Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Debby Pounding West Coast1 (andrey)
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire (apphotos)
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)
High Park Fire

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29.3 N 85.1W
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I think Debby has seen her last dance in the GOM! Very good chance she will reappear in the Atlantic and assume her name again but when you look at at IR her tops are being blown away. There is a good chance she appear brifly in a few days.
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Water Vapor showing a clear surgence of added moisture coming from the South toward the LLC....this might get very interesting when that happens.
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Appears Thunderstorms are now at the northwest part of the center, and she is now drifting S yet again.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Debby has not made landfall yet. The National Hurricane Center has not issued any kind of statement saying that it has.
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1083. kwgirl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How are you? Friend.


Fine and you:)
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1082. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


The c word. *shudders* :P

The free market, i.e. what people need or want. I don't think we need a central authority to determine that. Weather forecasting is a HUGE need and want.


i am really trying to understand your thinking process; what is a central authority?? is that a person that is a boss and has to make the tough calls or do we not need a boss just all freelance people?? you confuse me.....
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Where is the ridge that will force Debby southward?
That ridge was squashed basically. Instead of being elongated E - W, it is elongated N - S. This basically means, that the trough has it.
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Hey y'all.........this is blog is moving too fast for me. Can't keep up.

I'll be in weatherchat if anyone wants to join me....
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Quoting flowrida:
HH have suspended all missions




no they have not
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Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


How are you? Friend.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting kwgirl:
I can't believe it! Naples has only gotten 2 inches. Nea, how is that possible! Ft. Myers was getting it. Tampa was getting it. Aren't you in the neighborhood of them?
Well, luckily for Naples, water runs down hill and so all that water up North may be flowing in your direction. LOL At least into the Glades.
I've been out of town since last week. I'll be home briefly on Wednesday, then I'm off again for a longer trip. But while away I've been watching things closely. All I can say is that for a long time yesterday, the radar showed storms developing just to the north of Collier County and streaming northward. It happens...

According to NWS, Naples is still looking at a 2.75" deficit for the month, and 5.29" since January 1. Oh, well...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:


Looks to me like the center is getting pulled into the convection which has been one of the story lines of Debby.


No I think the convection is getting pulled into Debby for the first time.
Link
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I don't think she's made landfall. I do think however, that the LLCC is trying to move under the deepest convection. I think it is just southwest of the Big Bend of FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


what? why?


The next mission departs at 6:45 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 26/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A DEBBY
C. 25/2245Z
D. 28.5N 86.2W
E. 25/2315Z TO 26/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13266
Even if Debby is on the coast, it will still meander around and could even move back offshore.
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Quoting yoboi:


where did it make landfall?



looks like the storm made lanfall well N of the NHC forcast track
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The radar loop from post #1032 certainly makes it seem like the center nearly brushed land, but has now jogged back SW a hair.
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Quoting flowrida:
HH have suspended all missions


what? why?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting flowrida:
You guys just wishcasters



where not wishcaster you the wishcaster
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1067. Rebeler
Quoting pcola57:


It's a sloppy storm and their not sure of where it might end up going..
Covering their rears :)


Thanks Pcola57.
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1066. kwgirl
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.
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1065. emguy
Quoting jrweatherman:


Let's see what the NHC says in a few minutes. Sure looks to me that the center is right on the coast.


I agree totally. It looks like we are in the process of a center relocation on the coast (just inland) between Apachicola and St. Marks as we speak. Right on the Wakulla/Franklin County Line.
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1063. pcola57
Quoting Rebeler:
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.


It's a sloppy storm and their not sure of where it might end up going..
Covering their rears :)
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1062. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall


where did it make landfall?
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Quoting Patrap:
..That's no Moon.





Thats a space station!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall
You guys just wishcasters
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Quoting yoboi:


who decides the greater need? sounds like communist.


The c word. *shudders* :P

The free market, i.e. what people need or want. I don't think we need a central authority to determine that. Weather forecasting is a HUGE need and want.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
west.winds.here.e.cen.fl.oh.dont.forget.monsoon
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Quoting Rebeler:
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.

