Okay, seriously. Now is the time to terminate advisories. Yeah she's generating convection, but it's sporadic and disorganized."

I'm not bashing the NHC, as I realize the oil spill probably a played a large part in the continuance of advisories all the way to the coast, but it was obvious for quite awhile that Bonnie was not a tropical cyclone.


Yeah you right. We actually rigged down to evacuate for that rain shower lol. But we never left the rig. It passed then we went back to work. What part of SE La. are you? Denham Springs is where I call home.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Downtown Miami.
Hard to imagine what Miami would have looked like if Andrew plowed straight through it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22712
Quoting ncstorm:


I know up North they have cooling centers when they have their heat waves..I havent heard anything being initiated down here for those that dont have AC..having only a fan would only make things worst..


Yeah here in central VA the city of Richmond and Petersburg has set up cooling shelters. I believe they may have cooling shelters set up for suburban areas too... not 100% sure, depends on the area and how low end the neighborhoods are.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Downtown Miami.
and something that I did not take into acount was the large population growth over tha last 20 years in south Florida, but it is famous for its Hurricane vunerablity, unlike any West Florida or Northeast city.
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Quoting Terradad:
So the ridge in the US is going to move east and merge with or strengthen the Subtropical ridge?


I think so. So does the GFS.
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Quoting hydrus:
Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..


I went through my shower with more punch.
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Quoting ncstorm:


So you are debunking the "Pumping the ridge" theory?


The ridge does get pumped, but that is only with strong hurricanes. Moreover, the typical outflow pattern of a tropical cyclone generally doesn't allow for the ridge to become amplified to the point where it becomes a "super ridge".
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Must say, the central Atlantic wave have gained a lot of latitude and looks to be a contender for a legitimate threat to the Caribbean.

GFS brings is pretty high in latitude, but kills it over the larger islands.

Euro keeps it farther south, and seems to keep it as a wave or maybe even TD in the middle of the Caribbean.
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Evening all, I have lived in New Orleans since 2004......and this kind of heat, with no cloud cover and no off shore flow is something I haven't experience since that summer before Katrina. The SSTs in the Gulf are going to be insane if this continues for two months.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
They have been hit, Andrew was only 20 years ago


Not Downtown Miami.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Tropical Storm Bonnie... what a joke.
Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22712
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.


I kept thinking "Okay, seriously. Now is the time to terminate advisories. Yeah she's generating convection, but it's sporadic and disorganized."

I'm not bashing the NHC, as I realize the oil spill probably a played a large part in the continuance of advisories all the way to the coast, but it was obvious for quite awhile that Bonnie was not a tropical cyclone.
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So the ridge in the US is going to move east and merge with or strengthen the Subtropical ridge?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The center passed directly over my house in southeast Louisiana, and all she could show for it... was a wind shift.


Her pitiful remnants.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I have devised a theory as to why recurvature is so predominant in some years, while not quite so in others. The most recent example is 2010, where the subtropical ridge started out strong, bringing Alex, TD Two, and Bonnie into the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, a preexisting weakness within the subtropical ridge developed due to an unusually deep trough moving through the United States. Colin took advantage of this and followed the path of least resistance out to sea. Danielle followed shortly thereafter, and assisted the continuous troughs in deamplifying (weakening) the ridge. Earl, Fiona, and Igor would soon follow. The continuous barrage of hurricanes moving through the Atlantic ridge, coupled with frequent troughs moving through the eastern US, disallows for a mean storm track toward the United States coast. Amidst that pattern, the ridge simply can't rebuild. It doesn't have time.

Venture your thoughts, criticisms, applauds, what have you. I'm ready.


So you are debunking the "Pumping the ridge" theory?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


what about Miami?
They have been hit, Andrew was only 20 years ago
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The center passed directly over my house in southeast Louisiana, and all she could show for it... was a wind shift.


I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
2 citys that are most unprepared for a Hurricane are Philly, and Tampa.
Tampa is tradionally thought of as a vunerable city that has lucked out.
Philly, at the head of Delaware bay would get desemnated by storm surge, as Delaware bay is about a funnel that would sent a large swell of water into the city, and specificly its southern areas. for this too happen, the storm has to have a westward componate up the coast of Delaware, so it would be a difficult storm to happen, similar to a NY storm, only a 100-125 miles south.


what about Miami?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean tropical thunderstorm Bonnie.


thunderfart.. thunderstorm... call it whatever you want.
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2 citys that are most unprepared for a Hurricane are Philly, and Tampa.
Tampa is tradionally thought of as a vunerable city that has lucked out.
Philly, at the head of Delaware bay would get desemnated by storm surge, as Delaware bay is about a funnel that would sent a large swell of water into the city, and specificly its southern areas. for this too happen, the storm has to have a westward componate up the coast of Delaware, so it would be a difficult storm to happen, similar to a NY storm, only a 100-125 miles south.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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