Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

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Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

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2004. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
2003. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
... Flash Flood Watch in effect through Tuesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions all of northwest
Florida... including the following areas... central Walton...
Gadsden... Holmes... inland Dixie... inland Taylor... inland
Walton... Jackson... Lafayette... Madison... coastal Dixie and
coastal Taylor... and south Walton counties.

* Through Tuesday morning

* rain bands from Tropical Storm Debby will produce very heavy
rainfall rates and could lead to flash flooding. Projected rain
totals through Tuesday night range from around 2 to 4 inches
near along and north of Interstate 10... to as much as 8 to 12
inches over parts of Gulf and Franklin counties.

* Flash flooding would be most likely in urban areas and cities
as well as flood prone locations and low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


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Looks like a new band is setting up near Bradenton.
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2000. LargoFl
. .........................just want to remind everyone....we here in tampa bay and even down to say sarasota..are in..the cone of uncertainty for landfall, keep up with your local warnings folks..stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1999. LargoFl
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
CHARLOTTE AND LEE. IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...CITRUS...DESOTO...
HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEV Y...
MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WATCH AREA WHICH WILL ADD TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WHICH HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FROM TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY.

* MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1998. LargoFl
Quoting Mamasteph:
..Lol..thanks Largo..rain starting here in palm coast already..
yes big squall line coming across for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1997. LargoFl
interesting..i think i read somewhere..one inch of rain..equals one foot of snow...if we were in say maine in winter..i would have snow covering my house..i mean buried lol..hmmm 15-16 feet of snow in one day..can you imagine that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
..Lol..thanks Largo..rain starting here in palm coast already..
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1995. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
Mississippi..declared a state of emergency just because Debby was "looking" at them..Florida being pummeled with rain and tornado's and not even a "tropical storm" E.O.C. meeting anywhere..something wrong with this pic...forcasters saying some places due to up to 12 inches of rain in places..where are the sandbags available for people..or shelters for the some in the "flood zones"..OHHH thats right..Debby was going to Texas,,so Gov'nor went off somewhere else..lol..when T.S. Fay came thru was an entirely diff. ballgame..they let people prepare..
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Quoting Mamasteph:
I always said Florida should have pvc pipes running outward like an irrigation system to all the 'dry" states..lol..like house gutters...ya'll come on down and set up some rain barrels in the back yard..lol


This and underground power/telephone lines for places that are hurricane and ice storm prone. ;D Also with the way the weather pattern is I'll check back in days. Stay safe guys. (back to lurk mode)
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Slightly off-topic, but I swear there appears to be a long-track EF-4 or 5 tornado moving through So. Saskatchewan... it started in the middle of nowwhere in northern Montana and has been sliding along for an hour now. :o

The base velocity radar reading....

Link


Jo
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Quoting LargoFl:
looking at the radar right now, i think we in pinellas, will see breaks, like we have right now in rainfall..it is still..real breezy here, winds up around the mid 30's with higher gusts, and probably will stay that way..with rainbands coming in..off and on..all day long


I suspect you are right. Thank you for the reply! After that last band a bit ago, it is nice and quiet here :)
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1990. LargoFl
Quoting trinigal:
Okay, so my weather page here says 80% chance of rain for the Tampa area. Yet, I see this system stalled just northwest of our doorstep. Any weather forecasters want to take a stab at what Tampa could expect today? Is there the slightest chance it will be as wet as yesterday or do you think there will be dry spells? Thanks!
looking at the radar right now, i think we in pinellas, will see breaks, like we have right now in rainfall..it is still..real breezy here, winds up around the mid 30's with higher gusts, and probably will stay that way..with rainbands coming in..off and on..all day long
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
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Okay, so my weather page here says 80% chance of rain for the Tampa area. Yet, I see this system stalled just northwest of our doorstep. Any weather forecasters want to take a stab at what Tampa could expect today? Is there the slightest chance it will be as wet as yesterday or do you think there will be dry spells? Thanks!
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Quoting Mamasteph:
I always said Florida should have pvc pipes running outward like an irrigation system to all the 'dry" states..lol..like house gutters...ya'll come on down and set up some rain barrels in the back yard..lol


Last year this time all you would have had in the barrels would have been dust......different story this year apparently!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL i will send that request to our beloved Gov..the one who never even spoke to his people who were going thru hell yesterday..im sure he will think that is a great idea lol
Look where he was when Beryl was flooding jax too..in the Bahama's attending a wedding...Obama came thru to Tampa and orlando the other day..did he scare him off?lol..Miss ol' Jeb and Craig Fugate during times like these....
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1985. LargoFl
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
243 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

