Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


he can't do any worse a job....lol

Unless he were to reform and then poof a day after.
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After such an exciting couple of days dealing with dumb Debby, I am in the airport awaiting a flight to Maine to cool off for a couple of weeks. I trust you bloggers will keep Debby from staying away from my area while I'm enjoying m vacation :p
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1157. pcola57
Quoting cloudymix:
Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.


Quoting pcola57:


Contact them here and sumit a "Query Ticket"..It gets their attention and they have always helped me .. :)
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Quoting guygee:
Speaking of which, Debby has been in the rotation since at least 1982. If she wants the 30 and out retirement package she's gonna have to work harder.

I think she'll wait until she's 48.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Maybe he'll try to NOT poof, before coming ashore...


he can't do any worse a job....lol
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Quoting LargoFl:
.....................GFS at 78 hours precip..look at all the moisture coming along out of Afica

All that rain is normal... Its the ITCZ causing it.
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I agree with no retirement for Debby...
Retirement= A catastrophic storm that is warranted retirement because it could be a sensitive discussion if it were to be kept as a name for the next cycle, especially(Ex. If Ivan was kept as a storm name, and went into the caribbean in 2010 and came toward the Caymans and Jamaica, You don't want people that already dealt ,and suffered loss, with Ivan of 04' to have to deal with a Ivan of 10') Basically. Debby won't be retired, but definately remembered to some as the worst rainmaker since Allison/Fay.

I believe we will get a retirement this season though.
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Quoting SouthTampa:
What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.

California. It has quite the variety of weather - Near-perfect: San Diego; Snowy: Tahoe; Cool: SF and north coast; Hot: Central Valley and Smog: LA.
U nailed it bud.in the winter ya can ski at big bear,afternoon 70's at the beach,and then ya can go to the desert for 80,s,its all good,just ignore the earthquakes and santa ana fires!
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.


What do you mean "deleted" the total precip? If you mean that the numbers that used to show up have since gone to "0", that's because the storm is over, and thus, storm total is reset for the next storm. The data was not "deleted" in any way, you just need to look for it in another manner.

Some of the best estimates of precipitation from the NWS will come from the river forecast centers because higher accuracy of precipitation estimates increases accuracy of the river models.

Please see:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

Both sites allow you to download archived data to view on your own or store for your own purposes.
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1150. guygee
Quoting cyclonekid:
Fay wasn't retired in 2008. I doubt Debby will be retired, but there's always a slight possibility.
Speaking of which, Debby has been in the rotation since at least 1982. If she wants the 30 and out retirement package she's gonna have to work harder.
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1149. pcola57
Quoting cloudymix:
Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.


Contact them here and sumit a "Query Ticket"..It gets their attention and they have always helped me .. :)
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Doesn't it look like Debby is moving South East. Wouldn't it be fun if Debby did a loopdeloop and came back to the east coast of Florida like some of the Models suggest?
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1147. guygee
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
The vast majority of Floridians will be grateful. I am in a strange position of living on a very well-drained barrier island (officially unnamed but known as the Space Coast). Even Fay with her 2 feet of rain was well-drained here before a week passed. Not far inland, in Melbourne the unfortunate inhabitants of the infamous "Lamplighter Village" had their homes flooded for several weeks.

When the summer sun beats down without rain for a week in my vicinity, the soil dries very quickly and becomes hydrophobic. I would rather see regular normal weekly rains then this feast or famine rainfall pattern.
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but they're both considered trolls?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No. I know for a fact Taz is not GAstormz.

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1145. LargoFl
.....................GFS at 78 hours precip..look at all the moisture coming along out of Afica
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting allancalderini:
Really that would make them affect CA and Mexico. I thought this year was a USA landfalls.

Its a Caribbean runner type season, but steering patterns would put every runner into the Yucatan or Gulf coast.
Gulf coast you better look out...
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Per the earlier NCEP Caribbean forecast I posted (link below) that wave will possibly bring some rain to the Greater Antilles (which is a good thing) but the "x" factor will be the trajectory (per the ridging at the moment) and whether it will track south, north, or through them...........Not on the radar for any significant development at this point.

Link

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Quoting dartboardmodel:
I am still not convinced that Debby will be history, I know what the models say but I don't like the visible sat. In particular, I don't like the angle she is moving at, it looks she still wants to decouple from trough and she is at the very end of the trough which can always be tricky. Call me a fool, but I won't be satisfied until she starts moving northeast.

As for the wave in Central Atlantic, if you look at the water vapor sat. You can see a ton of dry air ahead of it but it looks like the wave is generating its own moisture. And the northwest quad on the visible sat. has some really nice banding going on. I would bump this baby up to a 20 or 30% invest. The kicker is there is nothing to shear it apart... it's clear sailing if it generate its own moisture. Could this be an earlier indicator of the CV season kicking in?

