Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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For West Palm Beach...

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Quoting icmoore:
I just read a story on Bay News 9 about a mother manatee and her 2 calves washing up on Bayshore Blvd in Tampa. The 2 calves were hanging on to her body bobbing up and down. She did not survive but the calves are alive. Talk about flooding, wow.


I also heard on Fox 13 that a couple of guys tied the dead mother to a pole to keep the calves close to her. It avoided the calves being killed or injured.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.

Everybody but you obviously.

Hey guys. Had a horrible night.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
The GFS was driving drunk according to most here and in the professional field too. GFS was a lonely model that's for sure for a time. No one to blame on Debby, she was just playing with everyone's emotions.


Drakeon came on here and stated his case for Florida. He was dead on.
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Looks like a little band coming in for us. I hope Largo gets his roof taken care of before it gets here.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting Tygor:


That's because most of the Texans are trying to find water and stay cool. It's pretty desert-like across most of the state.

Sorry I haven't been posting. Just got back from the oasis on my camel...
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Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.


I think people who dont have AC care..you might try reading the HPC discussions because yesterday they were talking about temperatures reaching around 110 if Debby is stronger..I dont call that sensible and I lived in the SOUTH all my life..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14582
Quoting jrweatherman:


Rob from Crown Weather called the GFS "garbage". We know what Levi thought of it.
i.thought.rio.grande.valley
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Quoting flbeachgirl:


The only thing we are waiting on now is for the POTUS to declare a disaster. I work for local government in Northeast Florida and we are tracking our damage in the county. Anyone who sustains damage from the storm should call their local Emergency Management Office to report the damage so it can be added to the tally for reporting to the state, which will determine if a disaster is declared.

Thanks I was wondering how that worked for POTUS to 'decide' if we get help or not. Hopefully he won't tell us to pound sand like he did with the gov in Texas after their fires.
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The GFS was driving drunk according to most here and in the professional field too. GFS was a lonely model that's for sure for a time. No one to blame on Debby, she was just playing with everyone's emotions.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Birds flying in Tampa look like extras in a Billy Blanks workout video right now.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Rob from Crown Weather called the GFS "garbage". We know what Levi thought of it.

Now that you mention it, I don't see Levi right now... where is he? He's usually on at this time of day.
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Quoting air360:
You know, if the models could speak I cant help but laugh when I picture the GFS casually sitting back shaking its head saying "I told ya so".

What a crazy storm this has been!


Rob from Crown Weather called the GFS "garbage". We know what Levi thought of it.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Lets hope Debby dosent intensify-from the HPC discussion

THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS RECORD
HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST...WITH
MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IF
DEBBY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY.



Who cares if it intensifies, its going to be well offshore and the subsidence will only create dry and hot weather across North and South Carolina. The first sensible heat wave of the summer is going to lock in across the southeast US by this weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:

I think It will make landfall either tonight ir tomorrow morning and then it will speed up a little bit as it crosses Florida and it'll then exit into the Atlantic around Thursday maybe...... Who knows how strong itll get over the Atlantic


It will be tonight
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Quoting air360:
You know, if the models could speak I cant help but laugh when I picture the GFS casually sitting back shaking its head saying "I told ya so".

What a crazy storm this has been!


ECMWF is the most reliable model?

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
-GFS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just read a story on Bay News 9 about a mother manatee and her 2 calves washing up on Bayshore Blvd in Tampa. The 2 calves were hanging on to her body bobbing up and down. She did not survive but the calves are alive. Talk about flooding, wow.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting gator23:

DJMedik=Spin Doctor...

That's what I was called in the Army!
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Remember Fl. for the most part is flat very hard to get a river 13 feet over flood stage. If that was in S. fl. just about everything south of lake Okeechobee would be Atlantic ocean.
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Quoting Seastep:


Take out the s in https://

I also took out the :large at the end, too.


