Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Debby Pounding West Coast1 (andrey)
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire (apphotos)
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)
High Park Fire

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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11323
Click link. Click animate. Zoom out a three notches.

Wundermap Satellite. Pin=Apalachicola
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Yes central planners. What else do you calm them?

I know where AccuWeather and TWC get there information. Why would they launch their own satellites when they can have the government steal money (yes friends, taxation is theft) and do it for them.

I just don't see why we need a central authority (is that better?) to do R&D. If there is a need, the market will provide. It is not like humans are a bunch of clueless idiots. The same great minds at the NWS would do just as well, if not better, at a private agency without constant government oversight. There is a HUGE need for weather forecasting. Just like there is a need for food, but we don't have the government running grocery stores or farms.


Whatever .............

I come here to keep up with the weather and storms. This isn't the place.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Computers as we know them were developed by government dollars for government purposes. The same with the internet, also a government (DARPA) creation. Plasma TVs were invented at the University of Illinois, but the technology was supported during its early years by the US military--that is, the government.

It's a fallacy to believe that the free market working alone in a vacuum will raise the standard of living for all. Mankind languished for tens of thousands of years before government was invented. While there is certainly waste at every level, there's been far more good than bad to come from it.


Sure the government helped fund R&D for many technological advancements, many of which have improved the standard of living, but it misallocates resources. Instead of $$$ going to something that might have been a greater need for society, it went to something that had a lesser importance.
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1036. Patrap
Debby Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Out of NWS Tampa a short while ago:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING ARE OFFICIAL 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 2 PM OF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES THROUGH THE USGS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE COCORAHS AND OTHER SPOTTER REPORTS.

SITE ID CITY RAIN
BKV BROOKSVILLE 15.13
BTRF1 TARPON SPRINGS 14.28
MKYF1 LARGO 13.66
OLDF1 OLDSMAR 12.60
PNBF1 PINELLAS PARK 12.28
CCKF1 DUNEDIN 12.27
TRPF1 TARPON SPRNG SEWAGE 12.23
TMTF1 TAMPA DAM 12.21
RHPF1 SULPHUR SPRINGS 11.61
CRCF1 DUNEDIN 11.05
RERF1 RERDELL 10.94
SJOF1 PINELLAS PARK 10.71
PIE ST PETERSBURG 10.61
TPA TAMPA WSCMO AP 10.07
TBFF1 OLDSMAR 9.96
WIMF1 WIMAUMA 9.79
MORF1 MORRIS BRIDGE 9.78
RRCF1 PINELLAS PARK 9.49
ELRF1 TAMPA 9.49
SWNF1 SUWANNEE 9.45
SPG ST. PETERSBURG 9.24
LITF1 LITHIA 9.13
LWDF1 BRADENTON 8.97
MCF TAMPA/MACDILL AFB 8.59
DLYF1 TAMPA 7.64
DLNF1 TAMPA 7.50
NACF1 TAMPA 7.24
GIF WINTER HAVEN 7.04
FTMF1 FORT MEADE 6.54
PGD PUNTA GORDA 5.77
BARF1 BARTOW 5.77
MKCF1 MYAKKA RIVER STATE P 5.34
TBW RUSKIN 5.21
LWEF1 LAKE WALES 5.18
FMY FORT MYERS FAA/AP 4.99
NPRF1 NORTH PORT 4.89
SRQ SARASOTA/BRADENTON 4.70
FRUF1 LORRAINE 3.39
NPOF1 NORTH PORT 3.25

-------------------------

Meanwhile, Naples has officially received a whopping 2" or so since the event began a week ago.
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1034. Patrap



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


She was drifting NW but is now drifting SW again.


Looks to me like the center is getting pulled into the convection which has been one of the story lines of Debby.
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1032. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1031. RevInFL
Just had some major rain go through here in Titusville, FL. Got about a 1/2 inch in 10minutes.
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Quoting rxse7en:
I was just saying that you can see that there's no COC over land under that convection, sorry.
it almost seems to have either nudged the LLC south a little or reformed a little further south and is trying to wrap around on the last radar loops on post 982
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1029. yoboi
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

It was!!!!!


ya should do stand-up....ya def have funny jokes..
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Was up that way earlier today, and I hadn't noticed anything either. Thankfully. And all this rain is a good thing here on the Space Coast. Not so much for others...

