Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Debby Pounding West Coast1 (andrey)
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire (apphotos)
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)
High Park Fire

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Horrible, horrible, horrible story...

.REFERENCE TORNADO...VENUS TORNADO

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-120 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 1

START DATE: JUN 24 2012
START TIME: 1223 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 2 SSW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
START LAT/LON: 27.0400 / -81.3600

END DATE: JUN 24 2012
END TIME: 1229 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 2 NNW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
END_LAT/LON: 27.0900 / -82.3600

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE 32-YEAR-OLD VENUS MOTHER WHO DIED FROM
INJURIES AFTER A TORNADO FLUNG HER 200 FEET AWAY FROM HER
HOME WAS FOUND CRADLING HER 3-YEAR-OLD DAUGHTER IN HER ARMS.

SEE COMPLETE HERNANDO TODAY ARTICLE AT HTTP://BIT.LY/KXFQQV
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1190. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


fading with the setting sun
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1189. dewfree
they did a much better job when all they had was satellite
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1188. dewfree
decide it for yourself .dont wait on the GFS or any other model .make that decision and see how far you get without them all.satellite is a must though

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goods recon up
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


They initiated force against you, so you can use force to defend yourself. You would have private protection agencies and perhaps dispute resolution organizations. If you truly are curious about this, I recommend you read Rothbard's For a New Liberty and Society Without a State.


Also the supreme court has ruled on multiple occasions that the police are not obligated to help and defend you. They are obligated to keep peace and defend the power of the state.
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The GFS IS THE KING OF THE MODELS,,,,MORE THAN THAT THE FATHER OF THE MODELS,NOAA NHC HAS MADE IN 24 HOURS A GYRE OF 180 DEGREES AND THE GFS NEVER CHANGE,THE GFS WILL BE THE FIRST OPTION THE REST OF THE SEASON IN TERMS OF MODELS
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Here in Clay County, residents on Black Creek have been advised to be ready to evacuate. Pics on TV impressive.. Btw. clay county is WNWN of St.Augustine across the St. johns River
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Those intense thunderstorms firing over Florida are being generated by afternoon heating, hence why the Gulf of Mexico is completely bare. It appears as if Debby may truly flourish when she gets into the southwestern Atlantic, until then, she'll probably just maintain her intensity or weaken. Quite the headache this storm has been.
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The new GFS is coming out and it has Debby moving SW for a while...WOW
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1181. dewfree
eewa- eewrah Give us liberty or give us death !
remember the battle cry.

12 amendments and no more . never needed any more .


simper fi
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1180. dewfree
Give me liberty or death !

battle cry of America:






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Quoting yoboi:


so if someone voluntary beat ya up, would ya call the goverment police? or private police?


They initiated force against you, so you can use force to defend yourself. You would have private protection agencies and perhaps dispute resolution organizations. If you truly are curious about this, I recommend you read Rothbard's For a New Liberty and Society Without a State.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Yeah we're up to radar estimated 4.5 inch per hour rainfall rates now.

If this thing continues stalling or moving so slowly, we may see locally catastrophic flooding.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1177. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Do you own thing as long as you don't initiate force against someone. Voluntary contracts are fine.

Voluntaryism, or voluntarism, is the philosophy which holds that all forms of human association should be voluntary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntaryism


so if someone voluntary beat ya up, would ya call the goverment police? or private police?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I have mentioned this many times over the past few days in terms of the large numbers of trees/branches all over the Big Bend and Panhandle area. They are really heavy and soaked about now and any wind gusts could bring them down real easily.

Folks need to drive really carefully out there and make sure to park your cars or boats away from big limbs or trees in the overnight hours just in case the winds pick up.


Yeppers, and it's happening... Lost power twice down at Southwood complex at work today (although, not branch-related), and came home to blinking clocks. I have a feeling a few more flickers will happen tonight, particularly if the wind picks up any.
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1175. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Can I say it?

DAMN....wide spread 4 inch per hour rainfall rates near Tallahassee.

CoC may be coming ashore under the massive ball of convection that blew up.


In ohter news, Hammond, LA did destroy the old record high exactly as forecast...

102f vs 96f...


3:55 PM 102.2 °F 108.4 °F 68.0 °F 33% 29.68 in - North 8.1 mph - N/A Clear
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Careful over there. It doesn't show signs up letting up anytime soon either. WU radar estimations show over 15" have fallen south of Tall on the coast. 7.54" here since last night.


I have mentioned this many times over the past few days in terms of the large numbers of trees/branches all over the Big Bend and Panhandle area. They are really heavy and soaked about now and any wind gusts could bring them down real easily.

Folks need to drive really carefully out there and make sure to park your cars or boats away from big limbs or trees in the overnight hours just in case the winds pick up.
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Quoting Walshy:
41.19 inches of rain...

You would think that is a world record but the highest total for rain in a 96 hour period is 191.7 inches. Plus this map shows 120 hours correct? That is still an insane amount of rainfall.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting yoboi:


yeah but if it was not for the military/gov i would not be on the internet, keyword- voluntarily. what i am understanding ya think we should just not have any laws or rules too follow just everybody do there own thing???


Do you own thing as long as you don't initiate force against someone. Voluntary contracts are fine.

