Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

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Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters

One of Debbie's tornados (whgator3)
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
One of Debbie's tornados
TS Debbie on Bayshore (robb04047)
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.
TS Debbie on Bayshore

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Quoting AllStar17:
(click to enlarge)
looks more and more like its coming down towards Tampa area..finally got the huge branch off my roof, good thing i have a good saw, not too much damage, just a few tiles, i lucked out this time..storming here now, pouring rain and tons of wind
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Quoting Patrap:

GOES-13 Low Cloud Product image,LARGE



Been waiting for you Pat.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6820
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.
I hope it was a mild stroke, and you are still in one piece after all that.:)
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Quoting Hoff511:
All the best to you and your family.� Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
yes prayers for you and your family
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Quoting SrChiefFan1:


The Feds won't respond without a request from the Florida Governor. FEMA has boots on the ground already. This isn't the POTUS's call to send in FEMA/DHHS but up to Scott to request.

He wont.
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Quoting gator23:
Not to put him down, im not, but Levi did gloat when it was going west. he kept posting "more models shifting west" yet when they shifted east not a peep.
I feel ya on that one.
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Quoting waterskiman:

Thanks I was wondering how that worked for POTUS to 'decide' if we get help or not. Hopefully he won't tell us to pound sand like he did with the gov in Texas after their fires.


The Feds won't respond without a request from the Florida Governor. FEMA has boots on the ground already. This isn't the POTUS's call to send in FEMA/DHHS but up to Scott to request.
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Not to put him down, im not, but Levi did gloat when it was going west. he kept posting "more models shifting west" yet when they shifted east not a peep.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


All the best to you and your family. Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Drakeon came on here and stated his case for Florida. He was dead on.

Yes he was and he stuck his neck WAAAAAAAAYYYYYY out
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know about you guys but I think we need to keep an eye out on the tropical wave in the central atlantic could be our next system


quiet, wkc, whenever you say so, these storms develop :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
omg ya TA13 so sorry misread the earlier comment.....thanks GeorgiaStormz
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
. edit double post
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Drakeon and several others here nailed it along with the GFS. I remember one poster giving Drakeon less than a one percent chance of being right. Nailing this one is like hitting for the cycle, rare and extremely impressive.


I stated about 6 days ago or 2 days before the invest that the more logical solution would be for it to be in the eastern GOM with the GFS, infact I mentioned the system will intake dry air and get sheared and said it will be between 50mph-80mph at landfall.
It was a guesscast cause I don't make predictions more than 3 days out. I stuck to it cause I have the GFS model over the Euro with systems in the GOM and out to 60W and north of 20N. Outside of that..The Euro is the slightly better of the 2 good models. My landfall as a made the prediction ended up being Hernado-Levy County... at first I said it could be as early as Monday or Monday night (some say it did briefly touch land) but quickly said it will be Tues night into Weds.
Overall.. I don't think Debbie was a hard storm to figure out.. just peeps went with the wrong models.
Never Trust the CMC,Nogaps models.. if you go by that then you might as well use a farmers alnamac.They are correct 1-2 times a year so the odds are under 15% of the time. GFDL is a decent model.. but did horrible as it was all over the place on this.. still is. HRWF is hit or miss.. it's a good model under 20N I feel.

So in all, if there was a hard part, it was determining if enough moisture would return around her center. I still feel she will get some more around her eastern side tonight and Weds as she crosses florida.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.
I am so sorry hope that these is a better day to you.
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GOES-13 Low Cloud Product image,LARGE

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
GeorgiaStormz, I pray it was a minor stroke. These things always happen in threes so I hope your in the clear there. So sorry to hear your misfortune.


i think you meant TA13
comment 2000
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Uhh I still see Debbie isn't dead...I see the blog is in a depress mode now.Gonna get off and come back later.
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A whole page of yakking but not one Image.

Lordy, even the TV Met is cranky.
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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Sorry I haven't been posting. Just got back from the oasis on my camel...


I upgraded to the two hump model.. Better mileage between the oasis and work...
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
GeorgiaStormz, I pray it was a minor stroke. These things always happen in threes so I hope your in the clear there. So sorry to hear your misfortune.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
(click to enlarge)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
I don't know about you guys but I think we need to keep an eye out on the tropical wave in the central atlantic could be our next system
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


Good grief man...nobody deserves that in 24hrs.
Well wishes and good vibes!
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No low forming off the east coast of Florida, storm forming in Atlantic will be Debby. All the energy from Debby that was ejected NE will just continue as a blobbed mess, but not form. That's the prediction at least. I think the GFS may be right here too. Debby's never catching up to the energy she ejected NE. That energy I believe has a chance at development. Debby will still restrengthen when she finally gets to the Atlantic but the blob to the NE of her will be it's own entity by then in my opinion. The blob is hugging the east coast and looks like it has no intention of heading westward quickly so an invest on this blob would be very cool to get. There's no low associated with the blob NE of Debby yet is there?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


Oh gosh I am so sorry and OMG you're right what a horrible night. I hope your Mom recovers quicky and you and your Grandpa are okay, too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.