I live on S Park Ave... about 2.5 mi from I-95/50... The storm that brought the spinner was about the same caliber as the current band... but it was a small cell that barreled NNE from Lone Cabbage...
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Looks as the the COC is trying to get under the CDOC! Looks to be getting close to land tho.
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It's pretty toasty in Arkansas this afternoon. A few examples:

Little Rock: 104
Fort Smith: 104
Arkadelphia: 104
Jacksonville: 106
Searcy: 106
Russellville: 107

It's not just Arkansas, either: Corpus Christi is at 102; many parts of eastern Kansas are again baking at over 100; and nearly every station in both Kansas and Oklahoma is in the triple digits. But fear not, for next week looks even more fun:

hot
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1024. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1022. Patrap
..That's no Moon.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Pat & everyone....
Just north of Destin, on the bay. Less than an inch of rain from Debby, we are getting some of the strongest wind guest we've had, about 30-35mph, my anemometer has seen better days.
The bay is up about 2, maybe 2 1/2 feet.
There's been some beach erosion, but all in all this part of the coast has not seen much action from Debby.
Sad to say that's not the case for much of the state.... she is still hammering some folks.
Some one put her in gear & stop the stall!


She was drifting NW but is now drifting SW again.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting yoboi:


someone said it was boudreaux's fault....

It was!!!!!
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1019. rxse7en
Quoting LostTomorrows:
What's happening to Debby reminds me of the song "Pinball Wizard" by The Who... she's just darting all over the place like she's being smacked around by various paddles in the big ol' pinball machine that is the GOM.

She's filled in now... for the first time ever, I wonder if the next step will be to try and build an eyewall.
We won't get fooled again...
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Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

Yeah... it was late like ~11:45PM... no real damage... no one hurt... thankfully... rain-wrapped, late night... ugly...


Was up that way earlier today, and I hadn't noticed anything either. Thankfully. And all this rain is a good thing here on the Space Coast. Not so much for others...
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Debby has a chance of reaching Hurricane Status as she drifts sw/s and eventually se and east.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


It would be cost prohibitive initially. Look at computers and plasma TVs. Those things were expensive 10 years ago, now almost everyone owns one.

We might not even be using radar if we privatized NOAA. Maybe the free market would find something more cost effective while also more efficient.
Computers as we know them were developed by government dollars for government purposes. The same with the internet, also a government (DARPA) creation. Plasma TVs were invented at the University of Illinois, but the technology was supported during its early years by the US military--that is, the government.

It's a fallacy to believe that the free market working alone in a vacuum will raise the standard of living for all. Mankind languished for tens of thousands of years before government was invented. While there is certainly waste at every level, there's been far more good than bad to come from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1015. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


That exec up at Bain with the Master Switch why of Course.

Dint' we jus cover dat a page back or so?


someone said it was boudreaux's fault....
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1014. Patrap
Be safe BF, shes a gonna be round a spell seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive the separation of energy that could lead to a second low is happening, it almost seems like the GFS had a crystal ball.

Do you think we can Ernesto from it?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
What's happening to Debby reminds me of the song "Pinball Wizard" by The Who... she's just darting all over the place like she's being smacked around by various paddles in the big ol' pinball machine that is the GOM.

She's filled in now... for the first time ever, I wonder if the next step will be to try and build an eyewall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Pat & everyone....
Just north of Destin, on the bay. Less than an inch of rain from Debby, we are getting some of the strongest wind guest we've had, about 30-35mph, my anemometer has seen better days.
The bay is up about 2, maybe 2 1/2 feet.
There's been some beach erosion, but all in all this part of the coast has not seen much action from Debby.
Sad to say that's not the case for much of the state.... she is still hammering some folks.
Some one put her in gear & stop the stall!
Quoting Patrap:
Seems the brainwashing continues at a accelerated rate.





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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 25June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 3mph(4.8km/h) to NNEast at 5.5mph(8.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 40knots(46mph)74km/h
MinimumPressure had increased from 994millibars to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
ECP PanamaCity :: A51 PortSaintJoe :: FA43 DogIsland :: 2J0 Wakulla :: KBKV Brooksville

The SWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
SSWesternmost dot on the longest(northernmost)line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The ECP-dumbbell is the endpoint of 25June6amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The KBKV-dumbbell is the endpoint of 25June12pmGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 25June6pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over DogIsland in ~10hours from now

Copy&paste mob, apf, pbi, ecp-30.202n85.854w, khrt-30.393n86.589w, 2j0-30.084n84.115w, fpy-29.98n83.809w, a51-29.673n85.206w, ecp-30.171n85.8w, kbkv-28.57n82.656w,fa43, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 27.0n87.3w-27.8n86.5w, 27.8n86.5w-28.3n85.9w, 28.3n85.9w-28.5n85.8w, 28.5n85.8w-28.6n85.8w, 28.6n85.8w-28.6n85.5w, 28.6n85.5w-29.0n85.2w, 28.6n85.5w-29.803n84.59w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
And the previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just about to in MI... saw there was a reported tornado up there at 50/I-95 last night.

