Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Looks like Debby'x finally moving off to the east. Never thought I'd say this about a low in the gulf this time of year, but not looking to tropical.Although I can see why the cone was so wide, her circulation looks to huge.

Quoting Neapolitan:
They've got at least two more weeks of ugliness--and if I had to guess, it'll be longer than that. As has been mentioned here before, fire officials believe the High Park fire will probably burn until snow starts falling four months from now.

Where is that pastry shop in Naples, I'm here and want to try it out

Quoting theshepherd:


It's hard to forecast meander.

:)

Got that right. :)

orlando.news.said.shes.making.landfall.do.they.look .before.they.say.that?

lol

Quoting islander101010:
orlando.news.said.shes.making.landfall.do.they.lo ok .before.they.say.that?

Quoting trunkmonkey:





Where is that pastry shop in Naples, I'm here and want to try it out

Might need an umbrella for that pastry.

i see beryl is a naked swirl again, should exit faster now, less rain for florida.



starting to go E faster

i don't care either way,but levi post links to his site almost daily,a highly respected blogger,but rules should be the same for all,imo no big deal....winds here locally on siesta key are slowly lowering.

doing good now

Quoting trunkmonkey:





Where is that pastry shop in Naples, I'm here and want to try it out

You're there? Wish I was; I won't be back in until tomorrow afternoon, then I'm off in another direction three hours later. But, hey, at least I'm working, right? ;-) What are you hungry for? Naples is loaded with restaurants, of course, being a tourist town. Of course, while it's not as bad as it used to be, it's a wintertime tourist town, meaning that some (many?) eateries are shut down for the summer--though it's far easier to get a seat in the ones that are open.

Radar says there's a small line of storms sort of training through there this morning; stay dry.

Well, I would not be so quick to rule out any kind of climate change for our planet. No, I am not one of those chest pounding, doomsayers, but....

Our Earth has gone thru extreme climate changes of millions of years...hot & moist, ice age, continents breaking apart, oceans & lakes created and then turned to deserts. Yep, she does change. Proven scientifically.

Maybe, just maybe, we could consider than there are subtle changes going on and all our fancy computers and such may not have all the necessary information to make a correct call. Just looking at all the confusion and debate over Debby and wondering why she is still out there, not really moving after all the models (logically) called for her to get picked up by trough or grabbed by ridge and then move rapidly away either east or west (pick your favorite). Chris formed in COLD water and became a HURRICANE and defied tradtion/logic. Again, just some thoughts.

I love this blog and have learned so much, but have also learned sometimes you just can't outguess Mother Nature!! LOL

It appears that the center has been adjusted to be more south since yesterday...?!?!? The official movement is due East, but I've seen some posters saying it's drifting SE... I live near Orlando and we've already been deluged with rain... long-time lurker and appreciate all of the valuable knowledge and insight on this board!

Quoting islander101010:
orlando.news.said.shes.making.landfall.do.they.lo ok .before.they.say.that?

Just curious: is your space bar crosswired with your "." key?

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It going to Tampa

Looks to be following the GFS model. Why should we now dought the GFS after what we've seen over the past few days?

Quoting Neapolitan:
They've got at least two more weeks of ugliness--and if I had to guess, it'll be longer than that. As has been mentioned here before, fire officials believe the High Park fire will probably burn until snow starts falling four months from now.

Colorado does have a monsoon season coming very soon. My understanding is dry thunderstorms caused some of their fires well soon they will have wet thunderstorms that should help. Near 110 here today, it was 105 yesterday with 42 days without rain. Lots of fires here from those who are throwing cigarettes out their car windows.

Quoting dearmas:
Local news in Tampa said there is a new low that might form in the Gulf of Mexico, is anyone seeing that??? If so big question where is it headed??
;) Thanks

That was your DVR from last Thursday please push the "live tv" button.

Morning, everybody!

This is the only flood picture I've seen from Wakulla County.

Picture taken by Donnie Gay.

Quoting Neapolitan:
You're there? Wish I was; I won't be back in until tomorrow afternoon, then I'm off in another direction three hours later. But, hey, at least I'm working, right? ;-) What are you hungry for? Naples is loaded with restaurants, of course, being a tourist town. Of course, while it's not as bad as it used to be, it's a wintertime tourist town, meaning that some (many?) eateries are shut down for the summer--though it's far easier to get a seat in the ones that are open.

Radar says there's a small line of storms sort of training through there this morning; stay dry.

Suns out, nope, it's raining again, suns out, no heavy rain lots O wind! T- storm warning, just the way the weather is here in South Fla! These days.

Watching the local news here in Tampa this morning. Bayshore Boulevard looks as if it's now a part of the Bay. Looks way worse than the picture above.

Based on the latest recon vortex message, I would be surprised if this is still a TS at 11am. Unless they find some stronger winds somewhere. No deep thunderstorms around the center, shear, dry air really taking their toll on Debby.

Debby appears to be still following the GFS model
Debby at 21 hours.

Quoting LightningCharmer:
Might need an umbrella for that pastry.

Ya, think?

Hi
Did anyone know that even here in Seoul we are experiencing serious drought?
It's actually the worst drought since meteorological records began in 1908.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Just curious: is your space bar crosswired with your "." key?

no, he broke his spacebar, right?

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Colorado does have a monsoon season coming very soon. My understanding is dry thunderstorms caused some of their fires well soon they will have wet thunderstorms that should help. Near 110 here today, it was 105 yesterday with 42 days without rain. Lots of fires here from those who are throwing cigarettes out their car windows.

I lived in both Colorado Springs and a suburb of Denver, and there was definitely a mini-monsoon season, one with lots of very wet thunderstorms (and more than a few hailstorms). These mostly seemed to occur with the Southwest monsoon that gives the Sonoran and Mojave deserts much of their rain. But if the synoptic-scale hot/dry pattern sets in and becomes large enough to become almost self-sustaining, the area may not experience a "normal" summer rainfall pattern.

