Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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Quoting RitaEvac:
News that doesn't make the news...

5th quake in Texas since Saturday

The series of quakes began with a magnitude 2.1 quake near Keene, about 25 miles south of Fort Worth, just before 1 a.m. on Saturday.

A 3.4 magnitude quake shook Tilden in South Texas at 3:55 a.m. Sunday. Tilden is about 40 miles west of Beeville and south of San Antonio.

reports of windows broken and items being knocked over

Definately due to fracking.
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Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like this is poised to make landfall this evening.


Agree... at least overnight.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Tropical Storm Doksuri

Doksuri means hawk in Korean.


look at that.....thing.
and we give debby a hard time...
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I think most will agree the GFS did great job with Debby. What is even more interesting it that 300 hours or so ago, it even predicted the large mass of convection heading east across the upper part of FL, leaving a somewhat naked swirling low behind. If that happens, then the GFS really perform amazingly. . . and it looks as though it may very well pan out that way. Now that that has happened, the low should now drop south a little and move east, across the state, just north of Tampa bay, if the GFS prediction stays almost perfect. (it nailed the intensity and track, timing may have been off, but I'm just saying).

Area Mets call for lot heavy rain for Central Fl, similar to Saturday's and Sunday's rain.

Oh, Denis Philips, TB Met, mentioned last week that he was pretty sure FL would not see 2 ft of rain and if it did, he would eat crow. He may want to start warming the griddle.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
738
WTNT44 KNHC 261452
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY
AGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER
BY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT
WELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS
WEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND
MAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A
DROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE
WINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION
OF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT
TOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT
BEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND
A NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE
OF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


Looks like the 11:00 o'clock cone will sweep it through Florida faster.
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Quoting cluelessthunder:
I didn't invite Debby to my house. Keeps drifting south?


Yeah drifting south:

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Gust of 29mph in WPB!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4460
I didn't invite Debby to my house. Keeps drifting south?
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993 mb
40 mph
thats a pretty big difference
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less
,overnight/tomorrow morning,crystal river area
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Looks like this is poised to make landfall this evening.
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738
WTNT44 KNHC 261452
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY
AGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER
BY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT
WELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS
WEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND
MAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A
DROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE
WINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION
OF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT
TOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT
BEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND
A NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE
OF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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Quoting Autistic2:
If all the convection got blown off then the rain is almost over, for fl, correct? Will the low level coc fire more convection?
Mets are forecasting a few more inches in central Florida, but I'm not sure why. Looks like after this next band we'll be in the dry half of the storm with nothing but dry air in the gulf behind it.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
I can't believe it!
995.7 mb
(~ 29.40 inHg)
18.6 knots (~ 21.4 mph)

It has low winds, yet it has low pressure.


There is no real convection around the storm therefore can't transport down the winds from the thunderstorms, because there aint any
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469
WTNT34 KNHC 261451
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN EASTWARD OR EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE CENTER OF DEBBY
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY. THE WATER COULD REACH
THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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083
WTNT24 KNHC 261450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 84.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 180SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 84.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less


I agree. If you look at base radial velocity radar out of TAL, you can clearly see the axis of rotation shifting slowly east still. This is another way to check motion in addition to vis loop.
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Debby has weakened to 35 kts...
See NHC advisory.
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Tropical Storm Doksuri

Doksuri means hawk in Korean.
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If all the convection got blown off then the rain is almost over, for fl, correct? Will the low level coc fire more convection?
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can someone give me links to the best long-range model sites?

I want to view things like MSLP, precip, etc...

i've used RAP and unisys in the past, but I don't really like their interface
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Quoting theshepherd:


I saw that.
I called them back again and the nice lady said "apparently the fellow you spoke to earlier hasn't read his emails".

ROFL :))

LOL he was prolly playing video games
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less

Hmm... it does look better than yesterday... but still...
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Quoting theshepherd:


Grab a tarp and hang in there.
Maybe FEMA will come to your aid.

Just got off the phone with the Fla Div of Emergency Management.

They have drafted a request for a State of Emergency.
It's sitting on the Gov's desk awaiting signature.



Don't know who you talked with, but the Gov. signed a State of Emergency on Monday. I'm with SERT and we have been on alert since yesterday afternoon.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/PressReleases/ EO-%2012-140%20%20Emergency%20Management%20-%20Tro pical%20Storm%20Debby.pdf
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landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-039

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSIONS FOR 27/0000,0600Z AND
27/1200,1800Z ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO FLY
AS TASKED ON TCPOD 12-038.
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Quoting waterskiman:

This was Monday,

Palm Beach Post Capital Bureau

Tallahassee —


Gov. Rick Scott today signed an executive order declaring a statewide state of emergency because of Tropical Storm Debby.

The order directs all state agencies, including the Florida National Guard, to provide any necessary assistance when requested by local governments.

“Because of the broad impact of Tropical Storm Debby, virtually every county in Florida could be affected. Some communities are already grappling with flooding, wind damage and electrical outages,” Scott said. “This executive order allows the State Emergency Response Team to quickly and effectively coordinate the response and ensure needed resources are available.”


I saw that.
I called them back again and the nice lady said "apparently the fellow you spoke to earlier hasn't read his emails".

ROFL :))
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I do believe that Debby just got decapitated! Her low level swirl is being left behind swirling in the gulf while her upper and mid circulation has been shot eastward. What happens when you cut a worm in half. You get two! I think we might have two storms or our hands. I know I have seen this before, I just forget which storms they were? Man I feel sorry for Florida, they might not be done with Debby (or Debbies) yet.
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Quoting weatherbro:


Well, I guess Florida's gonna have a heat wave in the wake of Debby! Just in time for the 4th of July!!!