Yeah... it was late like ~11:45PM... no real damage... no one hurt... thankfully... rain-wrapped, late night... ugly...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I could be very wrong, but I call it as I see it! Out for now.


I do not think Debby has made landfall yet because there has been no special statement from the NHC.
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I wonder what our Cape Verde season will be like this year?
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The circulation isn't falling apart but the clouds are finally starting to cover the circulation for the first time ever.
Link
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Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

Its blasting here in T-ville... thin but powerful... starting to remind me of Fay...


Just about to in MI... saw there was a reported tornado up there at 50/I-95 last night.
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I could be very wrong, but I call it as I see it! Out for now.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive the separation of energy that could lead to a second low is happening, it almost seems like the GFS had a crystal ball.



Was a small MCV by Ferdinand Beach and St Marys this morning. Lots of spinning in the area. CMC shows a low developing and shooting northeastward.
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1001. Patrap
Quoting fredric1979:
who keeps flipping the channel @ TWC master control between Mike Slidel and the San Francisco Giants baseball game thats at least the third time I have caught the interference.


That exec up at Bain with the Master Switch why of Course.

Dint' we jus cover dat a page back or so?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1000. Patrap
..an the parchment note they found tacked to a stone said dont come looking again..


I believe the next advisory discussion will explain the Meso Complex/MCS thing-a-ma-bob in depth, specially if Stewart writes it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
who keeps flipping the channel @ TWC master control between Mike Slidel and the San Francisco Giants baseball game thats at least the third time I have caught the interference.
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Quoting Patrap:
Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Pat, how does one read that loop? I don't know what the colors represent. That shows the COC pretty well just offshore though. Thanks.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Thanks Patrap... Shows center offshore, nearly due south of Apalachicola. Btw... Getting ready to get blasted by a strong squall over here on the Space Coast.

Its blasting here in T-ville... thin but powerful... starting to remind me of Fay...
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996. JLPR2
Impressive the separation of energy that could lead to a second low is happening, it almost seems like the GFS had a crystal ball.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation

Range 124 NMI



Thanks Patrap... Shows center offshore, nearly due south of Apalachicola. Btw... Getting ready to get blasted by a strong squall over here on the Space Coast.
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Wow! According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the contiguous United States is currently experiencing the second worst drought since records began in 1895! Just incredible.





Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 245
Seems the brainwashing continues at a accelerated rate.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
992. yoboi
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

The neologism praxeology (Gr. praxis (πράξις), action, and logos, talk, speech) is often credited to Louis Bourdeau, the French author of a classification of the sciences, which he published in his Théorie des sciences: Plan de Science intégrale in 1882:[2]

On account of their dual natures of specialty and generality, these functions should be the subject of a separate science. Some of its parts have been studied for a long time, because this kind of research, in which man could be the main subject, has always presented the greatest interest. Physiology, hygiene, medicine, psychology, animal history, human history, political economy, morality, etc. represent fragments of a science that we would like to establish, but as fragments scattered and uncoordinated have remained until now only parts of particular sciences. They should be joined together and made whole in order to highlight the order of the whole and its unity. Now you have a science, so far unnamed, which we propose to call Praxeology (from πραξις, action), or by referring to the influence of the environment, Mesology (from μεơος, environment).[3]
The term, however, was in use with differing interpretations as far back as 1608, by Clemens Timpler in his Philosophiae practicae systema methodicum.[4] In this work, Timpler, when examining ethics, goes on to say:

The general ethics falls into two parts: 1) Aretologie and 2) Praxiologie, i.e., of virtue and of their action.... This distinction between the moral actions of the virtues seems a novelty; but it's necessary, however, because the habit of virtue and the move to action do not coincide.

A Libertarian construct... Ron Paul is a great proponent...


i never knew louis boudreaux started that mess back then, ole thibodeaux was right about ole boudreaux, dat boudreaux tinks he's smart but ya'll he aint.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.