Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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709. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:20 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Are some bloggers still Texas dreaming????????? Puuuullleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeeee!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
708. 7544
3:19 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
whoaaaaaaaaaaaa she did moving sse good ole debbie what other trick she has to play out
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707. sunlinepr
3:19 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
706. Tribucanes
3:18 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
COC still partially over water looking like it wants to get slingshot NE. She still is producing squalls south of Tampa, impressive. Debby should now go NE at almost six mph by morning, if not faster, after turning due east in a couple hours.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
705. TampaSpin
3:18 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Looks like DR. M's blog is messed up...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
704. Tropicsweatherpr
3:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Point well made.
But Climo. has not been part of this year's strong suits, so far.
Not sure what to expect, anymore.


Good point. As we have seen so far in 2012,some weird things have occured such as normally dry months in PR like Febuary and March were wet,and starting by Mid-May thru all June,almost no rain combined with very warm temperatures that have broken many records. And the 2012 season started like a bang with Alberto and Beryl in May,followed by Chris that turned into a Hurrican so early and in the North Atlantic almost at 40N.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
703. RTSplayer
3:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Quoting lobdelse81:

If this does develop, down there in the main development region, then I will start to get goosebumps about what the rest of the season may hold.



So much for the theory of a cold MDR, it seems on the rise.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
702. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Quoting charlottefl:
Debby is obviously rapidly weakening. Winds are way down from just a few hours ago... Nothing above 30 even in gusts...



I was going to say that,but didn't want darts fired at me...lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
701. JLPR2
3:16 AM GMT on June 27, 2012
Really nice structure for a wave in June, with a very defined spin.



I'm feeling like staying up until the sun hits it in the morn. Would be like practice for the peak of the season. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

If this does develop, down there in the main development region, then I will start to get goosebumps about what the rest of the season may hold.
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Quoting Grothar:


He lurks! How you doing, pott.

Doing Good!
Enjoying the Banter and Forecasting Expertise around here.

It's all good.
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.
Hello Everyone

I'm BC and this is my 'first post' here, newest of newbies

I do enjoy writing with metaphors, at times, so hope you can keep up

And let's just say I got here cause Debby blew me off course ;-)
.

In time may start some type of 'thread' of my own, we'll see
(helps to learn the ropes some before just yankin' on 'em, yes ? )

But do know a little about Weather and Tropics and Water and Air
And also know what I don't know, and difference between it all
Which can come in handy at times, if ya know what I mean (ahoy)

Been in and around all this since I was born, and ...
At times been 'in and around' it more than wanted (yea, not fun)

Debby, and this Season, been a curious animal, NIna/Nino something
Global Pattern Movement, all that type of 'stuff', 3 names gone in May

And sure know this ... many/most computer programs are confused ;-)

Debby sure was byatch slappin' 'em all over the place, yea ?

Sorry, but that's hilarious to me ... and I do know some 'math/yada'
Do have some 'official background', one teacher who was Big Time
So hope you just 'trust me' on that part, will explain when time comes
And those are the type of 'things' do hope we can get into with depth

But for now ... hope you can 'see' the Truth I'm pointing at with Debby

Ok ... here's a 'forecast' ... let's see how good I am (smile)

The 'same forces' that formed Debby, are now what's also ripping here apart, that 'cold front' down from Canada/wherever. This is about 4 or 5 of these 'fronts' to reach this far south this late in the Season/Spring (is how we got those other 'named storms' earlier, pretty uncommon for May) Maybe can expect those fronts back in March/April yes, but is 'late' now ... that 'fair/correct' ?

Yes, the Water Temps/etc are all factors, and some of you do all the 'official math' on all this, i'm just 'reading' the pictures and maps and historical patterns, dig ?

Now, if we do not get real 'movement' in the 'global patterns/jet streams/etc'
If 'everything' pretty much stays the 'same' as it has been last few weeks
Then after this current front, and Debby, do their thing ?

Should see Debby's Sister following behind in week or so (so to speak)

Ok, that a 'specific enough' forecast ?
Maybe in the 'ballpark' or close in 'some fashion' ?
(maybe not this front, but the next one ... for example ? )

Does my forecast hold any water ?
Any computer program/forecasting 'verify' ?
Do we need to wait couple weeks ?

(anyone even follow my 'meteorologically metaphorical musings' ? ;-)
.

Well, there you go, figure if gonna jump in the water here

Let's make it a Good Jump (smile)

And we'll see how my 'forecast' plays out, ok ?

Thank You All ... Later, BC
.
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Quoting Grothar:
This just came in:


Reuters) - A monster Colorado wildfire raging near some of the most visited tourist areas in the state took a turn for the worse on Tuesday as hot winds pushed flames north, prompting the evacuation of 7,000 more people, officials said.

Colorado's so-called Waldo Canyon fire sent a mushroom cloud of smoke nearly 20,000 feet into the air over Colorado Springs near Pikes Peak, whose breathtaking vistas from the summit helped inspire the song "America the Beautiful".

