Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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Follow this loop and you'll see where the center of Debby is.
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808. emguy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The 0z HWRF, which has been quite good this year since its upgrade, takes Debby very close to NC



Huh? Okay...I'll take the bait. The HWRF failed miserably with Debby. In fact...it was the very last to defect from a westerly course...well after the other did and a solid 24 hours or so after the EURO did. Overall, the HWRF was the worst model of them all by far.

Debby is so elongated and embedded in the trough now that she is basically dead already. She's pretty much absorbed into the elongated low pressure trough now and really is not a distinct tropical system any longer. She's likely to just fade away from here on out. Otherwise, her vorticity may cruise out along this low pressure axis on a path to the ENE, and it is no longer a threat to North America.
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Well its late and I have got to pack it in. All I can say is that, after Lisa in 2010, this storm will get much stronger in the sun this AM unless it self-destructs from multiple centers. Even when Lisa did literally fly apart, the >1000 mile span of converging flow tends to bring things back together again.

The center is not clear, but as it rocks back to the SE the new center will tie into large feeders from ENE all the way around to due W. The real wild card is the old center cruising along the NW quad of the new center. I think it may be rotating in circles.

It will all be clearer by the afternoon ...
I am just a little disturbed that the predictable move to the SE after the dry air intrusion (to tie the front back together) and after the collapse of the sheared CoC (loss of anchor pushed SE by ridge) is a predictable move that is now threatening the Bahamas and nothing is said about that danger.

It may become alot clearer soon.
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Good morning. The 0z HWRF, which has been quite good this year since its upgrade, takes Debby very close to NC

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...Good morning folks, HEY..no wind out there!! lol....good riddence huh..no more debby for us..the clean up begins for me today finally...have a great day folks and i hope those people in the path of those fires have left and are now safe
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803. emguy
I think it's safe to say we are seeing Debby receiving the death blows now. She is certainly there...but becoming increasingly entrained into a sharp trough. This is likely it for her, but appreciation awarded for the NHC playing the correct choice in keeping the door open on petential reorg in the open Atlantic.

Earlier, I mentioned a piece may be getting left behind in the extreme eastern gulf. With new satellite images, it is impossible to agreee on the notion that anything is getting left behind. Indeed, we are seeing everything getting stretched out into a long trough. It's the almost certain end to Debby and I'd expect no surprises coming up on her tail end trough in the Gulf. She's finally done, may she rest in piece...she's done far more than enough to good people.
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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...AND IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
12H 27/1800Z 30.0N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 32.0N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 35.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 45.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

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Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "DINDO" (DOKSURI)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Tropical Storm "DINDO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon.

At 4pm today, 430 km East Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora (15.9°N, 126.7°E) with Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center gustiness of up 90 kph.Forecast to move WNW at 19kph.

Forecast positions:
Thursday afternoon: 190 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Friday afternoon: 210 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Saturday afternoon: 620 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes

Public Storm Warning Signal #2: Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela
Batanes Group of Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt.Province

Public Storm Warning Signal #1: Ilocos Norte
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Aurora
Ifugao
Nueva Viscaya
Quirino
Benguet

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm "Dindo" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section which may trigger landslides and flashfloods.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "DINDO" and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
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I believe we might see some development in the Atlantic headed towards the caribbean sea! Looks similar to Gustav 2008.
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Colorado WREX-TV live stream..... Link

Colorado Springs and El Paso County, Colorado Fire and EMS
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like there's been some sort of centre relocation w/ Debby, to the east coast of FL near the projected exit point on this map.




It is south of where it was supposed to get to Wed nite - Thurs AM

Debby is heading SE - it is backing up towards you Baha!
I think it will stop backing up when the southern arm is attached all fat and happy in the next hour or two. IMO she blows up into a serious storm after that. Either that or just blows up from multiple centers.

AniGIF from CIMSS shows the new center forming and sucking in the old CoC up to 0445 UTC. Old Center shows as dot in middle of FL at end.

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Looks like there's been some sort of centre relocation w/ Debby, to the east coast of FL near the projected exit point on this map.



