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Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

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Quoting Tazmanian:



will have too keep a eye on that and see if it fourms in too some in

It's not going to develop since it's actually part of debby's bands.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL..for real!...You had this pegged for days and days.


Too bad nobody read my blog. It is still up. When I'm not doing comedy, I do a real good weather blog somtimes.
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Quoting LargoFl:
well thats it for me folks, been posting almost non stop since what..5:30 this morning geez..im a nervous wreck..time to stop and let the storm do what its gonna do..see you all tomorrow..stay safe ok and heed your local warnings


Get some chow, and Hit da rack soldier.

Taps is nigh.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137176
Quoting TexasHurricane:
7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 28.3°N 86.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

get ready for a change in direction,I think
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes..The most drastic in recent memory to me was Ike.


I don't recall Ike ever having a drastic change.
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Quoting Grothar:



No, I don't but I am shocked!! How you doing PP?


Playing "Bob The Builder" today, building a kitchen for a friend of mine. How about you?
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Quoting Grothar:
I hate it when the models are so far apart.



LOL...again whew thanks :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4166
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recon found 0mph winds well outside the center?
still up to 9 knots now but man

26 kts flight level
0 kts surface
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hey FL i trad you why not you guve CA the 23" of ran and i send you the heat
?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137176
well thats it for me folks, been posting almost non stop since what..5:30 this morning geez..im a nervous wreck..time to stop and let the storm do what its gonna do..see you all tomorrow..stay safe ok and heed your local warnings
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


After years of following tropical systems, I can't remember such a drastic change in a storm track within a 12-hour period.
Yes..The most drastic in recent memory to me was Ike.
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Quoting MississippiBoy:
Impressive blow up at Yucatan



will have too keep a eye on that and see if it fourms in too some in
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Watch this satellite loop (it takes a while to load and works best when sped up) and you can see the slight SW motion of the center. Keep in mind this is only a short term motion, and not necessarily indicative of a long term heading.


I Believe that it will continue a net movement NE
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dropsonde brought back a pressure of 991mb, but since winds at the surface were 9kts, they knocked an extra millibar off. Surprised she's still strengthening, albeit very slowly, despite her meager convective signature.


She's got Moxie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137176
638. 7544
Quoting MississippiBoy:
Impressive blow up at Yucatan


debbie part 2
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7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 28.3°N 86.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Quoting Drakoen:
Dropsonde in her got a pressure of 991mb. The surface to 850mb layer is more saturated than ever. Whether or not that will lead to something remains to be seen.
Glad to see you posting again. Blog looks different when the regulars do not post..:)
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Quoting Grothar:
I hate it when the models are so far apart.



After years of following tropical systems, I can't remember such a drastic change in a storm track within a 12-hour period.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12425
acually, now it seems to be filling in between the Peninsular storms and the Panhandle storms on the IR.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC083-250030-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0130.120624T2352Z-120625T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
752 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 752 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WEIRSDALE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LADY LAKE...AND MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WEIRSDALE...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF AND LAKE
WEIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2919 8206 2911 8180 2895 8187 2896 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 199DEG 13KT 2888 8203

$$

PETERSON
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Quoting Patrap:
990.00



Dropsonde brought back a pressure of 991mb, but since winds at the surface were 9kts, they knocked an extra millibar off. Surprised she's still strengthening, albeit very slowly, despite her meager convective signature.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Debby supposed to head a tad different than forecast. I don't know who it was that stuck with it. You happen to know?



No, I don't but I am shocked!! How you doing PP?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 23:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 28.3N 86.0W
Location: 131 miles (211 km) to the S (189) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (29.26 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0C (80.6F) 25.7C (78.3F) 20 (from the NNE) 9 knots (10 mph)
1000mb -79m (-259 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 611m (2,005 ft) 23.4C (74.1F) 22.9C (73.2F) 360 (from the N) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,350m (4,429 ft) 20.0C (68.0F) 19.5C (67.1F) 55 (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:32Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 28.26N 85.97W
Splash Time: 23:34Z


0.1S 0.2W

So WSW net movement since the previous center fix.


Moved a total of about 15 miles to the WSW from previous fix...
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Impressive blow up at Yucatan
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Quoting Grothar:
I hate it when the models are so far apart.