Closer to the blaze, which has been fanned by winds blowing into the Southern Rockies from the prairies to the east, trees were visibly twisting from the heat of the flames.

The latest evacuations brought the total number of people forced from their homes to about 12,000 as the blaze posed a renewed threat to hundreds of dwellings and appeared to have roared to within about a mile of the U.S. Air Force Academy grounds in Colorado Springs.


They just said on that live feed that they've ordered 32,000 evacuations...

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Quoting pottery:

You can say whatever you like.
He probably won't understand.......

:):))


He lurks! How you doing, pott.
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Quoting Grothar:


Some of them are doing fine. Kman has always been the gentleman and pott, well. What can one say about our resident sage?

You can say whatever you like.
He probably won't understand.......

:):))
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This just came in:


Reuters) - A monster Colorado wildfire raging near some of the most visited tourist areas in the state took a turn for the worse on Tuesday as hot winds pushed flames north, prompting the evacuation of 7,000 more people, officials said.

Colorado's so-called Waldo Canyon fire sent a mushroom cloud of smoke nearly 20,000 feet into the air over Colorado Springs near Pikes Peak, whose breathtaking vistas from the summit helped inspire the song "America the Beautiful".

Closer to the blaze, which has been fanned by winds blowing into the Southern Rockies from the prairies to the east, trees were visibly twisting from the heat of the flames.

The latest evacuations brought the total number of people forced from their homes to about 12,000 as the blaze posed a renewed threat to hundreds of dwellings and appeared to have roared to within about a mile of the U.S. Air Force Academy grounds in Colorado Springs.

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Quoting Grothar:


Those fires are incredible to watch. I don't recall ever seeing anything that bad in Colorado before.


And that's just Colorado Springs area. They are getting the most attention because of the threat to a densely populated area. There are numerous other fires, including the massive High Park Fire near Ft Collins, and another fire near the mesa lab of NCAR in Boulder. I know other states have fires as well.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Different time of year though. Ivan was peak CV season, not late June/ early July. The hostile Eastern Caribbean remains to be traversed as well. All in all low odds IMO

Point well made.
But Climo. has not been part of this year's strong suits, so far.
Not sure what to expect, anymore.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
G'night, kman...

I'm out as well. Unfortunately have to get out early, and would like to avoid the puddles and so on.

Enjoy, and see u sometime tomorrow...
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
Meanwhile, in Colorado...
There are reports that the Flying W Ranch near Garden of the Gods in NW Colorado Springs has been burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire. If this were true, the fire would have cross over the last ridge between the source and the city itself, and would be literally within 1mi of the edge of the suburbs. Looks like they expanded the evacuation area into portions of the city.

A fire near Boulder also was very near the NCAR.


Those fires are incredible to watch. I don't recall ever seeing anything that bad in Colorado before.
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Ya RTS, it was only one model that got it right to start with........lol, so don't disregard the BAMM.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting kmanislander:


Different time of year though. Ivan was peak CV season, not late June/ early July. The hostile Eastern Caribbean remains to be traversed as well. All in all low odds IMO
I feel u... well, this is definitely one to watch just for the interest. I'm not so keen on anything developing right now with that high set up the way it is. :(
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Well that's all from me for tonight. Great seeing you all on. Get some rest while it is quiet !
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Quoting BahaHurican:
YW... yeah, we did a good job with the first lot... now we gotta get the next generation going... lol... kman not included...

lol


Some of them are doing fine. Kman has always been the gentleman and pott, well. What can one say about our resident sage?
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Wow ScottLincoln, this is terrible news. Shaping up to be the worst fire season on record. With virtually all the nations resources to fight these wild fires on scenes, we are stretched very thin to deal with any more. Welcome to the new norm I guess. Praying for a lot of people tonight.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting sunlinepr:
The begining of the CV season?



A little early, but soon!
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
Meanwhile, in Colorado...
There are reports that the Flying W Ranch near Garden of the Gods in NW Colorado Springs has been burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire. If this were true, the fire would have cross over the last ridge between the source and the city itself, and would be literally within 1mi of the edge of the suburbs. Looks like they expanded the evacuation area into portions of the city.

A fire near Boulder also was very near the NCAR.


Homes burning in NW suburbs of Colorado Springs:
http://www.krdo.com/news/WATCH-LIVE-KRDO-NewsChan nel-13/-/417220/14776454/-/12eydmxz/-/index.html
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
Meanwhile, in Colorado...
There are reports that the Flying W Ranch near Garden of the Gods in NW Colorado Springs has been burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire. If this were true, the fire would have cross over the last ridge between the source and the city itself, and would be literally within 1mi of the edge of the suburbs. Looks like they expanded the evacuation area into portions of the city.

A fire near Boulder also was very near the NCAR.
Wow... amazing to think this fire is that close to the Springs....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
But 7. something with a 5 days to cross and a sufficient northward drift would bring our latest AOI [is it 97L now?] up to about 10N by the time it's ready to enter the CAR... which is why I was saying W Car is a possibility for development.

