Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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Kudos to Washingtonian and Tropicspr for sticking with the wave and calling for development!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mamasteph:
uh,,excuse me but we like to think of it as 1 big Beach...lol
Lol.Believe or not D.C is also a swamp.That's why it gets so humid here in the summer.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


12 times?
never been bitten.
never had a bee sting.
never broke a bone.
you know, i think im pretty well off..

Never got bit,
Got stung by a yellow jacket when I was little and there is still a big purple scar,
and I have never broke anything but I have been close 3 times.
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FROM THE 5PM FORECAST DISCUSSION (SEEN THIS A FEW TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
 I GUESS THIS MODEL HAS GAINED SOME RESPECT WITH THEM.)

THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS
NOT AS QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
BOTH BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.
																	
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XX


Thanks Keep. Looks pretty good for an early-season wave.
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Good Evening
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The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

whatever your posting, it's not working.
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Quoting PackManWx:


On average.. I know there are lots of variables that go into it


at least a week and a half

IF it goes to florida
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Is Debby taking a jog to the SE?

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Quoting washingtonian115:
She will likely regain T.S status when she finally exist Florida.Florida is just one big swamp.
uh,,excuse me but we like to think of it as 1 big Beach...lol
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298. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I am speechless by the fact that this wave is doing so well considering the large amounts of SAL in the area. If it manages to continue shielding itself from it a TD or even a minimum TS wouldn't surprise me at all. Even though I said I highly doubt it yesterday.
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Link
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Quoting EricSFL:
How come TD Debby still has the TS symbol?
She will likely regain T.S status when she finally exist Florida.Florida is just one big swamp.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
XX/AOI/XX
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Evening all. Just want to let u guys know Debby has arrived in the Bahamas... We are on our third round of rain / thunder storms for the day here in the city.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


weather chat?
Gimme a minute I need to get my computer
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When the rat snake bit me, I didn't have a chance to put it down. Was a fat six footer who had relaxed, or so I thought, while I was showing it to my friends. I relaxed my grip only so much, but it was too much. It bit me twelve times in under two seconds. I couldn't put it down fast enough! I'm pretty sure I had it coming though. :)
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Quoting weatherh98:
*FACEPALM*


On average.. I know there are lots of variables that go into it
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Quoting PackManWx:
if that tropical wave actually made it to florida, what day are we looking at? how long do they take to get from there
it will be july before it ever got into the gulf..no telling if it would be florida bound
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
How come TD Debby still has the TS symbol?
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Quoting weatherh98:


.02 close and vanderkaay didn't make it!


weather chat?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
first long track circle


Can you do a sat. zoom in on that Keep?
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Quoting PackManWx:
if that tropical wave actually made it to florida, what day are we looking at? how long do they take to get from there
*FACEPALM*
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............................GFS at 90 hours..precip
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right now shear is favorable.The dry air is killing it now.But a tropical wave never losses it's structure(unless shear tears it to bits.)


As Levi says
We shall see what happens
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if that tropical wave actually made it to florida, what day are we looking at? how long do they take to get from there
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wind shear seems low olny 5 too 10kt so we may have a too watch it


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That storm with the yellow circle on it, is on the ten, not going to make it. IMO
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Quoting weatherh98:


And the GFS has been right
Right now shear is favorable.The dry air is killing it now.But a tropical wave never losses it's structure(unless shear tears it to bits.)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dat was close.
cant wait for the final


.02 close and vanderkaay didn't make it!
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Quoting weatherh98:


I don't care who wins they are both good


dat was close.
cant wait for the final
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Phelps, no its lochte
No phelps now wait lochte

Okay it's lochte
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Does any model develop that yellow circle?
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Ya, growing up in rural N.C, I caught probably well over 100 snakes, much to my father's displeasure. Was very lucky to never be bitten by copperheads and moccasins which I encountered weekly at least. Picked a baby moccasin up, not knowing it was a moccasin, brought it home and my poor mother about passed out. It didn't bite me though. Ya most snakes strike only once, but some do it in lightening session. Wow, I did underestimate the threat of those fire ants. Reading some stories of them getting into nursing homes in Florida, so sad. So I've learned, swim towards the snakes and away from floating ant colonies and gators. :)
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what kind of upgrade did the GFS get!! dannngg!
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If you get bit 10-times in succession by the same snake... it's probably trying to make a point. The snake is telling you it doesn't like what you are doing.

If it bites you the 11th time... it probably is really angry and decided not to stop at ten.

If it bites you the 12th time... it probably wishes that you stopped doing whatever upset it 10 bites earlier. The snake was communicating, but you weren't understanding.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS shows that wave at least making a run at T.D status....before killing it.Let's see what happens with this one.Highly doubt anything would come out of it that's major....but this season has already been whacky...


And the GFS has been right
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Pretty impressive this time of year for the central/east Atlantic to have something brewing. It is at a low enough latitude to actually keep an eye on. They usually will curve out to sea at this time, but I do believe we have enough ridging to the north to make this an AOI to watch
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first long track circle
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The GFS shows that wave at least making a run at T.D status....before killing it.Let's see what happens with this one.Highly doubt anything would come out of it that's major....but this season has already been whacky...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Quoting LargoFl:
..GFS runs it up along the east coast into new foundland when it does begin to move northward..just ran the java model..takes too long to post here


Thanks for reading my post! I think the models as of now are under-forecasting the potential for strengthening over the gulf stream. With any deeper system in that area, I just have a tough time believing it will get grabbed so rapidly northeastward. Looking for more model runs to see if the slowed motion becomes a trend. Also looking for intensity trends as well. After that we can look at what is going to drive Debby.
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LoL I guess KEEPEROFTHEGATE won... lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You must stay inside all the time.


He must not do squat
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You must stay inside all the time.


nope, im always outside, had a lot of close calls, but nothing ever happened.
Ive killed more honeybees than i can remember, and fallen out of numerous trees and off many ladders but nothing has happened.
my friends used to call me indestructible
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For some reason, my settings went to show average. So I apoligize for posting a duplicate post.
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Quoting ncstorm:
yep just saw it too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933

HERE IT IS
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Yellow circle on the NHC site.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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