FLC103-251245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.W.0005.120625T0643Z-120625T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
243 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1984. LargoFl
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I just worry about tornadoes. After seeing a tornado for the first time in my life yesterday near you actually I have a bee respect for them. BTW it was at the intersection of Walsingham and Hamlin.
you know i was following that on the web, im up off of east bay drive so that wasnt all that far from me,luckily no tornado came on my street but whew, all over pinellas they had them
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1983. LargoFl
Quoting Mamasteph:
I always said Florida should have pvc pipes running outward like an irrigation system to all the 'dry" states..lol..like house gutters...ya'll come on down and set up some rain barrels in the back tard..lol
LOL i will send that request to our beloved Gov..the one who never even spoke to his people who were going thru hell yesterday..im sure he will think that is a great idea lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
Quoting LargoFl:
I am wondering,when debby finally decides to come ashore in a few days, just how far south she will sink before she comes inland,,,how close she will be to Tampa bay area..we surely dont need another few days of what went on yesterday..whew boy..alot of guesses will come out today..but we will see when the time is right

I just worry about tornadoes. After seeing a tornado for the first time in my life yesterday actually near you I have a new respect for them. BTW it was at the intersection of Walsingham and Hamlin.
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1981. oakland
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
My goodness just looked at the 4/5am. Looks like you guys in FL are in for a major flood event. Debby might become the Allison for Florida at this rate if there is no change to the steering. Meanwhile ironically over here in Houston no rain and hot hot hot. Send some over will ya?


If I could, I would.
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Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
My goodness just looked at the 4/5am. Looks like you guys in FL are in for a major flood event. Debby might become the Allison for Florida at this rate if there is no change to the steering. Meanwhile ironically over here in Houston no rain and hot hot hot. Send some over will ya?
I always said Florida should have pvc pipes running outward like an irrigation system to all the 'dry" states..lol..like house gutters...ya'll come on down and set up some rain barrels in the back yard..lol
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1979. LargoFl
Tropical Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HIL LSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST
COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY
TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6N...LONGITUDE 85.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 170 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL. STORM MOTION WAS
STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT THIS TIME ARE
INLAND FLOODING AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDES. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
EVENT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.


FORECASTER PASCH

Source: Link
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1977. oakland
Quoting Katelynn:


I don't mean to pick on your post oakland - but I soooo wish that this blog had City/State under everyone's avatar. I think that would be a great addition here. I've been reading since Friday, and so many posts would say "I have 40mph Gusts here now", but I didn't know where 'here' was. And their profile didn't say where here was either.

I plus-ed anyone this weekend that said where they lived - it helped a lot to get a feel for where the weather was hitting.

Hope you keep your electric up Oakland, and all is well on the next band of rain!

Oops, I should've looked first - you're in Ellington! Hang in there Oakland :)


Yes, I'm in Ellenton, FL just north of Sarasota and south of Tampa.
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1976. LargoFl
I am wondering,when debby finally decides to come ashore in a few days, just how far south she will sink before she comes inland,,,how close she will be to Tampa bay area..we surely dont need another few days of what went on yesterday..whew boy..alot of guesses will come out today..but we will see when the time is right
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1975. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
My goodness just looked at the 4/5am. Looks like you guys in FL are in for a major flood event. Debby might become the Allison for Florida at this rate if there is no change to the steering. Meanwhile ironically over here in Houston no rain and hot hot hot. Send some over will ya?
lol would gladly do that..one thing is for sure..our drought is over!! and the fires down in the swampy areas in south florida are all flooded, so outside of any damage people have had to go thru..this was a good event,rainfall wise
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
Quoting LargoFl:
I have to tell you,although it was just a tropical storm..outside of having no hurricane force winds..we DID..go thru a hurricane yesterday, in my entire life i have never seen so much angry rain and wind and tornado's all over the place, was an angry day here,luckily my house is on high ground but so many had flooding yesterday, hopefully it wont be like that today, this was for sure..a historic Rain event here, quite possibily breaking all time rainfall totals for one day..we will see when they tally it up


Whatever this storm does and wherever it goes...I doubt any of us that have watched it closely will ever forget it!! I picked up between 5 and six inches of rain yesterday and have not had any significant rainfall since MN. Daughter in Panama City said a squall came through there a couple hours ago, but been basically quiet to the north of the storm tonight.
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Source: Link



Source: Link
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My goodness just looked at the 4/5am. Looks like you guys in FL are in for a major flood event. Debby might become the Allison for Florida at this rate if there is no change to the steering. Meanwhile ironically over here in Houston no rain and hot hot hot. Send some over will ya?
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1971. LargoFl
Quoting traumaboyy:


I am about 180 miles from COC in NW florida and we have had no rain for hours and no bad weather at all but you guys are definately getting slammed!!
I have to tell you,although it was just a tropical storm..outside of having no hurricane force winds..we DID..go thru a hurricane yesterday, in my entire life i have never seen so much angry rain and wind and tornado's all over the place, was an angry day here,luckily my house is on high ground but so many had flooding yesterday, hopefully it wont be like that today, this was for sure..a historic Rain event here, quite possibily breaking all time rainfall totals for one day..we will see when they tally it up
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
Good Morning all..rough here in Flager county..weather radio went off again just now.. NWS re-issuing tornado watch for central Florida until 2 pm this afternoon..brevard county had rotating storms around 11 pm but none here..just heavy bands of rain..getting ready for round 2 coming thru..
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It's looks as though Debby has been trying to pull the convection closer to her circulation... albeit very slowly.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like i slept thru this squall line, its going to wake up tampa tho....


