Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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Quoting gordydunnot:
Well looking at the full Atlantic water vapor loop,I think the Doc. may have been only one storm off. The upper level winds from one side of the Atlantic to the other look brutal. I'm sure someone will correct me but it looks like a pretty nasty TUTT setting up again from the Yucatan to Greenland.So trackers in my opinion only enjoy this one while you can. Standing by as usual for Crow.

I stand with you... With the loss of the MJO, it will be tough for anything big to form in July... Maybe one or two Chris like storms, but the odds of any systems of tropical origins like Debby are low I think, at least through July 20.
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Quoting plutorising:
i hope the rest of it isn't under the sand???



Kinda looks that way...
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Well looking at the full Atlantic water vapor loop,I think the Doc. may have been only one storm off. The upper level winds from one side of the Atlantic to the other look brutal. I'm sure someone will correct me but it looks like a pretty nasty TUTT setting up again from the Yucatan to Greenland.So trackers in my opinion only enjoy this one while you can. Standing by as usual for Crow.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I will readily admit that I was wrong about Debby. For days I had forecasted Debby to follow a path to Texas. The shear pushing Debby's convection east stayed too strong for that to happen.
Debby is one of the toughest storms I've had to try to forecast.


Don't sweat it.

Half the arm-chair QBs were wrong, including myself.

The majority of the experts were wrong.

The majority of the computer models were wrong.


NHC botched this forecast the worst I've ever seen them in 10 or 15 years.

The past 10 years they've been almost perfect, but this one was just totally blown.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Blob off S.C is spinning for the reasons Jeff gave. Whole system is still very much connected. The circular blob off S.C is the second rotating wheel of Debby and is connected to and pulling the squall lines east of Florida. Somehow Debbie, the circular blob, and surrounding energy will hook back up to form a formidable storm once Debbie hits Atlantic waters.
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Based on radar imagery out of Tallahassee... looks like landfall is imminent. Likely to occur within the next 30-45 mins tops.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wind: SSW at 30 mph in WPB!!! wow


That is impressive, as I do not think we have quite had sustained 30 mph winds during Debby in Orlando. We have definitely had gusts between 30-40mph in the occasional squalls from Sunday night until now though. The current winds in the Big Bend (near the coc) do not look impressive, 7 mph at Suwannee.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Oh, I know it is an adage just about everywhere. It doesn't apply much here during the summer (we have a "rubber stamp forecast" during the summer). During the winter, however, it is not unheard of to have a high in the low 40s one day, and in the 70s the next.


Yep, I think the bottom line is that weather is darn changeable just about everywhere, though of course it's more changeable in some places than others and that changeability is sometimes seasonal.

The high elevations of Colorado are well known for regular single-day temperature swings in excess of 40 degrees. For instance, the average daily temperature swing last year for Alamosa, Colorado was 34F, with one day boasting a 54F degree swing. Hence another common adage in Colorado... "dress in layers."

:)
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591. yoboi
Quoting charlottefl:
Clearwater Beach:





instead of a red flag flying they have the white flag flying...
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I just want to say thank you to the Weather Underground! My hats off to Dr. Jeff and the entire staff for all they do!!

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I hope she doesn't try to take one more bite out of Florida before she goes. It looks like she is trying to fire more cloud tops over the same areas that have already been hard hit.
Link
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Quoting plutorising:
is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?

Related to the tail end of the front and Debby's circulation.
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11 a.m.

Tampa Police Marine Patrol rescues two baby manatees

The manatee calves washed ashore along flooded Bayshore Boulevard this morning with their mother, who was dead. Officers called Tampa's Lowry Park Zoo and Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission to help with the rescue. The calves will be transported to the zoo.

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i hope the rest of it isn't under the sand???
Quoting charlottefl:
Clearwater Beach:


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Good afternoon everyone.. Looks like our little convectionless swirl Debby is nearing landfall...

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584. Jax82
Debby looks elongated at this hour, and it does appear she will be making it ashore soon. Being in Jax, it looks like all the rain is to the N and E of her, we've already had the rainiest June day on record here yesterday, and more on the way.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
11:00 PM PhST June 26 2012
==============================================

"DINDO" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move west northwest

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 14.4°N 129.7°E or 540 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring occasional rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming frequent rains over the western section. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "DINDO".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.



