Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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Quoting LargoFl:
yes, hope he doesnt lose power,but when it crosses over the state..whew boy, we all are going to feel this,right across the state


youve had this puppy for like four days hahaa
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Ft. Myers International Airport
54mph gust - highest wind speed so far today.
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Quoting weatherh98:


and hey hes getting what he wanted, a sttorm near his house. hope hes doing well with his little girl
yes, hope he doesnt lose power,but when it crosses over the state..whew boy, we all are going to feel this,right across the state
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Pin point the center with the velocity loop.


its heading west :P JKJKJK
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting LargoFl:
me too, he hit this right on the head days and days ago


and hey hes getting what he wanted, a sttorm near his house. hope hes doing well with his little girl
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Pin point the center with the velocity loop.
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Quoting gator23:

Wait what? you have running water and AC?


....para, para, paradise...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting scottsvb:


Levi concentrates to much on the medium range models..and their accuracy is pretty low (under 25% correct). Days 4,5,6 are kinda far out unless both the GFS and the EURO agree. Levi is a good kid, he's learning and know's how to post up good videos. I like watching his videos. Sometimes he's correct and sometimes he's wrong. I'm wrong at times also. I see where he said it will go to Texas.. then changed to Lousiana..but he just used the wrong models to try to show why. Only good model that went that way for a couple runs was the Euro but it's initiation was off and it started it moving to 90W and it wasn't happening. Only chance Debbie had to move towards TX..( and it wouldn't of been there.. would of went to Lousiana) if it got past 88W and it only went to 86.8.
No one is perfect


Fair point. Not knocking him but he did gloat a little bit.
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Quoting weatherh98:
i think we owe stormtracker2k an apology.


Sorry for being wrong floridians:)
me too, he hit this right on the head days and days ago
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
Quoting emcf30:
For those of you in the New Port Richy area.Mandatory evacuations in New Port Richey. Officials have released a map of the area.



geez getting bad up there huh..good luck folks up there, listen to your orders and stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
For those of you in the New Port Richy area.Mandatory evacuations in New Port Richey. Officials have released a map of the area.



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i think we owe stormtracker2k an apology.


Sorry for being wrong floridians:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting gator23:
Not to put him down, im not, but Levi did gloat when it was going west. he kept posting "more models shifting west" yet when they shifted east not a peep.


Levi concentrates to much on the medium range models..and their accuracy is pretty low (under 25% correct). Days 4,5,6 are kinda far out unless both the GFS and the EURO agree. Levi is a good kid, he's learning and know's how to post up good videos. I like watching his videos. Sometimes he's correct and sometimes he's wrong. I'm wrong at times also. I see where he said it will go to Texas.. then changed to Lousiana..but he just used the wrong models to try to show why. Only good model that went that way for a couple runs was the Euro but it's initiation was off and it started it moving to 90W and it wasn't happening. Only chance Debbie had to move towards TX..( and it wouldn't of been there.. would of went to Lousiana) if it got past 88W and it only went to 86.8.
No one is perfect
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Quoting SETexas74:


Obviously you've never been to Texas...
Only the extreme west area of the state is classified as desert.
And we do have air conditioning and running water!

Wait what? you have running water and AC?
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Liked the initial GFS outlier, nor did I think this was going to make landfall (although it was probably just a consensus track)in the panhandle. I thought maybe a more east/south east into the FL bend area. Thought she'd be a little better organized, or at least maintain strength. but the dry air has done a number.

Like a few here, still think she can get a little more moisture back which isn't good news when you're soaked.
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382. Tygor
Quoting SETexas74:


Obviously you've never been to Texas...
Only the extreme west area of the state is classified as desert.
And we do have air conditioning and running water!


I live in South Central Texas. Yes, it hasn't rained (more than a trace) in 6-7 weeks. Everything around is brown and dead/dying from the last two years. I realize it isn't really the desert, but sometimes it hard to distinguish the differences :)
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381. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
A whole page of yakking but not one Image.

Lordy, even the TV Met is cranky.


might be time to add some everclear to your fresca....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
000
WTNT44 KNHC 261452
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY
AGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER
BY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT
WELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS
WEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND
MAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A
DROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE
WINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION
OF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT
TOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT
BEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND
A NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE
OF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53494
Oh so close
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok easing up now whew what a storm that was
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
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373. Skyepony (Mod)
Checked the model verification on Debbie. AVNO hands down winning.. AEMN (GFS) gets best of the rest.


TropicalAnalystwx~ Sorry about your Mom. My Dad had a stroke soon after Katrina passed south of here. Hospital was filled up with stoke patients at the time. Turns out these lingering Lows & storms seems to cause waves of strokes. People at risk should be eating a little ginger, like ginger candy every day to thin their blood with Debbie lurking around.




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mid atlantic wave

XX/XX/XX
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Quoting LargoFl:


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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
up and out now on the move e
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53494
..............................looks like they were right with a new 4-8 more inches of rain today as she makes rainfall,its pouring outside hard!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


About to make landfall and the center shrunk.


Yes I saw that. firing convection on the back side. Could be a rough night?
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looks like debs headed for landfall over next 3-4 hrs as she's moving NE at about 5-7kts now or??
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


T.A. My thoughts and prayers are with you my friend. Hope everyone is alright. Please keep us updated.

Jeff
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362. wxmod
Smog (common in this area!), lower left, and fast melting portion of Greenland, upper right. MODIS satellite photo.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1137 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT TRILBY...CROOM...HOLDER AND DUNNELLON...
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...
THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...
THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER AT MORRIS BRIDGE AND ZEPHYRHILLS...
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD AND RYE BRIDGE...
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...
THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW AND ZOLFO SPRINGS.

HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY BROUGHT MOST OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS
THROUGH OUT THE REGION INTO A FLOOD STATUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
360. 7544
wpb had a wind gust of 36 mph and still blowing hmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
Quoting pcola57:
Click on Layers and then sattilte,then adjust opacity at the control at the bottom where looping is


About to make landfall and the center shrunk.
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Debby Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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..............................real bad line of storms hitting me now..watch out tampa..this one the way the hard winds are blowing might throw off tornado's and its Pouring rain, my roof gutters are flowing like an open full blast fire hydrant..whew boy...real bad storm line..debby is NOT finished yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37912
DJ, Dewey, I know you're out there...somewhere. So, STAY SAFE! And by that I mean...well, you know.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


Sending thoughts and prayers your way!

BTW... how close to the SE coast are we expecting Debby to pass? I know that the OBX is in the cone.
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Poor Debby, she's looking a mess. She did just throw a quick squall at us all the way over here in Panama City though. I was on my way to clean the mess out of my pool and all of a sudden the clouds came back in and the wind started gusting hard again. She's not quitter.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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