I am about 180 miles from COC in NW florida and we have had no rain for hours and no bad weather at all but you guys are definately getting slammed!!
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1967. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1966. LargoFl
..looks like i slept thru this squall line, its going to wake up tampa tho....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
Quoting emguy:
...and I realy wish Wunderground had spell check...I type too fast...LOL


lol I just googled Voticity to see if there was a new weather term I was unaware of!
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1964. LargoFl
good Morning Folks!..real windy here right now but no rain at the moment,when i went to bed last night, bay news9 was estimating over 13 inches or more of rain fell yesterday with the possibility of 16 or more,whew,hardly stopped pouring rain the whole day long, will be interesting to see final totals when this event finishes, but they were pretty sure we were or are..breaking all time rainfall records for my area..and we might have a few more days of this to go..oh no lol..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46345
1963. emguy
...and I realy wish Wunderground had spell check...I type too fast...LOL
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1962. emguy
Quoting OUSHAWN:
Wow...I don't think Debby will be able to hold on for 4 or 5 more days...but I do find it very interesting that the models are starting to split...again...on what may happen with her if she does survive.


On the Gulf side...she will definately survive...no matter what the ow pressure designation could be (i.e. Hurricane, TS, TD, Etc)...but betond Florida...speculative. She will work out the dry air and probably refire. Particularly into the next day or two. Even if she didn't, her circulation (voticity) would survive for quite some time in the gulf since it is very broad yet very well established. This would take quite some time to wind down without thunderstorms under the current weather setup. She will survive the Gulf.
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Certainly an interesting storm. I can not recall a more baffling system. Starting to see a bit of lightening for the first time to the south.
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1960. OUSHAWN
Wow...I don't think Debby will be able to hold on for 4 or 5 more days...but I do find it very interesting that the models are starting to split...again...on what may happen with her if she does survive.
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Quoting oakland:
Unofficially, I've had 3 inches of rain since midnight.

At 3:45 AM TS Debby set off my house alarm with strong winds and sideways rain. There's a break in the action for now.


I don't mean to pick on your post oakland - but I soooo wish that this blog had City/State under everyone's avatar. I think that would be a great addition here. I've been reading since Friday, and so many posts would say "I have 40mph Gusts here now", but I didn't know where 'here' was. And their profile didn't say where here was either.

I plus-ed anyone this weekend that said where they lived - it helped a lot to get a feel for where the weather was hitting.

Hope you keep your electric up Oakland, and all is well on the next band of rain!

Oops, I should've looked first - you're in Ellington! Hang in there Oakland :)
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1958. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
15:00 PM JST June 25 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) is located at 11.7N 134.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 11.9N 134.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours and move west northwestward

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.5 after 24 hours
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Tampa sure got blasted today!! I have a friend who lives in Estero between Ft Myers and Naples,they had a close call with a Tornado,but only 2 inches of rain


hey, HHJoe, I'm in Ft Myers too (just before Toll Bridge to Sanibel Island). 2, maybe 3" all total thru the weekend sounds about right. Just a dreary dark few days, and light but steady drizzle here. Surprisingly, tonight is the breeziest it's been here. But like anywhere in FL, it can be totally different down the road a ways.

The strange thing though, power went out at 9pm tonight. The FPL substation blew the big fuse, and 5k homes were out in the area. Took an hour and a half to come back up.

That's the first time since H Charley that I've heard that dead calm silence. Was an eery and long 90 minute flashback to those 7 days without power!

It also reminded me that I'm not ready for Hurricane season and must get my candles and flashlights all gathered again before the next time. Been here so long, I tend to just roll my eyes every time (and come here for entertainment) - but tonight's little outage snapped me out of that fast, lol

thank gawd for the Ipad lighting my way this time!

Thanks everyone for your insight into these Storms. I'm always learning something! /back to lurking/
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1956. oakland
Unofficially, I've had 3 inches of rain since midnight.

At 3:45 AM TS Debby set off my house alarm with strong winds and sideways rain. There's a break in the action for now.
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Looks like I'll have about 8" of rain to report when I check my rain gauge at 7AM. It "only" holds 7", so hopefully no more downpours like what we just had.
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Quoting Walshy:
I guess that State of Emergency in Louisiana was a bit premature...
Yeah... just an early jump on martial law ;)
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