Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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No one should be bashed for being wrong on this one. NHC was wrong too, someone posted earlier that Debby wasn't really hard to predict; I about fell out of my seat lol. Debby could have done so many different things, this is just how it all played out. Should give credit where it's due here, but to bash anyone would seem inappropriate since the system was unpredictable by nature. Levi is a polarizing forecaster here, lots hang on his every word, and lots like to let him know if his every word doesn't come to fruition. It's good to be king of the hill, but someone is always looking to push you off and take your place.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


over 105 in some areas right on the Gulf...that does not happen that often, if ever...its crazy..that has to be some humid sticky air! certainly making coastal waters warm, which are already way warmer than average...if a system does develop in the western gulf without all this shear Bullsh*t its going to be a monster!


Becoming deadly
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Quoting txjac:


Levi's tops in my book! I just cant wait for him to be my son-in-law! I have a daughter at home that I want him for! lol
well now.. you don't know someone due to them blogging online. that is all i have to say about everything ever having to do with the internet and society.
so what's up Debby.. time to move on yet??
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Deleted
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Ok. Don't laugh. Is there any possibility of Debby tapping energy from all the water that fell on land prior to this and strengthen a bit as it passes over Florida? It's probably an unlikely occurrence, but I am curious.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Crenshaw Rd, Pasadena, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 122 °F
You need all your vegetation to die like her in South Central Texas and have your ground dry up that way your Heat Index wont be so bad this Summer, one advantage my area has over yours. LOL, 106 here currently in the shade, humidity 36 percent. Advantages of no rain in 42 days is lesser humidity but higher temps here. They said if it gets to 110 a stray storm could develop between here and the coast. You have to laugh at this weather to keep from losing your sanity, it was tough fishing out in this yesterday.
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2:00PM ADVISORY
(click to enlarge)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6634
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


definitely.
never seen you forecast anything seriously:)

come to weather chat.


could if i really tried. i nailed Irene last year before it hit puerto rico
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Tree ring analysis going back 300 years or more in the western/western-central US indicates that the past 100-150 years was unusually mild and wet by historical standards.

It appears that a significant number of towns, cities and locales were all built in the wrong place. Recorded history, unfortunately, doesn't go back far enough to be statistically significant.

What those areas are seeing now is historically "normal" if the tree ring data is being correctly interpreted.
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490. Tygor
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Did you get a front come thru? 106 here with no wind, LOL


Yeah 107 here with no wind. Thankfully there's almost no humidity otherwise I'm pretty sure the pits of hell would be showing themselves.
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489. txjac
I'm sitting here with 104 ..hot, hot, hot ....cant wait to see my electric bill!
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Quoting jeffs713:
441. How about posting an image link that goes somewhere other than a site dedicated to art, which could be easily photoshopped... Maybe link an image from the original site, such as the NOAA or another organization that has direct access to the images (not rehosted images).


That's called "hotlinking" and is considered bad behavior on the Internet, because it amounts to stealing another site's bandwidth for your own purposes.

Like using the original site as an image host for your content instead.
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487. yoboi
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Did you get a front come thru? 106 here with no wind, LOL


it got to 103 here yesterday it was hott suppose to be 106 here thur and fri never seen heat this early in summer
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:
debby is for sure making its first land fall about 40 miles north of cedar key! hopefully it hurrys across florida and then stops over the gulf stream!




thar she goes.
this faster track means the trough will help pull debby, rather than her getting stuck with the high off the east coast and then going up the coast.
The NE is safe
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451




Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6634
Been a while since I checked in. Just my observation, but it appears as if Debby has started a move to the ENE/NE based on satellite imagery. And she is hanging tough with numerous low-topped bands rotating around the center. Thinking perhaps landfall around Horseshoe Beach, FL (between Keaton Beach and Cedar Key).
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Looks like Debby is drifting NE of the forcasted track, and perhaps tightening up the elongated CoC.  Doubt it will affect any organization before landfall with all that dry air, but a tighter core may allow faster restrengthening when she reemerges in the Atlantic.

Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flas h-rgb-long.html
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Quoting yoboi:
in louisiana right now it's 99 with wind gusting at 1 mph
Did you get a front come thru? 106 here with no wind, LOL
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Quoting txjac:


Levi's tops in my book! I just cant wait for him to be my son-in-law! I have a daughter at home that I want him for! lol


wow
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
debby is for sure making its first land fall about 40 miles north of cedar key! hopefully it hurrys across florida and then stops over the gulf stream!
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Quoting weatherh98:


put me in there for, humor, off topicness, and all together idiocy. kk?


definitely.
never seen you forecast anything seriously:)

come to weather chat.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
478. txjac
Quoting Minnemike:
is infamy the goal here? i think it's great that a member of this blog, young and respected, continually offers sound, coherent, and respectful information/dialogue. but superstars?.. the competition for infamy will do little for anyone here.. Levi possesses such qualities due to sheer interest level and hours spent researching. those tools are out there for all of us.. though the time may not be.
such characterizations reveal a culture i don't associate with here.. i love it when everyone offers information, ideas, and support!! respectfully doing so makes all the difference between a blogger like Levi, and those who focus on ego.
(edit: not a commentary on Rookie, btw.. just bouncing off that text)


Levi's tops in my book! I just cant wait for him to be my son-in-law! I have a daughter at home that I want him for! lol
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12z Euro running
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13425
Quoting yoboi:


i agree thanks for taking time out your day and teaching us our daily pysch speach...


