Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Debby Pounding West Coast1 (andrey)
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire (apphotos)
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)
High Park Fire

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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Debby has put on a burst of thunderstorms.
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Quoting rxse7en:
I was just saying that you can see that there's no COC over land under that convection, sorry.


Look at the velocities that Pat just posted. You can see where the center is on it...notice the curved nature of the velocities that came onshore just SE of Apalachicola.
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33W Longitude
Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Not really. You can't even see a definable center on radar.
I was just saying that you can see that there's no COC over land under that convection, sorry.
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Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Is anyone getting bored of Debby being stalled?

Has any one also noticed that the ECMWF model seems to be forecast that Debby will become a strong Cat. 1 or maybe even a 2?
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Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Central planners? Good grief .............

Where do Accuweather and The Weather Channel get the vast majority of their information?

Why did the private market not provide radar, satellites, the Internet, space travel or any number of things before the big, bad government came along to do it?

Yes, Mises was an idiot as are his teabagger followers. And no, this isn't the place for it.


Yes central planners. What else do you calm them?

I know where AccuWeather and TWC get there information. Why would they launch their own satellites when they can have the government steal money (yes friends, taxation is theft) and do it for them.

I just don't see why we need a central authority (is that better?) to do R&D. If there is a need, the market will provide. It is not like humans are a bunch of clueless idiots. The same great minds at the NWS would do just as well, if not better, at a private agency without constant government oversight. There is a HUGE need for weather forecasting. Just like there is a need for food, but we don't have the government running grocery stores or farms.
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I think I am over Debby. She needs to do something now. Strengthen, die, or move.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting MississippiWx:
Debby looks to have reformed her center under the convection over the Panhandle. If that's the case, official landfall might have occurred.



Agee. If the center is not on shore, it is very close.
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At the 2pm update, you can see that Debbie was north of her forecast points. That movement looks to have continued since then and sped up likely due to her trying to tuck underneath the convection.

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MississippiWx , I wish it was over land now. That would probably stop her from strengthening. Looks like that ULL tore off her convection and mid level spin yesterday. It's like we're watching her reform from scratch again. If she starts wrapping mid-level we may have a problem, not that all of the convection she's got at low level isn't going to be a nightmare when she comes across Florida.
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Link

33w longitude
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Quoting yoboi:


is praxeolgy a crooked proctolgist?

The neologism praxeology (Gr. praxis (πράξις), action, and logos, talk, speech) is often credited to Louis Bourdeau, the French author of a classification of the sciences, which he published in his Théorie des sciences: Plan de Science intégrale in 1882:[2]

On account of their dual natures of specialty and generality, these functions should be the subject of a separate science. Some of its parts have been studied for a long time, because this kind of research, in which man could be the main subject, has always presented the greatest interest. Physiology, hygiene, medicine, psychology, animal history, human history, political economy, morality, etc. represent fragments of a science that we would like to establish, but as fragments scattered and uncoordinated have remained until now only parts of particular sciences. They should be joined together and made whole in order to highlight the order of the whole and its unity. Now you have a science, so far unnamed, which we propose to call Praxeology (from πραξις, action), or by referring to the influence of the environment, Mesology (from μεơος, environment).[3]
The term, however, was in use with differing interpretations as far back as 1608, by Clemens Timpler in his Philosophiae practicae systema methodicum.[4] In this work, Timpler, when examining ethics, goes on to say:

The general ethics falls into two parts: 1) Aretologie and 2) Praxiologie, i.e., of virtue and of their action.... This distinction between the moral actions of the virtues seems a novelty; but it's necessary, however, because the habit of virtue and the move to action do not coincide.

A Libertarian construct... Ron Paul is a great proponent...
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Quoting rxse7en:
You can see it better with radar that it's still offshore. RADAR


Not really. You can't even see a definable center on radar.
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I am in weather chat if you care to join me
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Can you guys see the eyewall, it is pretty big?
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Is debby moving w/nw?
the circulation seems to be coming apart abit in the last hour
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Quoting Patrap:
..ahem,

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DEBBY IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
I was close, I think I said 29N 85.5 W. Thanks.
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Not to take away from Florida but Virginia is catching it with severe storms



Power Outages..Red represents over 2500 customers
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Nice wind blowing in Jackson County,MS OUT OF THE NORTH,MAKES THE HOT TEMPS NOT AS BAD.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I can say with very little doubt that she has made landfall:



wwait how? TIA
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting MississippiWx:
Make yourself a loop here with high zoom on the center and try to tell me her center didn't go ashore:

Link
You can see it better with radar that it's still offshore. RADAR
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:
Here are some pictures of flooding from TS Debby in the Shore Acres area in Saint Petersburg, FL. In some places it was just over 2 feet deep. Waters have receded a little because low tide was around 2-3 hours ago, but they are expected to rise again with high tide around 6pm today.