More like, showing that it's almost that time of year.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 85% chance

Alberto and Beryl definitely won't be retired. I don't think Debby will be retired either. She did cause significant flooding, but she did not park over a major metro area, and her likely damage total will pale in comparison to Allison of 2001. If she had parked over an area like Tampa, and dumped 20+ inches over a wide area, then yes, she stands a decent chance of retirement. As is, she didn't quite get to that catastrophic level. (that said, she did significantly impact many people's lives, and that cannot be diminished in any way)
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Quoting plutorising:
trolls. still trying to figure it out.  taz is the same guy as georgiastormz???
No. I know for a fact Taz is not GAstormz.
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My guess is that the Tropics will take a break like they did during the beginning of June, and then the solid activity will kick off and we'll see back to back storms more and more... until October. Then the season will die.
May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
Debby
July
Ernesto
Florence

August
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce

September
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine

October
Oscar
November
None
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1138. icmoore
I guess it's just me but the right side of the blog is cut off so no way to plus, ect. and it's not allowing me to quote. I need to get up anyway I want to walk over to the beach this afternoon and check it out. Have a great afternoon.
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1137. LargoFl
.........................GFS at 300 hours..for some reason Florida is wet again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 85% chance
Fay wasn't retired in 2008. I doubt Debby will be retired, but there's always a slight possibility.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
But it still helps.
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1134. LargoFl
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
...............yes and the rivers are still flooding but in a few days people will be able to get back in their homes,this storm showed people..who needs flood insurance real bad..this was probably the most rain we will ever get outside of the once a century Monster storm..real glad i chose high ground,instead of close to the water like my wife wanted..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Most of the waves will be taking that track, this year.
Just wait until they start developing near CV. It gonna be a nasty season for the caribbean and the gulf.
Really that would make them affect CA and Mexico. I thought this year was a USA landfalls.
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Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.............................GFS precip at 42 hours

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
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1130. LargoFl
.........................GFS precip at 150 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
1129. guygee
Quoting jeffs713:

No, he is a troll trying to badly impersonate Taz. And still failing.
Thank you for the explanation...I should have seen that one. Turning a blind eye to that guy now and forever.
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trolls. still trying to figure it out.  taz is the same guy as georgiastormz???
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1127. pcola57
Quoting 12george1:
Anyone got a satellite image of Debby?


See post #1104..and don't forget to zoom.. :)
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Vertical instability in the Atlantic is significantly below climo which means that the odds of a system spinning up out there now are very low. The more stable the air mass the harder for systems to form and develop.

We are still about 14 days early to pay too much attention out there.

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Ignore the troll. It's not there. What troll are you talking about? I don't see any troll.
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1124. LargoFl
.............................GFS precip at 42 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 65% chance
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Quoting guygee:
Examples, please? Or are you also "weaksauce".

No, he is a troll trying to badly impersonate Taz. And still failing.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm going to guess a very strong high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep this low and traversing west through the Caribbean kind of like Dean and Felix.

Most of the waves will be taking that track, this year.
Just wait until they start developing near CV. It gonna be a nasty season for the caribbean and the gulf.
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1120. guygee
Quoting tazmaniad:
maturity level on this board is pretty weaksauce
Examples, please? Or are you also "weaksauce".
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I am still not convinced that Debby will be history, I know what the models say but I don't like the visible sat. In particular, I don't like the angle she is moving at, it looks she still wants to decouple from trough and she is at the very end of the trough which can always be tricky. Call me a fool, but I won't be satisfied until she starts moving northeast.

As for the wave in Central Atlantic, if you look at the water vapor sat. You can see a ton of dry air ahead of it but it looks like the wave is generating its own moisture. And the northwest quad on the visible sat. has some really nice banding going on. I would bump this baby up to a 20 or 30% invest. The kicker is there is nothing to shear it apart... it's clear sailing if it generate its own moisture. Could this be an earlier indicator of the CV season kicking in?
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Quoting guygee:
I am seeing the same thing...I think there is a good chance the NHC is eager to wash their hands of Debby and name her extratropical in the next advisory or by tonight. There is so much dry air in the vicinity that even if she gets left behind it seems unlikely that she can regenerate. However, if they discontinue advisories and then Debby regains TS status the NHC will go from having egg in their face to having a face full of three-egg omelette with fire-roasted peppers and onions, fresh spinach and mushrooms folded in with diced tomatoes and shredded Cheddar cheese.

Can I have a side of Bacon to go with that?
Sounds Delicious...
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Quoting ncstorm:
138 hours in
Strong wave coming off Africa.I don't see why the models don't at least develop the current wave into a weak T.S.dry air is the only inhibiting factor.But the wave is creating it's own moisture field agents the SAL...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The GFS and Euro are showing Daniel in the EPAC within the next 10 days.
They form it from a Monsoon trough and the tropical wave currently sitting in the Central Atlantic.
I'm going to guess a very strong high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep this low and traversing west through the Caribbean kind of like Dean and Felix.
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Is recon planning on doing anymore trips over to Debby, or are they done?
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Quoting LargoFl:
The BAM suite continues to insist it will go back into the Gulf. Interesting. Too bad, they are of low quality.
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<
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

If the ridge were to capture her, she could stick around a couple of more days... UGH go away Debby, unless you want to come to Texas, we would love for you to pay a short little visit.
With Debby there is no such thing as a short little visit.
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1110. guygee
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well looking at the NHC radar out of Melbourne it looks as if Debby is ESE of St. Augustine just NE of Cape Canaveral.In the discussion it mentions it's possible she may get left behind by the trough on some models. If this is the center she is still moving ESE, but if they can't tell where the center is, I'm sure I can't either. Just for discussion sake hope she's in no mood for a Bahamas vacation.
I am seeing the same thing...I think there is a good chance the NHC is eager to wash their hands of Debby and name her extratropical in the next advisory or by tonight. There is so much dry air in the vicinity that even if she gets left behind it seems unlikely that she can regenerate. However, if they discontinue advisories and then Debby regains TS status the NHC will go from having egg in their face to having a face full of three-egg omelette with fire-roasted peppers and onions, fresh spinach and mushrooms folded in with diced tomatoes and shredded Cheddar cheese.
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Good morning.

After Debby it looks as if things will be quiet for the next week in the Atlantic basin. The GFS drops the low that is now out in the central Atlantic and the NHC is presently calling for dissipation near 55 W.

A break will allow everyone to catch up on their sleep.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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