Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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Quoting floridaT:
that line of rain in north fl looks like a winter cold front
..sure does huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
.....................almost looks like it wants to sink down to Daytona and Orlando
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
on the last satellite pics looks like storms starting to fire around the center. IMO
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And the blog is dead...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
that line of rain in north fl looks like a winter cold front
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I don't know everyone...
You say the AOI wave won't develop because of dry air... Here's my reason it might.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
The CATL wave has major SAL issues up ahead, but I think it can make it to 97L if the GFS is correct.

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Quoting LargoFl:
....whoa, thats a real bad line moving thru gainsville and coming southward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :)
Greatest likelihood for such waves in early July is in the Caribbean. A lot depends on how much SAL is still in the area as it approaches 50W...

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Since the GFS has been very good with this storm, I am not concerned about a loop back into Florida from the Atlantic until or unless the GFS gets on board...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...



More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera
Good idea..you might even want to leave before that..during the fires of 98 here in fla..I spent the day hosing down the house and trees from the hot ash..was packed..and then we got evacuated around 11pm and roads were packed..good luck and stay safe...
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whoooo hooooo a yellow circle let the debate begin
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Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...



More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera


You are burning, we are drowning... We need to level this out somehow.

Good luck and I hope that you have a plan and are getting your irreplaceable valuables together just in case. That is a freaky sight to see out your back door.
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Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...



More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera
stay safe and best of luck to you
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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like it IS sinking southward huh..or is the rain field just expanding?

From what I can tell by air pressure readings and wind barbs the center is roughly around Levy County a little se of Cedar Key.
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342. etxwx
Quoting Tribucanes:
Ya, growing up in rural N.C, I caught probably well over 100 snakes, much to my father's displeasure. Was very lucky to never be bitten by copperheads and moccasins which I encountered weekly at least. Picked a baby moccasin up, not knowing it was a moccasin, brought it home and my poor mother about passed out. It didn't bite me though. Ya most snakes strike only once, but some do it in lightening session. Wow, I did underestimate the threat of those fire ants. Reading some stories of them getting into nursing homes in Florida, so sad. So I've learned, swim towards the snakes and away from floating ant colonies and gators. :)


Very true. Ordinarily, poisonous snakes (unless they are really ticked off) will not give you their full load of venom on the first strike. They'd rather give you a warning jab first. (But don't count on this) Imported fire ants have no such compunction. They bite first and often...doesn't cost them a darn thing...they will keep on stinging until you get them off you. I'm very live and let live when it comes to critters (I like snakes - they are great rodent control) but imported fire ants are in a class by themselves. They are aggressive not simply defensive. They truly are a scourge in the southern states. And they are expanding their range. Oh boy.
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Quoting ncstorm:
what kind of upgrade did the GFS get!! dannngg!


I mentioned earlier,I want somma dat!!!....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133
Quoting Jax82:
been raining here non-stop in Jax Beach for some time now, the exit to ponte vedra from butler is closed due to water covering the highway, and i just drove down 1st street and a lot of it has 1-3 feet of standing water, I let out about 4 inches of water in my pool this morning and its already full again!

And for the second straight day...a record rainfall.

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Jacksonville...

a record rainfall of 4.11 inch(es) was set at Jacksonville today.
This breaks the old record of 3.37 set in 1996. Updates will follow
tonight.
stay safe up there, i rermember here..4 inches turned into 14 inches in one day, then we still got MORE gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :)

I agree, looking at it again it is even below the ten, may be 7, clouds spin there all the time. It's too far south. Around 13 to 20 are the storms that may do something.
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Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...



More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera


all those trees in front of the fire to burn
all between the fire and your house.

hoping for the best for you.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting RadarRich:
The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen..
hey atleast its something new to watch.
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Quoting JLPR2:


i usually don't pay attention to the waves off Africa until they are above the 15 degree line..usually they are the ones that make a beeline across the Atlantic straight for Florida..lol..but then this is 2012..anything goes..
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335. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:

We might even get another circle out of this one soon.


Now that would be amazing, even if the waves don't develop.
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334. Jax82
been raining here non-stop in Jax Beach for some time now, the exit to ponte vedra from butler is closed due to water covering the highway, and i just drove down 1st street and a lot of it has 1-3 feet of standing water, I let out about 4 inches of water in my pool this morning and its already full again!