:O oh wow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


You know with a post like that we are all looking for updates:

Are you doing OK?
Is Mom alright?
How bad was the accident? Any injuries?

My thoughts and prayers and with you and yours.
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Quoting Tygor:


That's because most of the Texans are trying to find water and stay cool. It's pretty desert-like across most of the state.


Obviously you've never been to Texas...
Only the extreme west area of the state is classified as desert.
And we do have air conditioning and running water!
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Debby definitely didn't do Dallas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.
Sorry to hear that. Best wishes for you and your family.
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Quoting ncstorm:


So the HPC is writing discussions filled with semantics?..the HPC?? because you do know that what you quoted is what they wrote..sorry but I will take the HPC discussion over an insensitive blogger anyday..


Whatev...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


Prayers sent your way and to your family!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting Chucktown:


The hot weather is going to happen regardless of what happens with Debby after it gets into the Atlantic. The Omega block that has kept most of the southeast with below normal temps for the past 3-4 weeks is finally going to break down to allow that large ridge to finally move east. It has nothing to do with Debby. Oh sorry, maybe the heat index will be 110 vs. 105 if Debby does intensify some and creates a bit more subsidence, bottom line its still hot. Is a 5 degree difference when its that hot matter. Pulleeze, stop with the semantics.


So the HPC is writing discussions filled with semantics?..the HPC?? because you do know that what you quoted is what they wrote..sorry but I will take the HPC discussion over an insensitive blogger anyday..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minOr wreck with my grandpa, and I was almOst struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


oh wow, is your mom ok?
and you and your grandpa?
and what happened with the lightning?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minOr wreck with my grandpa, and I was almOst struck by lightning. At 3 AM.


i AM SENDING PRAYERS YOUR WAY
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is all this tropical mayhem getting to you

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.
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So, did the GFS pan out? By that, I mean, is there a new low off the SE coast from all of the convection blown off of Debby? That's a pretty amazing feat of computer wizardry if the GFS was able to forecast the shear stripping the convection off of Debby and spinning it up in the Atlantic! Also, does anyone remember if the GFS had Debby in nearly stationary in the Gulf on it's run 6 or 7 days ago? Thanks.
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308. 7544
Quoting hurricanejunky:
We got a 31 mph and 30 mph gust this morning without any accompanying rain. Sustained winds still in double digits. We were at 1003.6 mb early this AM but now pressure is at 1004.7 mb and gradually increasing.
Debby sure is packing a punch for a minimal TS...


yeap it would be cool if we can add our location somewhere on this blog so we all know where here is and all theses , we got, and im ,by me , in myarea ect ect ect lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Hey guys. Had a horrible night.


is all this tropical mayhem getting to you?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting ncstorm:


I think people who dont have AC care..you might try reading the HPC discussions because yesterday they were talking about temperatures reaching around 110 if Debby is stronger..I dont call that sensible and I lived in the SOUTH all my life..



The hot weather is going to happen regardless of what happens with Debby after it gets into the Atlantic. The Omega block that has kept most of the southeast with below normal temps for the past 3-4 weeks is finally going to break down to allow that large ridge to finally move east. It has nothing to do with Debby. Oh sorry, maybe the heat index will be 110 vs. 105 if Debby does intensify some and creates a bit more subsidence, bottom line its still hot. Is a 5 degree difference when its that hot matter. Pulleeze, stop with the semantics.
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Next band coming onshore is packing a little punch but wow these are thin bands Debby is sending into Florida now.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Let's hope they get power back on before the heat wave. Never lost power here in Jax, but my heart goes out to those west of me without power. I can't even sleep without the A/C on on normal nights. :(
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We got a 31 mph and 30 mph gust this morning without any accompanying rain. Sustained winds still in double digits. We were at 1003.6 mb early this AM but now pressure is at 1004.7 mb and gradually increasing.
Debby sure is packing a punch for a minimal TS...
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Drakeon and several others here nailed it along with the GFS. I remember one poster giving Drakeon less than a one percent chance of being right. Nailing this one is like hitting for the cycle, rare and extremely impressive.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Doksuri Long Floater
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6820
For West Palm Beach...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.