To keep you coming back here to this blog...
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Quoting flowrida:
Please quit saying things that are not true



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall
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Where is the ridge that will force Debby southward?
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Quoting shawn26:
When will the HH be back in the storm?
HH have suspended all missions
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Quoting flowrida:
Please quit saying things that are not true


Let's see what the NHC says in a few minutes. Sure looks to me that the center is right on the coast.
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1051. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
Do you think we can Ernesto from it?


Usually I would say I doubt it, but with how this year is going I will say, who knows, lets watch it. What does seem to be the case right now is that its presence is hurting Debby since the strongest convergence is concentrated with it.
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1050. shawn26
When will the HH be back in the storm?
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1049. rxse7en
Quoting fredric1979:
it almost seems to have either nudged the LLC south a little or reformed a little further south and is trying to wrap around on the last radar loops on post 982
If it can start spinning and wrapping at midlevel we may have problems. It's also starting to fill in in the SE and S quadrants with some upper level stuff. If there's upwelling restricting her the convection just on shore may be compensating and keeping her alive. The upper level convection streaming NE from the Yucatan is also starting to get wrapped in which may indicate that Debby is developing a decent midlevel.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Deby still looks to be SSW of Port St. Joe. Hardly moving.

Convection starting to move over the center. Land friction and afternoon heating helping a bit. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight.
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When looking at the Tallahassee radar loop, in Base Velocity mode, it still indicates that the CoC is offshore south of Apalachicola. You will see echoes still moving north over the western Apalachee Bay and as well to the SE of Apalachicola over the GOMEX.
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1046. Rebeler
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.
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1045. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Sure the government helped fund R&D for many technological advancements, many of which have improved the standard of living, but it misallocates resources. Instead of $$$ going to something that might have been a greater need for society, it went to something that had a lesser importance.


who decides the greater need? sounds like communist.
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Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:
Might just be me, but I believe that Debby has made landfall.
Please quit saying things that are not true
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Any NWard movement is going to come to a halt real quick, the ridge is bringing down the hammer.

WV LOOP
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1042. kwgirl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Out of NWS Tampa a short while ago:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING ARE OFFICIAL 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 2 PM OF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES THROUGH THE USGS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE COCORAHS AND OTHER SPOTTER REPORTS.

SITE ID CITY RAIN
BKV BROOKSVILLE 15.13
BTRF1 TARPON SPRINGS 14.28
MKYF1 LARGO 13.66
OLDF1 OLDSMAR 12.60
PNBF1 PINELLAS PARK 12.28
CCKF1 DUNEDIN 12.27
TRPF1 TARPON SPRNG SEWAGE 12.23
TMTF1 TAMPA DAM 12.21
RHPF1 SULPHUR SPRINGS 11.61
CRCF1 DUNEDIN 11.05
RERF1 RERDELL 10.94
SJOF1 PINELLAS PARK 10.71
PIE ST PETERSBURG 10.61
TPA TAMPA WSCMO AP 10.07
TBFF1 OLDSMAR 9.96
WIMF1 WIMAUMA 9.79
MORF1 MORRIS BRIDGE 9.78
RRCF1 PINELLAS PARK 9.49
ELRF1 TAMPA 9.49
SWNF1 SUWANNEE 9.45
SPG ST. PETERSBURG 9.24
LITF1 LITHIA 9.13
LWDF1 BRADENTON 8.97
MCF TAMPA/MACDILL AFB 8.59
DLYF1 TAMPA 7.64
DLNF1 TAMPA 7.50
NACF1 TAMPA 7.24
GIF WINTER HAVEN 7.04
FTMF1 FORT MEADE 6.54
PGD PUNTA GORDA 5.77
BARF1 BARTOW 5.77
MKCF1 MYAKKA RIVER STATE P 5.34
TBW RUSKIN 5.21
LWEF1 LAKE WALES 5.18
FMY FORT MYERS FAA/AP 4.99
NPRF1 NORTH PORT 4.89
SRQ SARASOTA/BRADENTON 4.70
FRUF1 LORRAINE 3.39
NPOF1 NORTH PORT 3.25

-------------------------

Meanwhile, Naples has officially received a whopping 2" or so since the event began a week ago.
I can't believe it! Naples has only gotten 2 inches. Nea, how is that possible! Ft. Myers was getting it. Tampa was getting it. Aren't you in the neighborhood of them?
Well, luckily for Naples, water runs down hill and so all that water up North may be flowing in your direction. LOL At least into the Glades.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.