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
Floater SWIR / IR2 Loop from 0015 to 0715 shows the previous main CoC rotate around and into the outer ring of the new CoC - check the black dot flying in a circle from the GoM coast over to the Atl coast across FL.
The new center moves further south - that's a power move that will close up the split the dry air created - this thing will be huge by dawn. 
Exciting times and so glad it naturally occurs out in the Atlantic over warmer water. 
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Well, there I was, fast asleep, minding my own business, when...

BANG!

there was a sitting-up-straight-in-bed loud clap of thunder, followed by a white-bright flash of lightning and another thunderclap.

Naturally I got on the blog... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
That radar loop that emguy posted makes it seem as though an LLC raced over Florida very quickly, or was that just a ghost circulation? Either way, I think the epic wind shear just saved Florida from a couple more days of Debby. Perhaps that circulation I saw was her back-up copy swooping in to save the day while the old parent circulation withers and dies in the gulf... or something.
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yup...
on the other hand, I think the center is almost emerging from Florida. The center may have relocated to the main convection.
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slow tonight
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Quoting Tazmanian:




some of you may be get this am uesing good chrome 20 wish this came out and evere time i re lode the page for new commets this come up


This webpage is not available
The webpage at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2136 might be temporarily down or it may have moved permanently to a new web address.
Error 330 (net::ERR_CONTENT_DECODING_FAILED): Unknown error.


The quoted url has a space in it that would result in that sort of error.
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Quoting emguy:
My word of caution would be...Something is getting left behind....
Agreed....
New CoC forming in Atlantic is the dark circle covering
~all of 29-30N between 78 and 81W and then some
Has very tall convection rising from several points...

Can't quite tell if it has sucked in the old center - black dot at 81.7W29N or if the old center rebounded into GoM.
This is all really bad news because Debby about to blow up as she sinks back into her tropical flow and links up with at least 3 solid arms over the next few hours.  The covers many square miles - it is wider than Florida right now but will likely contract into a powerful tropical storm.
Heading ESE - motion will slow as it rembeds itself in between the NE and SW coverging bands.  Then it will move with the front that stretches from Central America out near Bermuda.
If it doesn't self destruct (from multiple centers), Debby will be a serious storm by tomorrow afternoon.  
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Quoting Tazmanian:




some of you may be get this am uesing good chrome 20 wish this came out and evere time i re lode the page for new commets this come up


This webpage is not available
The webpage at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2136 might be temporarily down or it may have moved permanently to a new web address.
Error 330 (net::ERR_CONTENT_DECODING_FAILED): Unknown error.


Mate, do you have Norton 360 on your pc/laptop? A friend of mine had that and it was blocking there chrome and IE but not firefox. I had to uninstall Norton 360 and straight away the net was back on chrome and IE.

Tropical Depression #Debby advisory 15 issued. Center of #Debby turns southeastward Link
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New in-depth analysis on Debby and Atlantic tropics on my blog.

I also discuss the potential for both Atlantic tropical waves to develop....
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BOC has something brewing! and check out the E. Pac
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Hi.
Is it uhh... possible for Debby to relocate her center to where there is a lot of convection? If so, would she begin to strengthen?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sad situation going on in Colorado tonight some peoples houses are up in flames.


Unreal situation here tonight. I feel like we are going to wake up in the morning to before the Waldo Canyon Fire and after it here in Colorado. Still going very strong tonight in an area with many many homes. All this only a week or two after the High Park Fire, the most destructive in Colorado history at 248 homes.

Still a good live stream going. Link
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783. emguy
My word of caution would be...Something is getting left behind....
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782. emguy
Quoting AllStar17:
In looking at the models, if Debby survives the crossing, which she may not, the storm may threaten Newfoundland. Additionally, to me it is unbelievable that there is yet another area of interest that has flared up in the CATL. It may not develop, but it is mighty interesting nonetheless.


Not bad...and a little odd...I'd look for a surprise from Debby, but through a disipation shortly, then maybe something new possible in the SE Gulf at the base of her trough...which might mean more aggrivating rains for Florida with time.
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In looking at the models, if Debby survives the crossing, which she may not, the storm may threaten Newfoundland. Additionally, to me it is unbelievable that there is yet another area of interest that has flared up in the CATL. It may not develop, but it is mighty interesting nonetheless.
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(click to enlarge)
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779. emguy
It looks like the Debby's low pressure center is now shearing out. She does not have much left to go before being absorbed into the overall low pressure trough. Very interesting storm, but the death-kill seems to be on for her now.