Here I thought this site was "PG".
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Clearwater Beach:

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581. yoboi
Quoting plutorising:
is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?



a little bit
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Quoting WarEagle8:
buy a portable a/c unit from home depot for $290+ depending on area you want to cool.


I livei n Houston too.
We have 3 window units to supplement our Main unit. One near the laundry room (150$ small). One near in the Master (99$ - very small), and one we keep in the garage and only install it in case of emergency which cools 1000 sqr ft (400$ and as big as you can buy that uses a normal plug/outlet), which we've only had to use once thank goodness, when the fan on the OUTSIDE unit went out in the middle of summer and our repair guy had to special order the part. He couldn't find one in town. We blocked off unnecessary portions of the house, put towels at the bottoms of doors leading to those areas to keep back the heat, and all three units plus all the other steps we took above made the house liveable. Most people here don't have this level of backup however.
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Black Creek in Middleburg which is just south of Orange Park, FL. is experiencing major flooding. They are in a flood warning until Saturday. Flood Stage is 10.6ft. the water right now is over 22ft. Please take a moment to say a prayer for the people affected. Debby is still reeking havoc!
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Quoting gulfscout:
I am not that much knowledgable about tropical meterology but did something extra ordinary happen that debbie followed the GFS model and not the Euro? How could the Euro still go with the western track, even late in the game when all along the GFS saw debby's correct path?


The EURO thought Debby would drift more to the W and high pressure would build in kicking her back to TX. The problem is the EURO never believed the trough over the E atlantic would amplify enough to pick her up and send her out to sea. The EURO basically played catch up and failed miserably. The GFS never let go of it's solution and pretty much nailed the forecast. The GFS was the first model to even sniff out Debby. The EURO just needs a new upgrade and maybe it will be king again.
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577. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
11:00 PM PhST June 26 2012
==============================================

"DINDO" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move west northwest

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 14.4°N 129.7°E or 540 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring occasional rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming frequent rains over the western section. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "DINDO".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
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is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?
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SHe's trying to fire up storms again in the Panhandle. Last few frames of VIZ and WV verify.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I think I've earned the dunce hat in my thoughts on Debby. I think the only thing I was correct about was the actual center consolidation on Friday night or so...everyone needs a little humbling experience every now and then. :-p


The fact that anyone tries to predict nature's unpredictability is quite a feat. Many great meteorologists have failed many, many times. Just because one fails, does not mean that they are horrible forecasters. I wish that some ignorant people on this blog that bash people for their missed predictions would grow up and realize that. I did not catch the earlier statements about Levi... But IMO, he is probably the most insightful minds on this blog. And I guarantee that there was absolutely no reason to bash him. Period. Kudos to those who got this right.
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573. yoboi
what city in fla got the most rain? and how much?
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I think we may see Ernesto near the south east/ northeast coast
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Wind: SSW at 30 mph in WPB!!! wow
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
There was 4 forces of weather in play that affected the steering of Debby. 1)Central Plains Ridge, 2)East Coast Trough, 3) Upper Level Low in the Western Gulf, 4) Subtropical Ridge that extended into the Western Caribbean. Where Debby ended up was on the fringe of these 4 steering mechanisms which is why she stalled. Flow around the Central Plains Ridge is Clockwise, Flow around the Trough is Counter-Clockwise, Flow around the ULL is Counter-Clockwise, and Flow around the Subtropical High was Clockwise. At least that's how I saw it.

Also the GFS model predicted Debby to be a shallow, yet vertically stacked system. The other models predicted a deep and vertically stacked system with good Upper Level Anti-Cyclonic flow to ventilate the system had that happened the system would have taken the westward track. But wind shear increased and stayed fairly strong keeping Debby's convection to the North and East of her COC.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!


or 0.87 cubic kilometers...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AllStar17:
Models continue to indicate that Debby may have some effects on land after it crosses Florida.


yeah for us in Canada im watching her!
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Quoting RTSplayer:
The 2pm BAMM is like Chinese water torture.