Thanks for taking time out of your day to be a sarcastic prick. And if I hadn't just posted a paragraph about how ridiculous it is to criticize other posters, I would point our that your spelling could use a little work. But its a blog, and you are likely just another person with "little man syndrome", so I'll get over it, leave the blog since it is in full-blown troll mode today, and go back to enjoying the great weather here in central NC.

79, sunny, low humidity. Lovin it.

Prayers for TA and your family.
Prayers for any Floridians in harms way.
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Quoting Articuno:

He is in my top list for best wunderbloggers. ever.


put me in there for, humor, off topicness, and all together idiocy. kk?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Crenshaw Rd, Pasadena, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 122 °F
Imagine working in one of the many chemical plants and refineries located there. Wearing FRC's (fire retardant clothing) and being around steam, incinerators, boilers, reactors, etc.

A co-worker of mine said is thermometer read 86 degrees at 7:00 am (CST) yesterday morning.
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473. yoboi
Quoting RitaEvac:


Crenshaw Rd, Pasadena, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 122 °F


wow really heat index of 122?????
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You people on the blog are nuts.Some of ya'll showing your true colors...I'm off.Cuz I already see where this is going...Bans.Some of these teenage boys are letting puberty go to they're heads.Bye.


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

where else would puberty go...
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Quoting Articuno:

its more like the top respected list


why would you respect me?
i havent done anything yet.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
470. wxmod
Quoting jeffs713:
441. How about posting an image link that goes somewhere other than a site dedicated to art, which could be easily photoshopped... Maybe link an image from the original site, such as the NOAA or another organization that has direct access to the images (not rehosted images).


All satellite images WXMOD posts come from NASA:

http://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/nrt-data/hazards-a nd-disasters



They are easily verifiable at this site. I have posted this link many times before. The Greenland photos are located at about 50.00,69.00
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Quoting yoboi:
in louisiana right now it's 99 with wind gusting at 1 mph


over 105 in some areas right on the Gulf...that does not happen that often, if ever...its crazy..that has to be some humid sticky air! certainly making coastal waters warm, which are already way warmer than average...if a system does develop in the western gulf without all this shear Bullsh*t its going to be a monster!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont be funny
there is a reason i have the picture i do

i only started following weather in 05, started listening to noaa weather radio and learning about cape etc in 07, and seriously learning in 08.
got a long way to go.
i dont even like to make forecasts yet

its more like the top respected list
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Quoting ITCZ:
So um. Wasn't there talk of another tropical wave or something?.


oh yes, it was all talk. the wave definitely has no action :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
466. yoboi
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Wow, what the hell is going on in the blog today? Bashing levi? People bashing those defending levi? Cmon now....

If you must bash someone, bash the professionals who are paid to forecast and warn people but were wrong. In reality, even that is pointless right now... it is what it is, a dangerous flooding situation and people should be focused on that. Not who predicted what 3 days ago.

As for Levi.... if I am not mistaken, he is a student, a very intelligent one, learning meteorology, and is nice enough to provide details and videos for those of us who are amateurs but enjoy learning about weather ourselves. He made a prediction... he was wrong. GET OVER IT. Even if you truly think you could do better... it is ridiculous to go around criticizing people who aren't professionals. He is not the one average people in Florida look to for their forecasts. He is posting these things on a blog....

Criticizing other posters on a free blog for being wrong is just ridiculous IMO. None of us are professionals, we are all interested in weather, many just trying to learn. Levi is one of the best on the blog at teaching us... lets just move on and focus on whats happening rather than who was right, who was wrong, or which model did or did not predict this correctly.

Some of you on this blog have serious "little man syndrome".... talking a big game over the internet, likely because of your own insecurities. Get a life


i agree thanks for taking time out your day and teaching us our daily pysch speach...
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


...Well, for what it is worth, these are my thoughts on all of this.
is infamy the goal here? i think it's great that a member of this blog, young and respected, continually offers sound, coherent, and respectful information/dialogue. but superstars?.. the competition for infamy will do little for anyone here.. Levi possesses such qualities due to sheer interest level and hours spent researching. those tools are out there for all of us.. though the time may not be.
such characterizations reveal a culture i don't associate with here.. i love it when everyone offers information, ideas, and support!! respectfully doing so makes all the difference between a blogger like Levi, and those who focus on ego.
(edit: not a commentary on Rookie, btw.. just bouncing off that text)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks all for the prayers. I just talked to her and she didn't sound too good. I just wish thy could find out WHAT is causing these strokes.