Keep your fingers crossed...

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no, he broke his spacebar, right?

sorry.bloggers...g.w

I think i just saw that we have the highest probability of el nino since 04.
But was that a shortlived el nino in 2004, because 2004 and 2005 were both very active hurricane years.
I cant seem to recall what the el nino/la nina situation was like so long a ago.

Quoting islander101010:
sorry.bloggers...g.w

what does that mean?
lol, i dont understand
its ok though if your spacebar is broken

just recorded 1 ft. of rain at the farm in rocky hammock. this old lady is guessing debby's going up the suwannee river into the okeefunokee swamp, then on to jax ..

Wave around 8n/35w looks interesting, also has a decent spin with it.

Today's pattern looks to bring squally weather from Tampa to Ft. Myers as Debby moves Eastward.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Wave around 8n/35w looks interesting, also has a decent spin with it.

Yes. I just noticed that too.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I think i just saw that we have the highest probability of el nino since 04.
But was that a shortlived el nino in 2004, because 2004 and 2005 were both very active hurricane years.
I cant seem to recall what the el nino/la nina situation was like so long a ago.

El Nino or no El Nino, in 2004, we got spanked back to back with Frances and Jeanne in S. Fl in September. Add our very wet spring pattern (which we had in 04) and I am now getting very nervous about a repeat of that season. Again, all it takes is 1 to hit to ruin your day, but 2 hitting 3 weeks apart was just plain mean. Mother Nature must have a sick, wicked sense of humor!

How about that 12z BAMM track...over the FL peninsula into the Atlantic, the loop back over the peninsula into the Gulf again. 12Z BAMS is similar.
Debby the Defiant is giving serious consideration to those tracks.

Euro has the EPAC storm too:


The US sits under high pressure for most of this time.
Could a hot couple of weeks

for a storm at 8N 35W, IF that even came to the east coast...how many days does it take a storm to get to the east coast from there?

Quoting Sasha:
It appears that the center has been adjusted to be more south since yesterday...?!?!? The official movement is due East, but I've seen some posters saying it's drifting SE... I live near Orlando and we've already been deluged with rain... long-time lurker and appreciate all of the valuable knowledge and insight on this board!

East movement with a Southward drift is correct, she is south of the forecast points. Not much left of Debby at the moment however.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
637 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION BASED ON LATEST ADVISORY AND INCREASED
TORNADO THREAT FOR DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HIL LSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0N...LONGITUDE 84.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF
CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
FL. STORM MOTION WAS E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS
45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST DRIFT TOWARD EAST NORTHEAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT THIS TIME ARE INLAND FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDES WITH FLOODING IMPACTING SOME OF THE LOWEST LYING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE NATURE COAST. BECAUSE TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SO SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT REMAINS LIKELY.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY...KEEPING NETWORK
COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 12 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

Quoting Neapolitan:
I lived in both Colorado Springs and a suburb of Denver, and there was definitely a mini-monsoon season, one with lots of very wet thunderstorms (and more than a few hailstorms). These mostly seemed to occur with the Southwest monsoon that gives the Sonoran and Mojave deserts much of their rain. But if the synoptic-scale hot/dry pattern sets in and becomes large enough to become almost self-sustaining, the area may not experience a "normal" summer rainfall pattern.

Keep your fingers crossed...

One Summer I spent a week or so in Denver and it stormed every afternoon, saw hail a couple of times. Hope they and the other states like NM and Texas plus others get a little relief soon, temps around 110 are tough on people and animals.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Debby appears to be still following the GFS model
Debby at 21 hours.

In alot of ways Florida was fortunate with Debby, what if she was alot more organized and then stalled over Land you would be looking at record flooding and more loss of lives.

On the possibility of a later loop back to the west...if Debby manages to slide south far enough, that west loop becomes more likely as the trough would be more likely to leave it behind the further south she is. So that is something to watch for, any south component in the motion. If it is starting soon, it could add up to significant difference in latitude at the critical recurvature-or-not-recurvature time.

Wow.

Storm has moved 0.1E and 0.1S since 1a.m.

That's just about ONE mile per hour if diagonal, or 2 miles per hour if it did a stair-step...

Looks like we have a new player in the central Atlantic. That little blob has a nice spin to it, it even has convection near its COC. And no shear to boot! It would be just too funny to get storm #5 before July 1st. What a record that would be!

Quoting dartboardmodel:
Looks like we have a new player in the central Atlantic. That little blob has a nice spin to it, it even has convection near its COC. And no shear to boot! It would be just too funny to get storm #5 before July 1st. What a record that would be!

no models develop it

Large COC makes it kinda hard, but Debby appears to be moving just S of due E. Probably a temporary movement before a due E track starts.

Quoting dartboardmodel:
Looks like we have a new player in the central Atlantic. That little blob has a nice spin to it, it even has convection near its COC. And no shear to boot! It would be just too funny to get storm #5 before July 1st. What a record that would be!

Saw the same thing as soon as visible imagery was available this morning.

Quoting stillwaiting:
i don't care either way,but levi post links to his site almost daily,a highly respected blogger,but rules should be the same for all,imo no big deal....winds here locally on siesta key are slowly lowering.

Levi's blog is on Wunderground.

Quoting dartboardmodel:
Looks like we have a new player in the central Atlantic. That little blob has a nice spin to it, it even has convection near its COC. And no shear to boot! It would be just too funny to get storm #5 before July 1st. What a record that would be!

Low and mid level steering doesn't look favorable in terms of track.


Steering will push it into the S. American continent, unless the storm really strenghtens in the next day or two to get some northern pull in motion.