A heat wave in the wake of all this rain is a chilling prospect.
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 26June12pmGMT:
29.1n85.2w, 29.0n84.7w have been re-evaluated&altered*
29.0n85.0w, 28.9n84.7w, 28.9n84.4w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from ESEast at 3.2mph(5.2km/h) to East at 3mph(4.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 40knots(46mph)74km/h
MinimumPressure had held steady at 992millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
FA43-DogIsland : 66FD-CrystalRiver : 1FA1-CrystalRiver : KBKV-Brooksville : FA40-NewPortRichey

The SSWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The Westernmost dot on the easternmost line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The FA43-dot is the 25June6pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
The 66FD-dumbbell is the 26June12amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
The FA40-dumbbell is the 26June6amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
On 26June12pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over CrystalRiver in ~1day9hours from now

Copy&paste bix, liy, mhh, a51-29.673n85.206w, ecp-30.171n85.8w, kbkv-28.57n82.656w, fa43-29.803n84.59w, 66fd-28.978n82.741w, fa40-28.232n82.764w, 1fa1, 26.0n87.6w- 26.5n87.4w- 27.0n87.3w- 27.8n86.5w- 28.3n85.9w, 28.3n85.9w-28.5n85.8w, 28.5n85.8w-28.6n85.8w, 28.6n85.8w-28.6n85.5w, 28.6n85.5w-29.0n85.2w, 29.0n85.2w-29.0n85.0w, 29.0n85.0w-28.9n84.7w, 28.9n84.7w-28.9n84.4w, 28.9n84.7w-28.889n82.684w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

* For the 26June6amGMT ATCF, 29.1n85.2w was re-evaluated&altered to 29.0n85.0w
For the 26June12pmGMT ATCF, 29.0n84.7w was re-evaluated&altered to 28.9n84.7w
So incorrect vector(direction&speed)s had been calculated for 26June12amGMT and 26June6amGMT from using the original incorrect positions, which led to incorrect straightline projections for those times.
Through recalculation using the correct positions, both the vectors and straightline-projections have been corrected to reflect that change.
See the previous mapping to compare the difference.
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Quoting windshear1993:
Wonder when will we see Ernesto

Me too...
If Ernesto forms before July 1, it will be the third June storm, and fifth overall... Amazing.
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Quoting Articuno:

Heard there was one near Corpus Christi as well.
A 3.4


well california is back to getting earthquakes so the big one wont be for a bit, i dont think.
Cascadia is still a go in the next century, no earthquakes up there at all.
Pressure building

GM CCS, was busy for a moment, with school stuff.
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Wonder when will we see Ernesto
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Quoting Autistic2:
Do NHC update again at 11? Is it still E at three? Suddenly it is sunshine here in St. Augustine. Will we get any more rain. Thinking of starting the BBQ!
Yes to the first question and we don't know to the second one. :)
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214. 7544
she dosent seem to moving again at this hour
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I can't believe it!
995.7 mb
(~ 29.40 inHg)
18.6 knots (~ 21.4 mph)

It has low winds, yet it has low pressure.
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No new rain yet today, here in Inverness. Lost a large dead tree overnight, fell into the road. Public Works is cleaning it up.
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Do NHC update again at 11? Is it still E at three? Suddenly it is sunshine here in St. Augustine. Will we get any more rain. Thinking of starting the BBQ!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ok, to all those who say that this blob could develop, it meanders around 1013mb for a while and then hits S American in 144 hrs as you can see here on this map where it is directly N of Venezuela
So marginal you cant even really see it :)



A pattern like this is conducive to Deans and Felixes it seems


Well, I guess Florida's gonna have a heat wave in the wake of Debby! Just in time for the 4th of July!!!
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Got painting to do..
BBL
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Heh!
Debbs is a rather Large, Lazy, Overweight, Wet, girl.
Not the kind of chick you want to have visiting for long.
And yet, she just refuses to leave.

Some people are like that....
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Central Florida lakes are within 6" of minimum desirable water levels. Looks like we are going to make it there with rain for the next two days on saturated soils.
Sorry for the folks in the Pan Handle that just got dropped on.

Great job with the forecast Levi.
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I expect Debby to intensify in the SW Atlantic by Friday/Saturday!
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Quoting Kristina40:


Nice, we're only on the 4th day of getting pounded by Debby. Glad they could get around to doing that :D

This was Monday,

Palm Beach Post Capital Bureau

Tallahassee —


Gov. Rick Scott today signed an executive order declaring a statewide state of emergency because of Tropical Storm Debby.

The order directs all state agencies, including the Florida National Guard, to provide any necessary assistance when requested by local governments.

“Because of the broad impact of Tropical Storm Debby, virtually every county in Florida could be affected. Some communities are already grappling with flooding, wind damage and electrical outages,” Scott said. “This executive order allows the State Emergency Response Team to quickly and effectively coordinate the response and ensure needed resources are available.”
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The big picture...

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Quoting pcola57:


Hate to tell ya buddy but we got zero rain from Debby..
Just overcast and windy days...
Otherwise nada..
NWS needs to look at that..
My bad, that record was set earlier this month. I fixed my error in the post above, sorry!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
News that doesn't make the news...

5th quake in Texas since Saturday

The series of quakes began with a magnitude 2.1 quake near Keene, about 25 miles south of Fort Worth, just before 1 a.m. on Saturday.

A 3.4 magnitude quake shook Tilden in South Texas at 3:55 a.m. Sunday. Tilden is about 40 miles west of Beeville and south of San Antonio.

reports of windows broken and items being knocked over


Heard there was one near Corpus Christi as well.
A 3.4
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Thanks 192 Neapolitan!
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200. LBAR
Low pressure developing off of Charleston? Check out the turning on the radar.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.