Are you guys still unable to leave the house?
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965. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Cute, calling me a "teabagger" (which I am not). Nice ad hominem attack.

This is relevant to weather, since we are discussing whether or not the private sector could do a better job forecasting. I argue that the private sector can do a better job than an agency run by central planners. Anytime you go to wunderground.com or tune into The Weather Channel, you are getting weather forecasts from a private agency. Some here don't like The Weather Channel or accuweather.com. That is fine. It is the beauty of competition.

Anytime there is demand for something in a true free market, a private sector will fulfill it in some capacity. Hey, thats part of praxeology. Guess Mises wasn't that much of an idiot after all.

Just because we can do something, doesn't mean we should. This is where government screws up and misallocates resources. Look at the housing crisis.


is praxeolgy a crooked proctolgist?
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..ahem,

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DEBBY IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting mgreen91:
Check out wunderground billboard in Chicago



She's sniffing the air to see where Debbie is going to go...
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Quoting frankelrue:


Edit...wrong guy. Not poof. LOL>
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I think this is on its way to hurricane, we now have an eyewall!

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Quoting rxse7en:
OK. What's a Muscle Punch Smoothie?


awesomeness
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
<
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I can say with very little doubt that she has made landfall:


Looks like it did. Probably around Apalachicola, Florida.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a pretty horrible analogy. Without slavery, cotton would never have become the huge cash crop it was. It simply wasn't otherwise economically viable to grow, harvest, and process it on a massive scale in a pre-industrial society.

Now, without NASA, there'd be no Virgin Galactic. (Just as without the government to develop flight, there'd be no Virgin Airlines.) Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you a bill of goods.

To bring this back around to weather from whence it came: without a tax-supported government to provide research and deployment, there'd be no weather radar. Period. It was, after all, a military invention. It's ludicrous to imagine that the free market would have invested the billions (in today's dollars) necessary to develop it--and if they had, recouping that investment would mean selling it at a cost prohibitive to all but the most wealthy.

That whole von Mises free market libertarian voodoo economic thing is a hollow shell best looked at afar, for it simply doesn't stand up under scrutiny.


It would be cost prohibitive initially. Look at computers and plasma TVs. Those things were expensive 10 years ago, now almost everyone owns one.

We might not even be using radar if we privatized NOAA. Maybe the free market would find something more cost effective while also more efficient.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Might want to look at visible loops.
Looks like it's under the convection at 85.5W 29N. I could be wrong but I think the midlevel from that burst of convection over land is being pulled over the llc and obscuring the COC. Might mean that it's trying to build up the mid level now.
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Make yourself a loop here with high zoom on the center and try to tell me her center didn't go ashore:

Link
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Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
RAMSDIS Floater Viz Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Elon Musk has done a fine job actually launching, from a Govt Facility to Orbit with a New Rocket and Spacecraft, the First commercial Launch and docking to the ISS.



But rest assured, Virgin Galatic's Sub-orbital stunt with Nitrous oxide and rubber was neat, M & M's included in free fall, but they sure as heck aint been to orbit.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
I can say with very little doubt that she has made landfall:

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Care to explain why you think it's "not possible"?
just not possible
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Quoting Patrap:
I just had a Muscle Punch Smoothie,..go ahead, ask me anything.

OK. What's a Muscle Punch Smoothie?
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Has the "Flash Tracker" gone 'bye-bye'? It was such a great tool for watching hurricanes. The Wunder Map, which appears to be the replacement for it, is so cumbersome I find it almost useless.
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Quoting divingpyrate:


the better paper would be about the value or lack of social media and discussion boards where non qualified levels of expertise and opinion are unchecked.

It is truly amazing to watch this board when things get interesting. dont get me wrong now, it is very entertaining and in my opinion there is a value, just not what people might expect.


Case in point.
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Quoting rxse7en:
COC is still offshore. That's just a very large burst of convection that seems to be held up by the tail of that ULL and dry air to the west of the COC.


Might want to look at visible loops.
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Check out wunderground billboard in Chicago


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lol it is moving nw now.... go debby go!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.