plural, wait more than one!!!
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Quoting yoboi:
sounds like you are keeping score....if you are, put me down as blowing the forcast with debby i had it going a little further west like impacting oregon...i blew it big time...
Well thank goodness somebody is keeping score, otherwise this would be a very bad sports blog
...no, wait, what I meant is that this is a very fine weather community, except for the personality cults and conflicts. Sorry for the meta.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont be funny
there is a reason i have the picture i do

pfft,
you know more then me
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Quoting yoboi:
in louisiana right now it's 99 with wind gusting at 1 mph


Crenshaw Rd, Pasadena, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 122 °F
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460. ITCZ
So um. Wasn't there talk of another tropical wave or something?

{not to change the subject}


{Oh OK exactly to change the subject}


PS I love diversity, and differing opinions respectfully offered.

'nuff said.
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*Wakulla*

:)
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Quoting Articuno:

Nah your up top somewhere


dont be funny
there is a reason i have the picture i do

i only started following weather in 05, started listening to noaa weather radio and learning about cape etc in 07, and seriously learning in 08.
got a long way to go.
i dont even like to make forecasts yet
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
Before anyone bashes anyone else about a forecast.. A little reminder of the meaning. So get over it. ;)

1.
to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance: to forecast a heavy snowfall; to forecast lower interest rates.
2.
to serve as a prediction of; foreshadow.

- verb
4.
to conjecture beforehand; make a prediction.

- noun
6.
a prediction, especially as to the weather.
7.
a conjecture as to something in the future.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


who is in your bottom list of best wunderbloggers ever?
hint hint *points to self*

Nah your up top somewhere
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Wow, what the hell is going on in the blog today? Bashing levi? People bashing those defending levi? Cmon now....

If you must bash someone, bash the professionals who are paid to forecast and warn people but were wrong. In reality, even that is pointless right now... it is what it is, a dangerous flooding situation and people should be focused on that. Not who predicted what 3 days ago.

As for Levi.... if I am not mistaken, he is a student, a very intelligent one, learning meteorology, and is nice enough to provide details and videos for those of us who are amateurs but enjoy learning about weather ourselves. He made a prediction... he was wrong. GET OVER IT. Even if you truly think you could do better... it is ridiculous to go around criticizing people who aren't professionals. He is not the one average people in Florida look to for their forecasts. He is posting these things on a blog....

Criticizing other posters on a free blog for being wrong is just ridiculous IMO. None of us are professionals, we are all interested in weather, many just trying to learn. Levi is one of the best on the blog at teaching us... lets just move on and focus on whats happening rather than who was right, who was wrong, or which model did or did not predict this correctly.

Some of you on this blog have serious "little man syndrome".... talking a big game over the internet, likely because of your own insecurities. Get a life
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454. yoboi
in louisiana right now it's 99 with wind gusting at 1 mph
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Went to Cedar Key yesterday because I live 20 miles away.
30 mph sustained winds
Roads closed
Flooding. The 30-40 ft wide beach is gone
Stinging rain
White capped waves
Plane flipped over
Some damage
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452. yoboi
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe that there are several excellent forecasters on this blog. Levi32 and Drakeon are certainly some of the best with their forecasts. They also put themselves in jeopardy of tasting crow when their forecast may fail them. Levi32 has an excellent chance of becoming a superstar, in his field, as long as does not convince himself that he already is one. At this point in time, I do not see anything that will keep Drakeon from becoming a superstar as well. With either of these excellent forecasters I will listen to what they have to say because they are both very knowledgeable people that have earned that respect from me.

There are other excellent forecasters on here as well and also show great promise towards riding to stardom, if not becoming a superstar in their own right. When those that are willing to stick their necks out with a forecast for us to see then they deserve a hearty, "Great job!" when they get it right and an encouraging, "Do not let this get you down.", when they get it wrong. No one gets it right every time and not even I can get wrong every time. Sooner or later, I am likely to get one correct, should I actually ever try to make a forecast. ;-)

Then we have people like Grothar. He is a highly respected poster on this blog and under respected for his insight on these systems. He is not the only one here that falls into this category.

Well, for what it is worth, these are my thoughts on all of this.


it's best to bash them when they are young that way if the go work for the NHC they will be used to all the bashing by the public makes them stronger and more open.....
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Quoting Articuno:

He is in my top list for best wunderbloggers. ever.


who is in your bottom list of best wunderbloggers ever?
hint hint *points to self*
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


really?
dont include me in that.
My forecast was correct until i gave in to the NHC, sees i should have stuck to my GFS.


I stuck with the GFS the whole time, just didn't post it here; but did manage to have disagreements with people face to face. In the end it does not matter. LOOK at the mess Debby is putting the NW coast of Florida and the panhandle though. Hurry up Debby and get out of there.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 440

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.