Voluntaryism, or voluntarism, is the philosophy which holds that all forms of human association should be voluntary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntaryism
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1170. tea3781
She continues to build convention
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 252121Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN VA WILL BE
PROGRESSING INTO ERN NC SHORTLY. A NEW WW APPEARS NECESSARY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE
SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..HURLBUT/MEAD.. 06/25/2012
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Aside from the isolated tornadoes in Florida, I think this is a fair assessment. Rain, flooding event here, though, for sure.


no doubt! all this stalling going on the entire southeast coast could basically be rid of drought, other than central/northern GA.
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Quoting Walshy:
41.19 inches of rain...



build it 40 cubits x 40 cubits...
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1-hour totals in the panhandle are starting to hit 4 inches. Storm totals in many areas based on radar are at least 15 inches.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1165. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:



The variety and diversity of the cultures and population of the Gulf is remarkable. Hardly any two places are the sames. Beautful beaches, tremendous industries and fascinating people. You should try it sometime. (Wie geht's meine Freundin?)


You're right, Grothar, and, maybe, I chose to visit you some time, so hang on, my dear, as old as you are or may be :-)
I have to prepare some of books for publishing in the moment, so few time, but yesterday I relaxed following the discussions on dear Debby. Better than to read a thriller. Weather in Germany is a bit boring in the moment. Nothing extreme, which is good of course. Especially: no drought. I love rain, but not so much as has been falling in Tampa yesterday.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:
debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.


Aside from the isolated tornadoes in Florida, I think this is a fair assessment. Rain, flooding event here, though, for sure.
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1163. Walshy
41.19 inches of rain...

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1162. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


No one is forcing you to be on this blog. You voluntarily (key word) came here. Taxes are an initiation of force since I have to pay them, and if I don't I'm hauled off to a cage.

Getting the government out of the way of weather forecasting (well, anything really) will encourage innovation in the field since there is a need and a want for weather forecasts. The free market best fulfills this need since central planning always leads to the misallocation of resources.


yeah but if it was not for the military/gov i would not be on the internet, keyword- voluntarily. what i am understanding ya think we should just not have any laws or rules too follow just everybody do there own thing???
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Hows the surge along that Big Bend of Florida?
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:
debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.


I agree 100% with that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If only it was over the center.

thankfully.not
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debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.
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1157. oakland
Quoting AllStar17:
I continue to wonder what will happen with Debby once she reemerges into the Atlantic. It appears as though the storm may be left behind by the trough and create more forecasting problems.


Depends on how ragged she is and how long she sits over the gulf stream.
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1156. dewfree
Perspective is in eye of the beholder to the degree 3/4 percent .

Depends on if you think the gadgets of electronic age are the real way of life or horses and arrows .I think most would be shoveling poo is why the electronic age is so attractive to the end result of the other !



that being said . i don't care where the storm really goes, so long as she makes 1 landfall at or near where i said Fri .verification would be nice . but hey where ever she goes ,it will be a slow ride !

deductive reasoning over tech terms and explanations of why Debby did this or that is way bigger thing .
At least they thought so during the eighteen hundreds,in a time of thinkers !Thanks to them, you are not shoveling poo !I believe it is because of them that you and I are watching Debby right now .
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Are any of you having problems with the Floater loop buttons on Debby not working by not lining up correctly....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/java -rgb-short.html
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wow check out that explosion of convection over the Tallahassee area. Wow Debby, your a very interesting one.
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Based on what I see on the Tallahassee NEXRAD Base Velocity loop, almost appears as if the center is offshore SE of Apalachicola, and based on the obs from APK, with a NE wind, that would explain the NE winds. Any thoughts?
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1152. tea3781
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 73 72 94 NE20G28 29.39F FOG

The air pressure is 29.39 in Apalachicola and falling..

thats 995.2 millibars.....
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It wasn't long ago that I went to libertarian and Ron Paul websites defending the existence of NOAA and other government agencies. It wasn't until I understood the non-aggression principle and read Rothbard in addition to other classical liberal economists/philosophers that I changed my opinion. I was once a hardcore left leaning Democrat too.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Hurricane1956:
There is a lot of heavy storms approaching South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico,they look very nasty!!!, I just wondering if they will reach South Florida or they will died before reaching land,the atmosphere today seems to be more conducive for the storm not to died,not much dry air on the East Coast of Florida like we had yesterday.
A LOT!! of moisture coming from the South West Gulf of Mexico,this should help Debby in the long run in my opinion!!.
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Interesting tidbit from the most recent discussion:
"AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC."
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1148. rxse7en
Jax Beach this morning.
PHOTO
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Quoting Grothar:
There has to be tremendous amounts of rain falling in the same place for a long time. That yellow indicates very cold cloud tops.



My heart goes out to whoever is under that
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Getting the government out of the way of weather forecasting (well, anything really) will encourage innovation in the field ... The free market best fulfills this need...central planning always leads to the misallocation of resources.
False, false, and false. Quite demonstrably so in all three cases.
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Don't be surprised if Debby fires up more convection that covers up the center tonight.
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seems she is about too run out of ocean
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Quoting StormHunter89:


The economic system and human action is far too complex for mathematics, let alone forecasting. Until someone comes up with an equation that can account for the individual wants and desires of 7 billion people I might change my mind.


Bingo!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112


Based on the ball of convection hovered over the big bend, and how it's expanding, I think the higher rainfall totals will need to be moved a tad west on this.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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