Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

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Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast trackā€”see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont worry, no ernesto


not that. they asked where it will go. Can we catch a break?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
GFS- bye Debby


stays well off carolina coast
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770

More severe weather it appears for the Florida Keys and south peninsular Florida. Severe weather continues many miles from Debbie's center of circulation.
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84 hours in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17325

LARGE Image,GOES-13 Low Cloud Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
Quoting spathy:


Can we hope for a squeezed pimple scenario?


Nooo.....Doesn't squeezing make them more stuck?
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Quoting spathy:


OMG Dont mention Agnes.
I lived up there then and I still have family and friends up there in the Mid-Atlantic now.
Brain overload with that scenario.

I live in the Mid-Atlantic too, Maryland to be specific, my mom got the newspaper today and she saw an article on Agnes and it showed that our town was flooded by it.
Hopefully we will never get another Agnes again.
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Quoting RMM34667:
I'm going to repost from old blog..

This is my back yard. This morning those bushes were at the edge of the lake. There is an incline going down to those bushes.

I hope your doing well and please stay safe.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19560
Quoting waterskiman:
Is anyone in Ponte Vedra Beach near Jaxs beach, just wondering if the weather is wicked yet.
I'm right over the ditch. Been raining since 1pm here--about .5" so far. No wind.
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Quoting weatherh98:


oh god


dont worry, no ernesto
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
Quoting Stormchaser121:
/
Wonder where Ernesto will go


Since I live just south of Tampa/St. Pete I think I'll concentrate on Debby for now and think about Ernesto when he actually appears.
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Quoting weatherlover94:


look at that Low coming off of Africa


at one point models showed a system out there

why not lets have a early cv season as well as cane season

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Quoting StAugustineWatcher:


In PVBeach at the Palm Valley Bridge. Just rain some wind. Nothing major, yet.

ty heaps :)

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Quoting weatherh98:


oh god

yup
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Quoting washingtonian115:
NCS I know that.Lol.It appears to develop.


not in the next image.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting spathy:


Can we hope for a squeezed pimple scenario?



I don't think so it's been steadily closing all day, I'm pretty sure it's slammed shut now..
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GFS says landfall Tuesday morning. Wide discrepancies as to when the center of circulation will actually come on shore.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
/
Wonder where Ernesto will go

there is no ernesto and the GFS doesn't show 1.
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I'm going to repost from old blog..

This is my back yard. This morning those bushes were at the edge of the lake. There is an incline going down to those bushes.

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Quoting ncstorm:


A low:(
NCS I know that.Lol.It appears to develop.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19560
Quoting Stormchaser121:
/
Wonder where Ernesto will go


oh god
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
LSU Low Cloud Product
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Or just a ticket for careless driving.
thats belcher road, a main road,underwater
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51585
Quoting washingtonian115:
In 60 hours..whats that in the central Atlantic?.

nothing.
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72 hours in

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17325
Quoting washingtonian115:
In 60 hours..whats that in the central Atlantic?.

tropical wave
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting LargoFl:
...this is right near me,just a few blocks away..This is whats coming north florida..time to prepare is now folks, huge amounts of rain with this storm ok


Or just a ticket for careless driving.
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Quoting ncstorm:
GFS is still calling for Ernesto..



Ejecting that energy to the SE Coast..
/
Wonder where Ernesto will go
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Quoting washingtonian115:
In 60 hours..whats that in the central Atlantic?.


A low:(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17325
Quoting ncstorm:
GFS is still calling for Ernesto..



Ejecting that energy to the SE Coast..

no it isn't.

48 hrs out and debby is the only player.
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Quoting ncstorm:
60 hours in..

In 60 hours..whats that in the central Atlantic?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19560
Quoting waterskiman:
Is anyone in Ponte Vedra Beach near Jaxs beach, just wondering if the weather is wicked yet.


In PVBeach at the Palm Valley Bridge. Just rain some wind. Nothing major, yet.
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Debbie says, "cough, cough, gag at the dry air intrusion form northwest"
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Quoting weatherh98:
50 comments in nine minuts

Psh, nothing compared to what we had during Irene.
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Thank you very much, Angela for the update.
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Are we sure that this is the path she is going to take. The path keeps changing. Trying to schedule an event midweek in New Orleans.
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Quoting ncstorm:
GFS is still calling for Ernesto..



Ejecting that energy to the SE Coast..


look at that Low coming off of Africa
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Quoting LargoFl:
...this is right near me,just a few blocks away..This is whats coming north florida..time to prepare is now folks, huge amounts of rain with this storm ok



Wow!!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17325
Quoting LargoFl:
...this is right near me,just a few blocks away..This is whats coming north florida..time to prepare is now folks, huge amounts of rain with this storm ok


........

#TWC
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Quoting spathy:

Ditto but it sure looks that way.
This is not good.
OMG Not good if this plays out!


Maybe it will cause Debby to pop out to the South.

That would be a new one for the books.
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Quoting LargoFl:
its been a real long time since i have seen so many tornado's in florida,radio says we are in a weather emergency,i know one thing,comes tomorrow the flooding reports are going to be huge


Hey Largo, do you have a weather radio and have you been getting any of these tornado warning? I gotten plenty of marine warnings but NO tornado warnings. My only warning have been from the internet and Baynews9.
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60 hours in..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17325
...this is right near me,just a few blocks away..This is whats coming north florida..time to prepare is now folks, huge amounts of rain with this storm ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51585
50 comments in nine minuts
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
Is anyone in Ponte Vedra Beach near Jaxs beach, just wondering if the weather is wicked yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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