Ok thanks smarty pants(please don't be offended) :)

I learn something every day!!
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
Debby is done for as a major weather maker over Florida. No way convection fires again strongly for Debby like yesterday over the panhandle. I thought our big read blob yesterday would stay connected to Debby overnight, but since that has gone east Debby's going to struggle to fire much than a few moderate squalls over central Florida. With all Debby's energy ejecting NE it will interesting to see if she anything but a swirl when she gets out of Florida eventually. Would be nice if convection does occur that it would be right over the center of circulation. Keep it interesting.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Right now, ADT isn't helpful, but here it is:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2012 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 28:54:04 N Lon : 84:14:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 995.9mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : 12.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.2 degrees

************************************************* ***
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278. yoboi
Quoting windshear1993:
Wonder when will we see Ernesto


after debby
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
You know, if the models could speak I cant help but laugh when I picture the GFS casually sitting back shaking its head saying "I told ya so".

What a crazy storm this has been!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


OK Seastep..how did you get those pics to post?


Take out the s in https://

I also took out the :large at the end, too.
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Quoting gator23:


Tonight

I think It will make landfall either tonight ir tomorrow morning and then it will speed up a little bit as it crosses Florida and it'll then exit into the Atlantic around Thursday maybe...... Who knows how strong itll get over the Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets hope Debby dosent intensify-from the HPC discussion

THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS RECORD
HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST...WITH
MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IF
DEBBY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14582
Quoting Seastep:


Doesn't look like a good place to put a house. Almost like its in a bowl.



OK Seastep..how did you get those pics to post?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773

Oooo it worked for me! I deleted the s from https.
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Quoting waterskiman:

This was Monday,

Palm Beach Post Capital Bureau

Tallahassee —


Gov. Rick Scott today signed an executive order declaring a statewide state of emergency because of Tropical Storm Debby.

The order directs all state agencies, including the Florida National Guard, to provide any necessary assistance when requested by local governments.

“Because of the broad impact of Tropical Storm Debby, virtually every county in Florida could be affected. Some communities are already grappling with flooding, wind damage and electrical outages,” Scott said. “This executive order allows the State Emergency Response Team to quickly and effectively coordinate the response and ensure needed resources are available.”


The only thing we are waiting on now is for the POTUS to declare a disaster. I work for local government in Northeast Florida and we are tracking our damage in the county. Anyone who sustains damage from the storm should call their local Emergency Management Office to report the damage so it can be added to the tally for reporting to the state, which will determine if a disaster is declared.
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Wow, June CV?

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link


Doesn't look like a good place to put a house. Almost like its in a bowl.

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Current EPac ACE: 11.8
Current NAtl ACE: 7.28
Current NAtl storm count: 4-1-0
Current EPac storm count: 3-2-1
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link


I can't...Good before and after pics
I tried..sorry
Don't know why though.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
How can the center produce any wind if there are no thunderstorms?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
landfall soon, a few days or less, id say less


Tonight
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I beginning to hope Debby doesn't become Earth's Red Spot.
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Quoting 7544:
cmon you guys that naked swirl is still moving south imo


Go Here and speed it up. Looks NE now, for sure not S, imo.
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Can someone post this photo, very telling of the amount of water TS Debby has dumped on Florida.
Link
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Quoting Tygor:


That's a bit of rain even before the storm came through.


Been a wet spring this year...
Not just in Pensacola/or Florida either..
The US in general..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol

DJMedik=Spin Doctor...
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259. Tygor
Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol


That's because most of the Texans are trying to find water and stay cool. It's pretty desert-like across most of the state.
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Quoting DJMedik91:
Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol


That's why the blog has gone so quiet. lol
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723


Storm Prediction Center
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
256. Tygor
Quoting pcola57:


Oh well..out of paint..
wasn't really motivated anyway..



That's a bit of rain even before the storm came through.
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255. 7544
cmon you guys that naked swirl is still moving south imo
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Is it just me or has the people who said Debby was going to Texas haven't posted much the past 2 days? Lol
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Quoting pcola57:
Got painting to do..
BBL


Oh well..out of paint..
wasn't really motivated anyway..



Tallahasse Climate Charts
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
So consensus, possible landfall Crystal River? That peeks my interest a lil bit. Hope it stays gentle.
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Deceitful Debby's dreary, drenching days dwindle.

CAUTION: Convection certainly could re-kindle.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.