Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
My forecast for the rest of the season is as follows:

Light, followed by dark, in an alternating cycle. Some rain will fall from the sky, and it will be generally warm south of 35N, and east of 100W. It will begin to get colder starting in September, with the cold progressing from north to south.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting oakland:
Here in Ellenton,FL(near Bradenton) it's been another windy day, quick passing rain showers, but mostly just wind. We're slowly starting the drying out process here.
much flooding down there?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting jrweatherman:


Whatever you were going to forecast you were wrong:)


:)
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Quoting flbeachgirl:


Well, on the bright side, the lake behind my house is no longer low...


Mine isn't either. LOL
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Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.


I give her a new nickname Downpour Debby!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261902Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A
HOT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NELYS...UPDRAFTS COULD COALESCE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HILL COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST MAY BE ENHANCING ASCENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
REACHING 100-105...MLCIN SHOULD BE WEAK WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PER ACARS DATA INVOF AUS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
TSTMS SHOULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES BREEDS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE DEVELOPMENT
WILL FOCUS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL NELYS
SAMPLED IN THE LEDBETTER TX PROFILER WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE
RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779993 30519839 31169694 31319508 30339483 29149531
27999721 27599886 27869963 28460022 29090042 29779993
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.




Whatever you were going to forecast you were wrong:)
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Here in Ellenton,FL(near Bradenton) it's been another windy day, quick passing rain showers, but mostly just wind. We're slowly starting the drying out process here.
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Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.



wise choice.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.




I think highly of your thoughts so I hope you change your mind.


However if you feel a nap is necessary at your age......


*runs*


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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+


You live in the south, right? Forgetting how strong and direct the sun is? The heat that I am referring to is the air temperatures. Acknowleging also the currents carrying warm water. That shallow of water swings on average of 1-3 degrees between the morning and evening (coolest to warmest, respectively) this time of year
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1136 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CURTIS MILL 30.01N 84.50W
06/26/2012 E28.78 INCH WAKULLA FL PUBLIC

UNOFFICIAL MEASUREMENT. STORM TOTAL. EMPTIED 7 INCH RAIN
GAUGE 4 TIMES WITH AN ADDITIONAL .78 INCHES THEREAFTER.

Link
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I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.


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Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!


That's great news, actually. I'm happy for you!
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Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story

And we still have 2 more days of it.


Well, on the bright side, the lake behind my house is no longer low...
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debby has made landfall in the big bend area of Florida. May have slowed down again though according to satellite. I could be wrong though...
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Landfall.

Debby Drags ashore.

thank goodness..now speed up please and OUT of here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
They switched forecast areas? :P

000
FXUS64 KCRP 261725
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012


000
FXUS64 KEWX 261724 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
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Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.

Hopefully Florida will have some time to dry out after Debby is gone!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.
yes be careful up there,dont listen to the nay sayers, this is a wind and flooding rain event,heavy heavy rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Landfall.

Debby Drags ashore.

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Hopefully Debbie will move on out soon and Florida can start to dry up
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Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!

Happy for you!
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Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!
yes you folks really had a heatwave going on
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC067-262100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0022.120626T1901Z-120626T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SR 51 SOUTH OF MAYO. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BUSINESSES
ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING IN THE CITY OF MAYO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MAYO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

* REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+


A lot of that area is shallow. There are no depths.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I just added up the hourly rainfalls at JAX airport from Sunday through 2 p.m. today and got a total of 8.67" which is lower than I thought. But still more than enough. I'm gonna check again to see if I got it wrong.


The Jax airport is on the north side of town and I think most of the rain has been south of there, but I can't find the totals right now. I live on the southside close to the Intercoastal and work in Orange Park and we've been dumped on. And dumped on...and dumped on...
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It would take a parade of slow moving tropical systems to signifcantly have any long term impact on GOMEX water temps. Don't think Debby crossed any of the deep warm eddies (thankfully for Floridians), either.

BTW, I win the award for most misguided forecast track of Debby. I had her clear on the North coast of Mexico only making a glancing blow on the CONUS (South Texas). Ta-da!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+
You guys seem to forget that water moves and some warm water might move in from surrounding areas.
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Yeah I made a mistake. It's 10.69" at JAX airport starting Sunday.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
headline from msnbc news.....................................Debby's deluge: 2 feet of rain, thousands flee floods

2012 sets record for most named storms so early in Atlantic season
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


We had a 56 mph wind yesterday and a 54 mph wind today. Southwest Regional Airport in Ft. Myers. I'm right by that location in S. Fort Myers.

Right now the wind is blowing 20mph with justs to 38 mph.
But we'll have to see what kind of gust we get with the next line of showers that come through.



True that, but we became SW Florida International Airport in 1993...although people still call it Regional! ;)

It's been gusty out here at the airport all day. I think I was outside during that 54 mph gust, it was wicked!
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663. yoboi
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


when i first read this i thought it said Brian's prost**ute
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2589
Quoting flbeachgirl:


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.


I just added up the hourly rainfalls at JAX airport from Sunday through 2 p.m. today and got a total of 8.67" which is lower than I thought. But still more than enough. I'm gonna check again to see if I got it wrong.
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Quoting flbeachgirl:


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.
another foot or more of rain coming, this is going to be real bad in the next day or so
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That would be very ugly for the JAX metro area if that happens. JAX has had a foot of rain already I believe.


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes alot of downtowns under water,never saw a storm dump so much rain, and may well dump another foot or more of rain..going to be flooding all over the place even more than now, the rivers are just now overflowing their banks..add another 6-12 inches of rain?..whew...making weather history here

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5 years from now they will be saying..remember Debby!............................................ .................Hurricane Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS WITHIN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT ANYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9N...LONGITUDE 84.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 130 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FL. STORM MOTION WAS E OR
90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE
IN APALACHEE BAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL
EXTENDS EAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK ANTICIPATES THE STORM
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM DEBBY REMAINS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH
3-6 INCHES ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE ONGOING FLOODING. A LOW TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...AND FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. AVOID DRIVING OVER
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Yeah she's going to give us another blob to the NE of her and keep driving weakened squall lines through south central Florida. The blob to the NE of Debby today won't be much to look at according at to the NHC which has Debby weakening to TD status pretty shortly. Not going to strengthen over Florida the next two days either. In my opinion Debby will be catching up to some of the energy she ejected. If she can suck some of that energy back into her circulation she may actually strengthen again.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Not really. Much of the water that Debby "cooled" is shallow. Also, consider this is the end of June, and it is not uncommon for temps in MUCH deeper water to rise 1-2 degrees in a few days during May. The GOM will have no issues warming back up.

Yeah, the SST's can warm and cool in a relatively short period.
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Quoting islander101010:
live.oak.fl.downtown.under.water.love.wanne.time
yes alot of downtowns under water,never saw a storm dump so much rain, and may well dump another foot or more of rain..going to be flooding all over the place even more than now, the rivers are just now overflowing their banks..add another 6-12 inches of rain?..whew...making weather history here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.



yea true
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Quoting weatherlover94:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.
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Quoting weatherlover94:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up

Not really. Much of the water that Debby "cooled" is shallow. Also, consider this is the end of June, and it is not uncommon for temps in MUCH deeper water to rise 1-2 degrees in a few days during May. The GOM will have no issues warming back up.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
live.oak.fl.downtown.under.water.love.wanne.time
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Quoting LargoFl:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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