Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

Share this Blog
34
+

Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 650 - 600

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Quoting LargoFl:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Debby continues to unleash torrential rainfall across northern Florida and southern Georgia as the storm prepares to make landfall this evening. (The latest reports can be found below.)

Major flooding is occurring across portions of Florida as unrelenting rain continues. One to two feet of rain has already poured down across portions of northern and central Florida. Sanborn, Fla., received 20.10 inches of rain in 24 hours alone.

For a larger version of this map (with times in CDT), please visit the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

Emergency management officials issued a voluntary evacuation notice late Monday evening for residents in low-lying areas of Wakulla County, Fla., due to dangerous flooding.

The Florida Highway patrol closed a portion of I-10, the main interstate highway through northern Florida, early Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, up to another foot of rain will be unleashed across north-central Florida.

The storm has also spawned nearly two dozen tornadoes, which downed power lines, damaged homes and businesses and flipped semi trucks. More damaging winds from thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible as Debby churns in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Central Florida has the greatest risk of severe weather.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Debby was the biggest forecasting headache since Fay...at least. It's absurd that people are bashing others for not nailing where it was going and how strong it would be.

Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.

Hopefully it will be no where as bad as yesterday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Port Richey, Fla., -- Pasco County’s evacuation order has been extended for communities at risk to flooding between the Anclote and Pithlachascotee Rivers (see map attached). The boundaries are as follows:
o The western boundary of the evacuation area is the Anclote River/Thys Rd.
o The eastern boundary of the evacuation is Little Rd.
o The northern boundary is Plathe Rd.
o The southern boundary begins on Perrine Ranch Road and runs east to the intersection of Perrine Ranch Road, turns north on Seven Springs Boulevard, then runs east along Mitchell Ranch Road and continues east on S.R. 54 to the intersection of S.R. 54 and Little Rd.
o The evacuation order also includes other locations ordered evacuated by local authorities due to conditions posing a threat to life, health or safety.

Communities located in the area need to evacuate and emergency responders are arriving by boat and vehicles to assist residents.

Residents who can evacuate independently are encouraged to take their disaster kit in their vehicle and drive to friends, family or hotels out of the flooded area. Anyone needing shelter can go to:

o Chasco Elementary, 7906 Ridge Road, Port Richey
o Fasano Shelter, 11611 Denton Ave., in Hudson.

Persons with special needs or pets should go to the Fasano shelter. Residents who need assistance to evacuate their home should call the Resident Information Center at 727-847-8959. If you have water entering your home and need life-saving assistance call 9-1-1. Rains from Tropical Storm Debby have caused flooding above the 100 year flood level. Pasco County remains under a Tropical Storm Warning.

In addition sand and sandbags are available at:

• West Pasco Government Center, 7536 State St., New Port Richey
• 7918 Rhodes Rd., Hudson, Fire Station #10,
• 2952 Seven Springs Blvd., New Port Richey, Fire Station #17
• Mitchell Field Park located at 4711 Little Rd, New Port Richey
• 6907 Dairy Rd., Zephyrhills, Fire Station#1

County services open today include:
• County Offices
• Clerk’s Office Courts
• Schools
• PCPT Transit Buses are running regular routes

For further information, please contact the Resident Information Center at 727-847-8959 or visit www.pascocountyfl.net.

Map
⇐Previous
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
Quoting LargoFl:


According to that image, the NE GOMEX water temps took a big hit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Message to those of you in North Florida:




AP Photo/the Florida Times Union/Kelly Jordan  From Yahoo News:
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/tropical-storm-debby -heads-for-florida-slideshow/message-referring-rai nfall-tropical-storm-system-displayed-san-photo-03 1920325.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
Quoting AllStar17:
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.


That would be very ugly for the JAX metro area if that happens. JAX has had a foot of rain already I believe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Debby was the biggest forecasting headache since Fay...at least. It's absurd that people are bashing others for not nailing where it was going and how strong it would be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Another link, huh? Do you ever plan to post anything of import, or is it your intention to just spam this forum with your URL (while giving your site a really bad name)? Not cool, friend...

Some people struggle with unique content generation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
Quoting Jax82:
Debby looks elongated at this hour, and it does appear she will be making it ashore soon. Being in Jax, it looks like all the rain is to the N and E of her, we've already had the rainiest June day on record here yesterday, and more on the way.

Hey, have been checking in to jax news 4 online to see how you lot are doing up there. Wow for the east side of the state I think everyone has forgot about you. Major floods, sink holes, homes underwater, rivers well over flood stage and I think a one day rainfall record. Yowza

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RickWPB:
Remember that the NHC doesn't officially call it "landfall" until the center of the storm crosses the coastline. Since Debby's center is so large, it will take some time.


I thought the time of landfall is when the center of the center makes landfall. Not when the whole center crosses the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is there any chance that Debbie could hit the east coast later in the forecast period?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting susieq110:

The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
Another link, huh? Do you ever plan to post anything of import, or is it your intention to just spam this forum with your URL (while giving your site a really bad name)? Not cool, friend...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Remember that the NHC doesn't officially call it "landfall" until the center of the storm crosses the coastline. Since Debby's center is so large, it will take some time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxgeek723:


That's more of a theorem; postulates are accepted as truth.