And for the second straight day...a record rainfall.

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Jacksonville...

a record rainfall of 4.11 inch(es) was set at Jacksonville today.
This breaks the old record of 3.37 set in 1996. Updates will follow
tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...

............good idea..stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Quoting MrMixon:
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...


OMG. I would be scared to darn heck.
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...........bad line of storms down in manatee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case...



More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera
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Quoting charlottefl:
FROM THE 5PM FORECAST DISCUSSION (SEEN THIS A FEW TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
 I GUESS THIS MODEL HAS GAINED SOME RESPECT WITH THEM.)

THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS
NOT AS QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
BOTH BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.
R E S P E C T. Find out what it means to me. Yep the GFS earned it.
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Quoting JLPR2:



We might even get another circle out of this one soon.
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Quoting LargoFl:
just imagine if it does get to a TD..5th storm before july
The wave will have trouble with dry air.But if it can sustain moisture then it'll probably attempt to develop once it get's near the islands.

sorry I can quote all of you all.But I'm showing support by plusing(I don't care if it's spelled wrong). your comments.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like it IS sinking southward huh..or is the rain field just expanding?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
I don't like that Bermuda High setup KOTG...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
256 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [TropicalWeatherOutlook map]

Oddly, I woke up this morning expecting that yellow circle west of CapeVerde to be there... literally upon waking up. Then was momentarily confused when it wasn't on the TWO before remembering it hadn't been there last night. Still spent the rest of the day wondering why it wasn't appearing.
Must have some weird (but unremembered) dreams to wake up that way.
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322. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Fat ave about to come off of Africa.


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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
After looking at the water vapor loop earlier in the afternoon, I didn't expect Gainesville to be getting the "Tallahasse" treatment from Debbie. It is raining harder now than at anytime this past Sunday.
that may just happen around you for a day or two,the system is that large
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
320. JLPR2
Quoting WxLogic:
The ATL AOI will have issues once it detaches itself from the ITCZ:



And all of that SAL will give me prime weather for painting and cleaning the backyard tomorrow. XD
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Fat wave about to come off of Africa.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS shows that wave at least making a run at T.D status....before killing it.Let's see what happens with this one.Highly doubt anything would come out of it that's major....but this season has already been whacky...
just imagine if it does get to a TD..5th storm before july
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36933
After looking at the water vapor loop earlier in the afternoon, I didn't expect Gainesville to be getting the "Tallahasse" treatment from Debbie. It is raining harder now than at anytime this past Sunday.
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At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Believe or not D.C is also a swamp.That's why it gets so humid here in the summer.
And i thought it was from all the politicians...lol.
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The ATL AOI will have issues once it detaches itself from the ITCZ:

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Quoting RadarRich:
The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen..


the GFS did..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548
312. JLPR2
Quoting PackManWx:
if that tropical wave actually made it to florida, what day are we looking at? how long do they take to get from there


The last I looked it took until the 2-3 of July to reach Puerto Rico so probably double as long to get to Florida.
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There's a lot of severe weather going on in Canada this evening, with tornado and thunderstorm watches and warnings galore, mainly in Saskatchewan..

Meanwhile, not too much farther south, things were pretty toasty in Montana. Yes, Montana:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
231 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT MILES CITY
MONTANA...

AS OF 230 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT MILES
CITY HAS BEEN 111 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES AT MILES CITY. THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES WAS SET ON JULY 23RD AND
24TH 2007...JULY 14TH 2002...AUGUST 7TH 1995...AND AUGUST 7TH
1949.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS ALSO BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD HIGH OF
106 DEGREES FOR JUNE 26TH...WHICH WAS SET IN 1988.

THE TEMPERATURE AT MILES CITY MAY STILL CLIMB HIGHER TODAY...SO
UPDATED RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE FINAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IS RECORDED.
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correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the long range GFS show a very large ridge over the eastern conus on July 6 that would essentially block any system from interacting with the conus during that time?
Member Since: June 21, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
Kudos to Washingtonian and Tropicspr for sticking with the wave and calling for development!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14548

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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