Anything in the next 5 days would be pretty surprising to me.


Different time of year though. Ivan was peak CV season, not late June/ early July. The hostile Eastern Caribbean remains to be traversed as well. All in all low odds IMO
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Caribbean Storm Update For June 26th 2012 with Dave

Blog Update

img src="">

Link
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WTNT44 KNHC 270301
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE CENTER OF DEBBY MADE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AT AROUND 2100 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS TURNED
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A GUST FRONT FROM
THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME
ELONGATED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO AROUND 1000 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE
CHANCE THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 125/6. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DEBBY...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR...THEY AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW TO ALLOW THE CENTER TO CROSS FLORIDA AND REACH THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE CENTER STALLING OFF THE U. S.
COAST...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...GFDL...AND HWRF MOVE IT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AT VARYING SPEEDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION...AND IS A BIT FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF
THE CENTER RE-FORMS WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE ATLANTIC. IN 36-48 HR...THE
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD REDUCE THE SHEAR AND PROVIDE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD STILL BE NEAR DEBBY AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD PREVENT THE
MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 29.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.7N 75.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 39.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
BAMM goes west...



lol...just saying.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Debby is jogging southeast because of the stalled energy NE of her. This energy should continue to influence her movement almost back due east by tomorrow morning. She should use this energy to strengthen and come together with the energy east to become formidable. And then, it's back to model prognostication.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Don't remind me :-(
Sorry I know you saw him at his worst!
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 931
Meanwhile, in Colorado...
There are reports that the Flying W Ranch near Garden of the Gods in NW Colorado Springs has been burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire. If this were true, the fire would have cross over the last ridge between the source and the city itself, and would be literally within 1mi of the edge of the suburbs. Looks like they expanded the evacuation area into portions of the city.

A fire near Boulder also was very near the NCAR.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Ivan was classied as a TD at 9.7 N as I recall
But 7. something with a 5 days to cross and a sufficient northward drift would bring our latest AOI [is it 97L now?] up to about 10N by the time it's ready to enter the CAR... which is why I was saying W Car is a possibility for development.

Anything in the next 5 days would be pretty surprising to me.
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Quoting taco2me61:
There's no End to Debby..... She will do what ever she wants to do and Florida is the Target this time..... Sorry Guys....

Taco :o)


Just imagine..

What if a tropical cyclone formed somewhere in the Gulf in June, as Debby did. And then... Imagine if this storm proceeded to slowly meander around the perimeter of the GOM in a series of slow, wide circles.. for months! Imagine every single inch of Gulf of Mexico coastline from Mexico to the Florida Big Bend and back again getting lashed with flooding rains, whipping winds and storm tides, every few weeks and all season long. Just imagine!

For one thing, this blog would either spring a leak or it would go soaring off into the cosmos. For another thing, the entire scientific community of planet Earth would be shaken to its foundations. By December, most people, including most scientists, would be convinced that we had all entered some bizarre alternate reality.
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Quoting charlottefl:



Good times. Lot of changes, lots of new faces. Can't post as often as I'd like, but been trying to keep up with Debby..


Hey, at least your still around. That's what counts.
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Chances of the Central Atlanic AOI forming:
30%
Chances of the Wave emerging off of Africa forming:
35%

IMO
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Quoting kmanislander:


If you run this shortwave loop you will see that the center is becoming less well defined. Interaction with land will not help. Those bands have pushed out well ahead of what remains of the low center. That is where the flow is heading.


Thanks.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
It's right on or near the coast of Citrus County according to the NHC.
Hi, here in New Port Richey / Trinity border, looks like it's heading straight for us...
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
He also became cat 5 more Times than any other Storm!!


Don't remind me :-(
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Getting another downpour from Debbie's outerbands, with some substantial gusts.

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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Thanks, and doesn't it appear that her Center has become less broad due to land interaction?

Look at how the Bands have formed..



If you run this shortwave loop you will see that the center is becoming less well defined. Interaction with land will not help. Those bands have pushed out well ahead of what remains of the low center. That is where the flow is heading.
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I have to say. That wave behind the AOI in the Central Atlantic, sure is interesting, Maybe a possible storm coming from the Cape Verdes forming near the Islands of coarse...
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Quoting kmanislander:


Ivan was classied as a TD at 9.7 N as I recall
He also became cat 5 more Times than any other Storm!!
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Yeah I think the LLC is just about ready to collapse. Has become very elongated. Shear and dry air, and then land interaction has taken too much of a toll on the system. Doesn't mean FL won't still feel effects, but I think this is the end of Debby.... (for now)....
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Baha. Yes, I too miss the good old days on the blog. But I think we have some very nice, enjoyable and knowledgable people on the blog now.
YW... yeah, we did a good job with the first lot... now we gotta get the next generation going... lol... kman not included...

lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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