Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Debby Pounding West Coast1 (andrey)
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire (apphotos)
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)
High Park Fire

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Based on the ball of convection hovered over the big bend, and how it's expanding, I think the higher rainfall totals will need to be moved a tad west on this.
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If only it was over the center.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........


The economic system and human action is far too complex for mathematics, let alone forecasting. Until someone comes up with an equation that can account for the individual wants and desires of 7 billion people I might change my mind.
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1137. Grothar
There has to be tremendous amounts of rain falling in the same place for a long time. That yellow indicates very cold cloud tops.

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Debby would appear to now be drawing some of her strength from the Western Atlantic. This second plume of moisture is helping her a lot.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


sorry, should've used sarcasm flag...

Absolutely pouring all day!

looking at radar and Debby's slow-moving self....doesn't look to be getting better any time soon.


I was gonna say......... :)
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She has stopped moving N... Most likely due to the ridge.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1133. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15299
sun is shining here in bradenton. wind is around 25 mph with higher gusts. Under a tropical storm warning and a few squalls look to be coming ashore soon near the Tampa Bay Area.
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1130. Grothar
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There is a lot of heavy storms approaching South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico,they look very nasty!!!, I just wondering if they will reach South Florida or they will died before reaching land,the atmosphere today seems to be more conducive for the storm not to died,not much dry air on the East Coast of Florida like we had yesterday.
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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
No rain over there?



sorry, should've used sarcasm flag...

Absolutely pouring all day!

looking at radar and Debby's slow-moving self....doesn't look to be getting better any time soon.
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Wow. The tropical storm force winds are entirely in the TS Warning area.

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1125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


nice large daytime convective cell over panhandle of fla this should vanish with the setting sun
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I continue to wonder what will happen with Debby once she reemerges into the Atlantic. It appears as though the storm may be left behind by the trough and create more forecasting problems.
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1123. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Central authority is someone like Mayor Bloomberg who puts restrictions on how much soda I can drink. I'd rather people make their own choices, as long as those choices don't initiate force against someone else.

My thinking process comes from the non-aggression principle, and yes, we do use the internet.


every action causes a reaction. force is always initiated; are you saying we should all be zombies?? i am really trying to understand this and how your thinking could benefit weather forcasting, i am confused.
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Debbie is really blowing up.. And flooding the Eastern Panhandle...

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
No rain over there?

Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Lovely weather in Tallahassee, today. Just got off of work. How's everyone doing?
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Tallahassee (southwest) and Liberty County getting dumped on


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1118. rxse7en
That ridge and dry air is starting to shred her nw quadrant. SHREDDING
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Still raining cats and dogs in Tallahassee..


Careful over there. It doesn't show signs up letting up anytime soon either. WU radar estimations show over 15" have fallen south of Tall on the coast. 7.54" here since last night.
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Lovely weather in Tallahassee, today. Just got off of work. How's everyone doing?
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1114. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:


Thats right and very nice. I've never been to the GOM and I wonder if I (from Germany) ever will. I had no idea of the region and the people some years ago. But this has changed *dramatically* because of this blog (despite of the biggering at some times ;-) Everywhere someone quite familiar is living.



The variety and diversity of the cultures and population of the Gulf is remarkable. Hardly any two places are the sames. Beautful beaches, tremendous industries and fascinating people. You should try it sometime. (Wie geht's meine Freundin?)
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Still raining cats and dogs in Tallahassee..
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Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........


You might enjoy this.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112


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dont take your eye off debbie...she's in the gulf
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
1109. divdog
Quoting tea3781:
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 74 72 93 NE35G66 29.42R SQUALL VSB 1/2

Gusting to 66mph!!!!
Keep us posted!!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
"IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND THE GFS"
.
.
Now the NHC is showing some respect for the GFS.
I have a feeling we'll see similar comments in discussions to come this year..
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5:00PM ADVISORY
(click to enlarge)
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1105. tea3781
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 74 72 93 NE35G66 29.42R SQUALL VSB 1/2

Gusting to 66mph!!!!
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742 WPBHurricane05: ...Ludwig Von Mises and Murray Rothbard. Good stuff, especially the non-aggression

Yeah, so is "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need."
Darn near anything is good ifn ya don't hafta ground it in reality. The Lord of the Rings is better stuff, and far more realistic than anything put out by either the AustrianSchool or the ChicagoSchool.
But I don't live in fairyland.
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1103. kwgirl
Good night all. I hope Debby gets moving but I think Florida is in for some major flooding. I will try blowing North so the storm moves LOL :)
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Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:


Which is why you go to blogspot, blog there, meet real friends and are never interupted with 'New Blog' or politic talk comes over. I find blogspot to be a much better blogging environment then here. With the exception of Jeff Masters, who writes very good WEATHER blogs and responds when you send a message!

Good work Dr Masters!


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1101. ncstorm
the forecast has speeded up..they now got Debby back over open water on Thursday
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15299
Quoting TampaSpin:
Water Vapor showing a clear surgence of added moisture coming from the South toward the LLC....this might get very interesting when that happens.


Center will continue to drift.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
486
WTNT44 KNHC 252052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
LOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A
MEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB...
WITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE
STORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 29.3N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOCATION...29.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
LOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A
MEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB...
WITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE
STORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 29.3N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
1096. oakland
Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


I do the same thing and have made many online friends that way over the years. Oh, and yes, sometimes I think I need a life too. :)
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1095. barbamz
Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


Thats right and very nice. I've never been to the GOM and I wonder if I (from Germany) ever will. I had no idea of the region and the people some years ago. But this has changed *dramatically* because of this blog (despite of the biggering at some times ;-) Everywhere someone quite familiar is living.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like the storm made lanfall well N of the NHC forcast track

There is no landfall
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Quoting kwgirl:
Fine and you:)


Just got back from the Gym, wanted to go swimming but its just so humid outside here in South Florida.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Wow, it's been a while since we've had a storm like this, that hurricane season was just unbelievable! Even though Ike and Gustav were significant hurricanes, they don't compare to the terror and panic Ivan caused to the North-East Gulf Coast, I remember everyone was so alarmed because it was a category 5 entering the Gulf of Mexico. I remember I had just moved from the Florida Panhandle to Illinois just a couple of months before this struck and we were worried our house which we were renting out was going to be damaged.
img src="">
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29.3 N 85.1W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.