Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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heat index of 97 degrees @ 9 a.m. mississippi coast
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Quoting jeffs713:

93F as "hot". That's funny.

93F would be a wonderful cool down here. :)


Quoting washingtonian115:
Not if you factor in humidity...


When you factor in the humidity, the "feels like" temp would be 100 or greater. That's not "wonderfully cool" anywhere in the world.
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No storms until probably August.Man this season is a bust.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Debby is about to sit on top of the Warm Gulf Stream water.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
904. A4Guy
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The Marsupial theory that was developed for AEWs not too long ago.

Very interesting read for those who have more than a decent understanding of tropical weather.




Hypothesis 1:Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a favored region for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings and TC formation;

Hypothesis 2:The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected from dry air intrusion;

Hypothesis 3:The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave


Thank you for taking the time to explain...but I admit, it's a bit over my head! :)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah.Like the 1723 hurricane that killed over 23,000 people.It originated from there.
winds.that.can.peel.the.skin.off
Quoting Progster:


La Nina dissipated in May so its currently an El Nono, or a La Nada (the official term is Enso-neutral). According to CPC (Climate Prediction Center) its a coin toss whether or not El Nino will form later in the summer. The climate-model's ensemble mean suggests El Nino, if it develops, will be in place by September, suggesting its particular type of effect on weather won't really arrive until after the summer.

Having said this, the Nino 1-3 regions are already indicating sea surface temperatures in the El Nino range, and if the trend is your friend, I suspect we may see "official" El nino conditions a little sooner than forecast. Either way, the summer forecast is hot for nearly all of the lower 48 except for the Pacific NW where, offshore, a large pool of ocean from Alaska to mid California with below average temperatures is expected to persist.
still.be.storms.instead.of.3.fish.it.will.be.one. landfaller
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


to me, the superstorms are CVs, the supersuper storms start closer to home, not in the gulf, but in the caribbean or w of florida.
Like Ivan was a CV- as superstorm
But Katrina was a semi homestarted storm and was a superstorm
The CV storms cycle out of their strongest phases before land, especially in the caribbean sea, while the closer to home storms peak in the gulf or around there

Katrina originated from the left overs of a tropical depression in the CATL though I believe it was TD 12 or so and then it weekend before well you know the rest
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
901. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
5:00 PM PhST June 27 2012
==============================================

Tropical Storm "DINDO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to extreme northern Luzon.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 15.9°N 126.7°E or 430 km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Islands
3. Babuyan Group of Islands
4. Isabela
5. Batanes Group of Islands
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt.Province

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Abra
3. Ilocos Sur
4. Aurora
5. Ifugao
6. Nueva Viscaya
7. Quirino
8. Benguet

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Dindo" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section which may trigger land slides and flashfloods.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of central and southern Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "DINDO" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
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Quoting A4Guy:


The Marsupial theory that was developed for AEWs not too long ago.

Very interesting read for those who have more than a decent understanding of tropical weather.




Hypothesis 1:Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a favored region for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings and TC formation;

Hypothesis 2:The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected from dry air intrusion;

Hypothesis 3:The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave
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Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Trying to get some work done, but it's interesting that RAMMB already has a floater for the CATL wave.

Might become an invest later today...thats a big might.
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897. A4Guy
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
About as classic of a pouch system as it gets...

I wish that NRL and UWISC maintained the PGI tracking sites.

We'll have to see if this can avoid being sheared and SAL-blasted to death over the next 96 hours.

This would make for a very interesting cyclone if this were August...



What's a "pouch system??"
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Quoting pcola57:


Gotta be honest with ya..
The storms from the ITCZ give me the creeps..
During my lifetime it seems the most powerful storms originate there..
Yeah.Like the 1723 hurricane that killed over 23,000 people.It originated from there.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
what should I look at to see the steering currents? which products?
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CATL wave showing some signs of organisation. there are also signs od banding. the dry air ahead of the system is being eroded by the big moisture field. quite interesting set up. reminds me of Emily in 2005. the wave will get more organise when it gets closer to 50 deg long, where the sst is warmer. could be our next invest before the day is done.
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893. 7544
hmm is debby still over fla or off the coast looks like new feeder bands forming over ssouth fla from the tail looks like se fl turns for whats left over of debby winds picking up also tia
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you certain about that?
I'm sure you already know. With mother nature, expect the unexpected, lol. But I hear ya' though, conditions aren't all that favorable for this little wave to develop.
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Quoting pcola57:


Gotta be honest with ya..
The storms from the ITCZ give me the creeps..
During my lifetime it seems the most powerful storms originate there..


to me, the superstorms are CVs, the supersuper storms start closer to home, not in the gulf, but in the caribbean or w of florida.
Like Ivan was a CV- as superstorm
But Katrina was a semi homestarted storm and was a superstorm
The CV storms cycle out of their strongest phases before land, especially in the caribbean sea, while the closer to home storms peak in the gulf or around there
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Good Morning Everyone..

the wave in the East Atlantic has some vorticity..in the bottom view of the screen shot
850mb

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not enough to make it
and it is slowing down
and, even more, no models even develop it, all kill it.
We are just overreacting to the first wave of the year and far out yellow circle


I just posted this on my WEbSite:

NHC is monitoring an area in the Central Atlantic. They are giving it a 10% chance of development in the next 48hrs. Models are currently not forecasting this to develop. It does have a good Vorticity at 850mb, under only 10kts of shear and has some Divergence and some Convergence in the lower levels. Needs monitored for sure. Looking at steering it should move to the WNW over the next 48rs.
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Quoting weatherb0y:
You say that with FAR too much certainty, lol.


you certain about that?
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Rain coming for me now and 3 tree down for me from Debby
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The South American Wave train should spawn another EPac TC soon:
Another consistent 300hr GFS storm, we might see it within a month:
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not enough to make it
and it is slowing down
and, even more, no models even develop it, all kill it.
We are just overreacting to the first wave of the year and far out yellow circle
You say that with FAR too much certainty, lol.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Nice wave in central Africa.