Maybe I should have chosen the word 'hypothesis'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Been a while since I checked in. Just my observation, but it appears as if Debby has started a move to the ENE/NE based on satellite imagery. And she is hanging tough with numerous low-topped bands rotating around the center. Thinking perhaps landfall around Horseshoe Beach, FL (between Keaton Beach and Cedar Key).


Posted by myself at 1:54pm. Not to toot my own horn or anything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are the models picking up on any other development after Debbie?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last comment for today.The only two forecaster's that can't be run off this blog unless they have extremely thick skin are the NHC and Dr. Masrer's. I am just thankful for the few that suck it up and take all the crap from the idiots.You know I am truly sorry for some of you, obliviously you did listen probably to your mother when she said , if don't have something nice to say don't say anything at all. Case closed.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


That's more of a theorem; postulates are accepted as truth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Over the past couple days Dr. Greg Forbes said the highest winds from Debby were over S.W. Florida and West Central Fl.
This was at 3000 ft above the ground with winds between 60-70mph.

That's why the tornado threat was greatest over the S.W. and West coast of Fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tween here and here


Looks like aspectre nailed it at Horseshoe Beach! An hour ahead of time, but the most accurate prediction so far :P


Quoting Jax82:
She's makin landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everybody....it looks like Debbie is nearing landfall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
622. Jax82
She's makin landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
3:00 AM JST June 27 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (1004 hPa) is located at 14.7N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.3N 121.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.4N 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea

Could be a close brush for Hong Kong...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:



Must be, kinda suspected that's why we we're getting such high winds yesterday even though we were like 275 mi from the center.


We had a 56 mph wind yesterday and a 54 mph wind today. Southwest Regional Airport in Ft. Myers. I'm right by that location in S. Fort Myers.

Right now the wind is blowing 20mph with justs to 38 mph.
But we'll have to see what kind of gust we get with the next line of showers that come through.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


"This statement is true and unprovable."



Postulates usually are :P Unprovable anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Is the pressure gradient tightening up there?


Must be, kinda suspected that's why we we're getting such high winds yesterday even though we were like 275 mi from the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:



For sure. I have seen some 40 mph gusts here in Brevard County. Also take into effect that we have brilliant sunshine mixing down the stronger winds from just off the surface. That would explain in part.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


"This statement is true and unprovable."
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:



Is the pressure gradient tightening up on the east coast as Debby moves ashore on the west coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
613. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
3:00 AM JST June 27 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (1004 hPa) is located at 14.7N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.3N 121.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.4N 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gust of 46MPH today in WPB!!!!:)
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
Debby looks almost frontal. Like the heavy rains have created a rain cooled airmass and warm tropical air is overrunning it. Sustaining the rain cooled airmass.

The biggest thunderstorms look like they are in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It on the TWCLink
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


That is impressive, as I do not think we have quite had sustained 30 mph winds during Debby in Orlando. We have definitely had gusts between 30-40mph in the occasional squalls from Sunday night until now though. The current winds in the Big Bend (near the coc) do not look impressive, 7 mph at Suwannee.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
So Debby at my house for dinner right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


have those lakes been forming in the past during the summer, or is this a recent development?


Meltwater lakes form every year to some extent. Some information about why they're important can be found in this report from the Cryospheric Processes Laboratory of CUNY.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 26June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 3mph(4.9km/h) to ENEast at 9.3mph(15km/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
MinimumPressure had increased from 993millibars to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
CTY-CrossCity : 66FD-CrystalRiver : 1FA1-CrystalRiver : KBKV-Brooksville : FA40-NewPortRichey

The WSWesternmost dot on the ENEasternmost line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The ENEasternmost line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
66FD-dumbbell is 26June12amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
FA40-dumbbell is 26June6amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
1FA1-dumbbell is 26June12pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
On 26June6pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over HorseshoeBeach in ~1hour from now

Copy&paste ssi, kxmr, a51-29.673n85.206w, ecp-30.171n85.8w, kbkv-28.57n82.656w, fa43-29.803n84.59w, 66fd-28.978n82.741w, fa40-28.232n82.764w, 1fa1-28.889n82.684w, cty, 28.3n85.9w-28.5n85.8w, 28.5n85.8w-28.6n85.8w, 28.6n85.8w-28.6n85.5w, 28.6n85.5w-29.0n85.2w, 29.0n85.2w-29.0n85.0w, 29.0n85.0w-28.9n84.7w, 28.9n84.7w-28.9n84.4w, 28.9n84.4w-29.3n83.6w, 28.9n84.4w-29.448n83.299w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
See the previous mapping to compare the difference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a quick poll.


Whats the likelihood of Debby passing within 200 miles of Bermuda!


a. 0-25

b. 26-50

c. 51-75

d. 75+


whoever sees this, please answer!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well looking at the full Atlantic water vapor loop,I think the Doc. may have been only one storm off. The upper level winds from one side of the Atlantic to the other look brutal. I'm sure someone will correct me but it looks like a pretty nasty TUTT setting up again from the Yucatan to Greenland.So trackers in my opinion only enjoy this one while you can. Standing by as usual for Crow.

I stand with you... With the loss of the MJO, it will be tough for anything big to form in July... Maybe one or two Chris like storms, but the odds of any systems of tropical origins like Debby are low I think, at least through July 20.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 650 - 600

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.