Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012 | +34 |
| Permalink | A A A |
|
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
Yes it's going to make landfall in the next few hours probably.. I suspect the northeast jog will turn more east tonight as it crosses the state
a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!
Hey there St. Pete Bill.... Glad you like the picture I took that you use for your Avatar.
Oh, I know it is an adage just about everywhere. It doesn't apply much here during the summer (we have a "rubber stamp forecast" during the summer). During the winter, however, it is not unheard of to have a high in the low 40s one day, and in the 70s the next.
I sympathize with you, though Central FL has been pleasantly mild recently due to Debby's continued presence. If it were me, the home gym would be in an air-conditioned space if at all possible.
It looks like TS Debby is moving a bit faster than predicted? I was hoping the rain shield would shift away from the Big Bend area (and other areas that have received too much rain) and more to E. Central FL so my area could get a couple more inches. The last month and a half has brought beneficial rains, but the lakes and the aquifer still need a lot more to catch up.
Eww... stalling off the other coast, in the middle of the gulf stream, then going ashore again. Thankfully, the BAMM model is pretty simplistic (actually, it is also designed for deeper storms, too). Also, all of the other dynamic models posted here on WU forecast Debby going out to sea permanently.
yeah for us in Canada im watching her!
or 0.87 cubic kilometers...
Also the GFS model predicted Debby to be a shallow, yet vertically stacked system. The other models predicted a deep and vertically stacked system with good Upper Level Anti-Cyclonic flow to ventilate the system had that happened the system would have taken the westward track. But wind shear increased and stayed fairly strong keeping Debby's convection to the North and East of her COC.
The fact that anyone tries to predict nature's unpredictability is quite a feat. Many great meteorologists have failed many, many times. Just because one fails, does not mean that they are horrible forecasters. I wish that some ignorant people on this blog that bash people for their missed predictions would grow up and realize that. I did not catch the earlier statements about Levi... But IMO, he is probably the most insightful minds on this blog. And I guarantee that there was absolutely no reason to bash him. Period. Kudos to those who got this right.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
11:00 PM PhST June 26 2012
==============================================
"DINDO" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move west northwest
At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 14.4°N 129.7°E or 540 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.
Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring occasional rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming frequent rains over the western section. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "DINDO".
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
The EURO thought Debby would drift more to the W and high pressure would build in kicking her back to TX. The problem is the EURO never believed the trough over the E atlantic would amplify enough to pick her up and send her out to sea. The EURO basically played catch up and failed miserably. The GFS never let go of it's solution and pretty much nailed the forecast. The GFS was the first model to even sniff out Debby. The EURO just needs a new upgrade and maybe it will be king again.
I livei n Houston too.
We have 3 window units to supplement our Main unit. One near the laundry room (150$ small). One near in the Master (99$ - very small), and one we keep in the garage and only install it in case of emergency which cools 1000 sqr ft (400$ and as big as you can buy that uses a normal plug/outlet), which we've only had to use once thank goodness, when the fan on the OUTSIDE unit went out in the middle of summer and our repair guy had to special order the part. He couldn't find one in town. We blocked off unnecessary portions of the house, put towels at the bottoms of doors leading to those areas to keep back the heat, and all three units plus all the other steps we took above made the house liveable. Most people here don't have this level of backup however.
a little bit
Here I thought this site was "PG".
11 a.m.
Tampa Police Marine Patrol rescues two baby manatees
The manatee calves washed ashore along flooded Bayshore Boulevard this morning with their mother, who was dead. Officers called Tampa's Lowry Park Zoo and Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission to help with the rescue. The calves will be transported to the zoo.
Related to the tail end of the front and Debby's circulation.
Link
instead of a red flag flying they have the white flag flying...
Yep, I think the bottom line is that weather is darn changeable just about everywhere, though of course it's more changeable in some places than others and that changeability is sometimes seasonal.
The high elevations of Colorado are well known for regular single-day temperature swings in excess of 40 degrees. For instance, the average daily temperature swing last year for Alamosa, Colorado was 34F, with one day boasting a 54F degree swing. Hence another common adage in Colorado... "dress in layers."
:)
That is impressive, as I do not think we have quite had sustained 30 mph winds during Debby in Orlando. We have definitely had gusts between 30-40mph in the occasional squalls from Sunday night until now though. The current winds in the Big Bend (near the coc) do not look impressive, 7 mph at Suwannee.
Debby is one of the toughest storms I've had to try to forecast.
In any case, the winds on the Sunshine Skyway Bridge gusted to 67 mph in the last few hours:
http://bridgemonitoring.com/bridges/Skyway/sky.ht m
Scroll down and click "Tower Center" Spreadsheet data.
Don't sweat it.
Half the arm-chair QBs were wrong, including myself.
The majority of the experts were wrong.
The majority of the computer models were wrong.
NHC botched this forecast the worst I've ever seen them in 10 or 15 years.
The past 10 years they've been almost perfect, but this one was just totally blown.
Kinda looks that way...
I stand with you... With the loss of the MJO, it will be tough for anything big to form in July... Maybe one or two Chris like storms, but the odds of any systems of tropical origins like Debby are low I think, at least through July 20.
Viewing: 551 - 601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index