Eww... stalling off the other coast, in the middle of the gulf stream, then going ashore again. Thankfully, the BAMM model is pretty simplistic (actually, it is also designed for deeper storms, too). Also, all of the other dynamic models posted here on WU forecast Debby going out to sea permanently.
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Moving NE at six now, Debby should make landfall in the next two hours if not sooner. Looking like, with faster NE movement now, that Debby might be able to make some use of the energy she shed over the last three days that is NE of her now. Are we going to get a little blob of energy to the NE of Debby like yesterday at some point? If not, I think Debby is done until she gets over the Atlantic. Although she is pulling moisture into her center finally and the moisture is moving southwesterly into it, so maybe she does still have a card to play, we shall see.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


It's already over 100 in the garage, add the heat from the hood/engine, becomes unbearable in there, especially when you have a home gym exercise machine to work out to....


I sympathize with you, though Central FL has been pleasantly mild recently due to Debby's continued presence. If it were me, the home gym would be in an air-conditioned space if at all possible.

It looks like TS Debby is moving a bit faster than predicted? I was hoping the rain shield would shift away from the Big Bend area (and other areas that have received too much rain) and more to E. Central FL so my area could get a couple more inches. The last month and a half has brought beneficial rains, but the lakes and the aquifer still need a lot more to catch up.
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We're up to 4.4f above the previous record, and still climbing. Where she stops, nobody knows.


Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MrMixon:


They say that here in Colorado too. I heard it growing up in Cincinnati, Ohio as well. In fact, I did a little research one day and came to the conclusion that the "If you don't like the weather just wait x minutes" adage is common for just about any place with a temperate, continental climate.

As for our weather along the Colorado Front Range, adages notwithstanding, I don't expect much change for at least 10 days out. It is currently 103 F and climbing at Davidson Mesa near Louisville. Humidity is a lousy 11% and winds are gusty and erratic. But hey, at least we have a few clouds around today.


Oh, I know it is an adage just about everywhere. It doesn't apply much here during the summer (we have a "rubber stamp forecast" during the summer). During the winter, however, it is not unheard of to have a high in the low 40s one day, and in the 70s the next.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!
O.M.G. And knowing the hilly country in the panhandle, I wonder how long it will take for the flooded areas to dry? It is kinda sandy, but don't the dips fill up and stay full until evaporation or percolation?
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Quoting StPeteBill:
Is there anything to prevent Debbie from going south once she emerges out over the Atlantic? I would sure hate to see her go south then back across the state.


Hey there St. Pete Bill.... Glad you like the picture I took that you use for your Avatar.
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The 2pm BAMM is like Chinese water torture.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting kwgirl:
That's amazing! Who would have thought? I wonder how they came up with that figure???? Just think, a great amount of that water will be running downstream to Lake O.


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!
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It coming on now!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Models continue to indicate that Debby may have some effects on land after it crosses Florida.
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I think I've earned the dunce hat in my thoughts on Debby. I think the only thing I was correct about was the actual center consolidation on Friday night or so...everyone needs a little humbling experience every now and then. :-p
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Gust of 39MPH today in WPB!!!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
for those who would like to know just how much water is in an inch of rain in gallons for a set surface area this link is interesting. The ammount of water that has fallen in gallons over florida these last few days is unbelievable!

Link
That's amazing! Who would have thought? I wonder how they came up with that figure???? Just think, a great amount of that water will be running downstream to Lake O.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Hummm, Center about to make landfall. Just a tad ahead of schedule ya think?



Yes it's going to make landfall in the next few hours probably.. I suspect the northeast jog will turn more east tonight as it crosses the state
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I am not that much knowledgable about tropical meterology but did something extra ordinary happen that debbie followed the GFS model and not the Euro? How could the Euro still go with the western track, even late in the game when all along the GFS saw debby's correct path?
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Quoting jeffs713:

It is times like this that I wish the Houston adage about our weather was true... "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."


They say that here in Colorado too. I heard it growing up in Cincinnati, Ohio as well. In fact, I did a little research one day and came to the conclusion that the "If you don't like the weather just wait x minutes" adage is common for just about any place with a temperate, continental climate.

As for our weather along the Colorado Front Range, adages notwithstanding, I don't expect much change for at least 10 days out. It is currently 103 F and climbing at Davidson Mesa near Louisville. Humidity is a lousy 11% and winds are gusty and erratic. But hey, at least we have a few clouds around today.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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