Georgiastormz it still has some spin to it though.


Gotta be honest with ya..
The storms from the ITCZ give me the creeps..
During my lifetime it seems the most powerful storms originate there..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Nice wave in central Africa.

Georgiastormz it still has some spin to it though.


not enough to make it
and it is slowing down
and, even more, no models even develop it, all kill it.
We are just overreacting to the first wave of the year and far out yellow circle
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Quoting pcola57:



In the bottom picture, isn't that the remains of Chris near Europe? lol I posted a picture of ET Chris a few days ago.
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Quoting pcola57:


Nice wave in central Africa.

Georgiastormz it still has some spin to it though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting Autistic2:


Yes, Our house is ontop of a small hill. That is the reason we byilt our housr here. My house is high and dry, MANY people in my small neibher hood in the wood are not so blessed. Benn 20 years since I saw rain like that.


Glad you're okay and I feel very lucky, too not to be flooding with so much around me.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Sad slide show out of Colorado Springs:

just devastating.. and a ways to go yet
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Not looking too bad.

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Wow, thought debby would still be in FL
And is the colorado springs fire currently still burning the city up?
or is it stopped?

And the NHC doesnt seem so sure about the wave, they added the phrase "if at all" to the amount of development expected.
Wave isnt rotating too quickly anymore anyway.
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Quoting Progster:


La Nina dissipated in May so its currently an El Nono, or a La Nada (the official term is Enso-neutral). According to CPC (Climate Prediction Center) its a coin toss whether or not El Nino will form later in the summer. The climate-model's ensemble mean suggests El Nino, if it develops, will be in place by September, suggesting its particular type of effect on weather won't really arrive until after the summer.

Having said this, the Nino 1-3 regions are already indicating sea surface temperatures in the El Nino range, and if the trend is your friend, I suspect we may see "official" El nino conditions a little sooner than forecast. Either way, the summer forecast is hot for nearly all of the lower 48 except for the Pacific NW where, offshore, a large pool of ocean from Alaska to mid California with below average temperatures is expected to persist.
Thank you. That's what I like most about this blog. Seems there's always someone who knows more about something, and can enhance, clarify and provide further insight. It is appreciated.
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Did a part of Debby decouple and head to Texas? I was seeing some moisture traveling west in WV loop of the last 24hrs... perhaps some of the models were half right ;)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
About as classic of a pouch system as it gets...

I wish that NRL and UWISC maintained the PGI tracking sites.

We'll have to see if this can avoid being sheared and SAL-blasted to death over the next 96 hours.

This would make for a very interesting cyclone if this were August...



Yeah,what happened with that site that has not updated since 2011? It looks like they will not do the pouches anymore.
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to me, those waves/storms near africa look worse than they did earlier..
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Quoting LightningCharmer:


Manitou Springs had some relief a couple days ago but then the winds changed, and Colorado Springs was affected.

If I'm reading the analysis correctly, La Nina predicts higher that average temperature for Colorado in late spring and early summer. If I have this wrong, please advise otherwise. Hopefully with the predicted transition to El Nino, there will be some relief for Colorado in the months to come.



La Nina dissipated in May so its currently an El Nono, or a La Nada (the official term is Enso-neutral). According to CPC (Climate Prediction Center) its a coin toss whether or not El Nino will form later in the summer. The climate-model's ensemble mean suggests El Nino, if it develops, will be in place by September, suggesting its particular type of effect on weather won't really arrive until after the summer.

Having said this, the Nino 1-3 regions are already indicating sea surface temperatures in the El Nino range, and if the trend is your friend, I suspect we may see "official" El nino conditions a little sooner than forecast. Either way, the summer forecast is hot for nearly all of the lower 48 except for the Pacific NW where, offshore, a large pool of ocean from Alaska to mid California with below average temperatures is expected to persist.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Not if you factor in humidity...
That WAS factored in.
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Good morning all.
The Sun is finally shining in the Keys and hopefully most of Florida. I dread the forcast for this weekend because my lawn needs cutting. My heart and prayers go out to all the people affected by the flooding AND the wildfires. It is a devastating life-changing event when you lose your home. It has happened to me! It will be a point in time that will be forever rememebered as before vs after.

Take care everyone. Remember that everything can be replaced but your life. Count your blessings, even if it is only on one hand.
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We broke a record in NOLA yesterday, 102F

OOofh.
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Wow... a slight chance near the coast of Africa:
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Quoting jeffs713:

93F as "hot". That's funny.

93F would be a wonderful cool down here. :)
Not if you factor in humidity...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

93F as "hot". That's funny.

93F would be a wonderful cool down here. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't embed this video of the Colorado Springs fire, but it's definitely worth a look.


Here is another News live stream KKTV
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Heartbreaking.


Wow, we had a small fire one time. Just a small part of the kit and smoke everywhere.

Those people are loosing everthing. kind of puts a little (ok a H___ of alot) of rain in perspective for us here in NE FL
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
About as classic of a pouch system as it gets...

I wish that NRL and UWISC maintained the PGI tracking sites.

We'll have to see if this can avoid being sheared and SAL-blasted to death over the next 96 hours.

This would make for a very interesting cyclone if this were August...

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misty.here.e.cen.fl
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