Interestingly, there is an overall trough moving south through the state. Nothing to support this...let alone atmospheric conditions are bad...but maybe some little piece of vorticity like what can be seen on the shortwave keeps moving down the west coast of Florida and remains behind in the southern gulf later on...No support for redevolopment now...but not to be ruled out...interesting.
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That answers the ? of a second landfall.

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...CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
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Not sure if there was one earlier since I wasn't around, but yellow circle in Central Atlantic:


10% chance.
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Debby making one final stand on the bay area, power went out for a sec. in the street.

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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.

How is this? From NWS Tallahassee:



This is how much rain fell since Sunday June 24, associated with Tropical Storm Debby. The colored image is the ESTIMATED storm total, based on data from the NWS radar located at the Tallahassee Regional Airport. Some of these values are probably over- estimated by a few inches, and this data gets progressively less reliable at longer distances from the radar. We have also plotted several MEASURED rainfall amounts for comparison. The highest value we know of is a whopping 28.78" near Curtis Mill (in Wakulla County, FL). The observer has a 7" gage, and had to dump it four times to accommodate all the water! This amount is roughly half the average rainfall amount in a year.
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RIP Debbie - I don't think anything else there other than a late season front pushing down.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, the BAMM has almost the entire time, but I've been told it's not reliable.
,uses the beta effect at different strengths,i believe that spread with td debby would indicate disippation as it should show northerly componiant when used on a healthy TC....que the grapic PT!
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I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.
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SSD just added a 1000mb low off cedar keys in the Gulf. Seems the fun isn't over yet, technically speaking.

SSDLink
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Sad situation going on in Colorado tonight some peoples houses are up in flames.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there could become a T.C.F.A. on the eastern side of fla near shore southwest tropical atlantic
I agree completely - Debbie jumps the shark here that stron convection and eye clearing thing wil drop to the SE until the tropical arm gets attached fat and happy.
Then the fun begins - damn near instant major
After it cuts off the original primary circulation (as in now) it could well proceed to swallow it... And grow bigger
At least it will be offshore for now.
Debby is so building a fat and happy Atlantic center
That will become a hurricane as soon as it finishes pinching off the dry air -
This is a strategic retreat that will leave Debby impressive... finally ppl may get her size
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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with that. Unfortunately the past two days were very busy for me and after Debby stalled near the panhandle I figured there would be lots of time to check back in :-)

Typically though a system near 8 N takes a long time to spin up as the Coriolis effect works best closer to 10 N and higher, particularly early in the season.

This image shows a nice circular vorticity signature.

The Coriolis effect is nothing compared to the butterfly effect.
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765. 7544
stii going south hmm lets see how far south she can take this feeder band in the middle any guesses ?

Link
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No - looks like it goes out to see and center does not pass over land again.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
So would this qualify as two landfalls?


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So would this qualify as two landfalls?

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there could become a T.C.F.A. on the eastern side of fla near shore southwest tropical atlantic
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The reason why Debby has failed to allow new areas of deep convection to develop is that dry air aloft with shear prevents tall convective development. If you examine overall atmosphere moisture there is such massive amount of it still with Debby in the lower levels so if shear were to die down it would easily punch through the drier air aloft and work out pretty quick given large amount low level moisture, however this won't happen because the center is obviously being kept shallow. Most of those showers you see near the center of Debby are convective they are just so incredibly shallow.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Been away all night so excuse my ignorance but, is Debby heading SSE along the west coast?



Been watching and yes indeedy.
Actually Debbie is busting a move to the SE - trying to get her groove hat back on by nestling in the arms of the southern convergence from the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan (been flowing in for days).  The center is still overrun with dry air but it looks better than it ever has: solid coverage at the lower levels
More surprises coming IMHO - big ones
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The tropical wave at 35-40W & 7-12N is holding its own as far as the dry air is concerned. It is creating its own moisture field as it heads westward. It really should have no serious impediments for it to develop slowly down the road. I think the GFS has it developing in the short term. It is an interesting feature to watch, and amazing that as soon as Debby is making her exit, another player steps up. 2012? hmmmm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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