Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Deceitful Debby's dreary, drenching days dwindle.

CAUTION: Convection certainly could re-kindle.

So consensus, possible landfall Crystal River? That peeks my interest a lil bit. Hope it stays gentle.

Quoting pcola57:
Got painting to do..
BBL

Oh well..out of paint..
wasn't really motivated anyway..



Tallahasse Climate Charts

Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol

cmon you guys that naked swirl is still moving south imo

Quoting pcola57:


Oh well..out of paint..
wasn't really motivated anyway..

That's a bit of rain even before the storm came through.

Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol

That's why the blog has gone so quiet. lol

Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol

That's because most of the Texans are trying to find water and stay cool. It's pretty desert-like across most of the state.

Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol

DJMedik=Spin Doctor...

Quoting Tygor:


That's a bit of rain even before the storm came through.

Been a wet spring this year...
Not just in Pensacola/or Florida either..
The US in general..

Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link

Quoting 7544:
cmon you guys that naked swirl is still moving south imo

Go Here and speed it up. Looks NE now, for sure not S, imo.

I beginning to hope Debby doesn't become Earth's Red Spot.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less

Tonight

How can the center produce any wind if there are no thunderstorms?

Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link

I can't...Good before and after pics
I tried..sorry
Don't know why though.. :)

Current EPac ACE: 11.8
Current NAtl ACE: 7.28
Current NAtl storm count: 4-1-0
Current EPac storm count: 3-2-1

Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link

Doesn't look like a good place to put a house. Almost like its in a bowl.

Wow, June CV?

Link

Quoting waterskiman:

This was Monday,

Palm Beach Post Capital Bureau

Tallahassee —


Gov. Rick Scott today signed an executive order declaring a statewide state of emergency because of Tropical Storm Debby.

The order directs all state agencies, including the Florida National Guard, to provide any necessary assistance when requested by local governments.

“Because of the broad impact of Tropical Storm Debby, virtually every county in Florida could be affected. Some communities are already grappling with flooding, wind damage and electrical outages,” Scott said. “This executive order allows the State Emergency Response Team to quickly and effectively coordinate the response and ensure needed resources are available.”

The only thing we are waiting on now is for the POTUS to declare a disaster. I work for local government in Northeast Florida and we are tracking our damage in the county. Anyone who sustains damage from the storm should call their local Emergency Management Office to report the damage so it can be added to the tally for reporting to the state, which will determine if a disaster is declared.

Oooo it worked for me! I deleted the s from https.

Quoting Seastep:


Doesn't look like a good place to put a house. Almost like its in a bowl.

OK Seastep..how did you get those pics to post?

Lets hope Debby dosent intensify-from the HPC discussion

THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS RECORD
HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST...WITH
MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IF
DEBBY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY.

Quoting gator23:


Tonight

I think It will make landfall either tonight ir tomorrow morning and then it will speed up a little bit as it crosses Florida and it'll then exit into the Atlantic around Thursday maybe...... Who knows how strong itll get over the Atlantic

Quoting pcola57:


OK Seastep..how did you get those pics to post?

Take out the s in https://

I also took out the :large at the end, too.

You know, if the models could speak I cant help but laugh when I picture the GFS casually sitting back shaking its head saying "I told ya so".

What a crazy storm this has been!

Quoting windshear1993:
Wonder when will we see Ernesto

after debby

Right now, ADT isn't helpful, but here it is:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2012 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 28:54:04 N Lon : 84:14:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 995.9mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : 12.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.2 degrees

************************************************* ***

Debby is done for as a major weather maker over Florida. No way convection fires again strongly for Debby like yesterday over the panhandle. I thought our big read blob yesterday would stay connected to Debby overnight, but since that has gone east Debby's going to struggle to fire much than a few moderate squalls over central Florida. With all Debby's energy ejecting NE it will interesting to see if she anything but a swirl when she gets out of Florida eventually. Would be nice if convection does occur that it would be right over the center of circulation. Keep it interesting.

Quoting Seastep:


Take out the s in https://

I also took out the :large at the end, too.

Ok thanks smarty pants(please don't be offended) :)

I learn something every day!!

Remember Fl. for the most part is flat very hard to get a river 13 feet over flood stage. If that was in S. fl. just about everything south of lake Okeechobee would be Atlantic ocean.

Quoting gator23:

DJMedik=Spin Doctor...

That's what I was called in the Army!

I just read a story on Bay News 9 about a mother manatee and her 2 calves washing up on Bayshore Blvd in Tampa. The 2 calves were hanging on to her body bobbing up and down. She did not survive but the calves are alive. Talk about flooding, wow.

Quoting air360:
You know, if the models could speak I cant help but laugh when I picture the GFS casually sitting back shaking its head saying "I told ya so".

What a crazy storm this has been!

ECMWF is the most reliable model?

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
-GFS

Quoting Doppler22:

I think It will make landfall either tonight ir tomorrow morning and then it will speed up a little bit as it crosses Florida and it'll then exit into the Atlantic around Thursday maybe...... Who knows how strong itll get over the Atlantic

It will be tonight

Quoting ncstorm:
Lets hope Debby dosent intensify-from the HPC discussion

THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS RECORD
HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST...WITH
MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IF
DEBBY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY.

Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.

Quoting jrweatherman:


Rob from Crown Weather called the GFS "garbage". We know what Levi thought of it.

Now that you mention it, I don't see Levi right now... where is he? He's usually on at this time of day.

Birds flying in Tampa look like extras in a Billy Blanks workout video right now.

The GFS was driving drunk according to most here and in the professional field too. GFS was a lonely model that's for sure for a time. No one to blame on Debby, she was just playing with everyone's emotions.

Quoting flbeachgirl:


The only thing we are waiting on now is for the POTUS to declare a disaster. I work for local government in Northeast Florida and we are tracking our damage in the county. Anyone who sustains damage from the storm should call their local Emergency Management Office to report the damage so it can be added to the tally for reporting to the state, which will determine if a disaster is declared.

Thanks I was wondering how that worked for POTUS to 'decide' if we get help or not. Hopefully he won't tell us to pound sand like he did with the gov in Texas after their fires.

Quoting jrweatherman:


Rob from Crown Weather called the GFS "garbage". We know what Levi thought of it.

i.thought.rio.grande.valley

Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.

I think people who dont have AC care..you might try reading the HPC discussions because yesterday they were talking about temperatures reaching around 110 if Debby is stronger..I dont call that sensible and I lived in the SOUTH all my life..

Quoting Tygor:


That's because most of the Texans are trying to find water and stay cool. It's pretty desert-like across most of the state.

Sorry I haven't been posting. Just got back from the oasis on my camel...

Looks like a little band coming in for us. I hope Largo gets his roof taken care of before it gets here.

Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.

Everybody but you obviously.

Hey guys. Had a horrible night.

Quoting icmoore:
I just read a story on Bay News 9 about a mother manatee and her 2 calves washing up on Bayshore Blvd in Tampa. The 2 calves were hanging on to her body bobbing up and down. She did not survive but the calves are alive. Talk about flooding, wow.

I also heard on Fox 13 that a couple of guys tied the dead mother to a pole to keep the calves close to her. It avoided the calves being killed or injured.

For West Palm Beach...