They look to be in more agreement tonight
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hurricane23: HC predicted a track toward Texas, by less than 12 hours...NHC did the right thing and completely moved the track forecast to a new location. Fortunately this is only a tropical storm and not a major hurricane with more significant implications to a sudden track shift.
366 TomTaylor: Yeah we are really lucky this is only a tropical storm.

Luck had nothing to do with it.
A major hurricane with the mass of Debby has a LOT more inertia built into it. And a major hurricane with the same amount of inertia as Debby would be easily influenced by the steering currents.
TropicalDepressions and TropicalStorms are known to occasionally duck under those steering currents -- making path prediction more difficult than for hurricanes -- as well as being less damaged by sheer, allowing survival past the margin-of-error inherent within longer-range forecast models.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137176
Quoting LargoFl:
im assuming its gusting but the way these tree's outside are swaying i dunno, rain is going sideways


I am just a few miles north of you in Clearwater and it has been gusts, not sustained winds. I can see the gusts on the creek out back.
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now imagine 4 more days of this {N Fl} That would be biblical. We will have to see....


Correction, that would be "epic"...
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...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING THE COASTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 28.3°N 86.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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622. CC45
For Debby's forecast tomorrow, TWC just put up a big question mark. LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:


Hey! how are you?


Doing good. Glad to see you back! Hope you are able to stick around for the season.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12425
TORNADO WARNING
FLC105-250015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0027.120624T2348Z-120625T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MEADE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT MEADE...HOMELAND.
ALTURAS.
LAKE WALES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...BARTOW.
BARTOW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...LAKE WALES.
WAHNETA.
CYPRESS GARDENS...WINTER HAVEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WESTERN FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM
EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2771 8160 2770 8179 2830 8202 2831 8165
2827 8165 2826 8156 2825 8154 2820 8152
2815 8152 2815 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 183DEG 32KT 2778 8170
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I hate it when the models are so far apart.

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Watch this satellite loop (it takes a while to load and works best when sped up) and you can see the slight SW motion of the center. Keep in mind this is only a short term motion, and not necessarily indicative of a long term heading.
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Quoting HyDrO420:
Pst Richey Fl.
winds 15
gusts 40 - 50
Light rain

We had a foot of water in the road an hour ago but it has gone down now . went for a ride and seen a few trees down but nothing major They saywe have 12" of rain still to come on top of the 10+ we have gotton today. My first post of the year .. Hi guys
Hi and yeah its been one bad day for sure..wind is actually howling outside my window right now
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616. 7544
huston we have a promblem oh i meant fla.looks at the big blob moving nne from the yucatan and cuba
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the winds might thats a big might go up to 65 or 70 at 11:00 pm
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Stewart's in the building hahaa.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST OF
APALACHICOLA DURING THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST AND ALSO ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

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Now, if the storm splits in two the GFS is going to be the top dog in my book.
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hmmm is some in trying too fourm S of Debby
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609. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 23:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 28.3N 86.0W
Location: 131 miles (211 km) to the S (189°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (29.26 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 25.7°C (78.3°F) 20° (from the NNE) 9 knots (10 mph)
1000mb -79m (-259 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 611m (2,005 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 360° (from the N) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,350m (4,429 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 55° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:32Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 28.26N 85.97W
Splash Time: 23:34Z
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The fire ants in my flooded yard formed ant rafts. None of those effers will die.


yeah, and folks get pissy if you try to light those floating ant blobs on fire, for some reason.

nobody ever lets me have any fun. :P
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.


SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 748 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 739 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137176
Pst Richey Fl.
winds 15
gusts 40 - 50
Light rain

We had a foot of water in the road an hour ago but it has gone down now . went for a ride and seen a few trees down but nothing major They saywe have 12" of rain still to come on top of the 10+ we have gotton today. My first post of the year .. Hi guys
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The fire ants in my flooded yard formed ant rafts. None of those effers will die.

Finally! An Ant-cast! I've been waiting for someone to post a bug update.
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Quoting Torgen:
I'm growing webbing between my toes east of Tampa, but no bad winds so far. Yard has been completely covered in water all day, and I'm the highest yard in the neighborhood (the water runs off my yard into the neighbors' yards.) Hopefully all the mole crickets and fire ants have drowned.
LOL! No, they will seek safe haven at the highest point, lmbo. I give you one guess which yard that will be...? You are gonna'have the bug buffet yard! bwahahaha

Apologies, off topic all.

Couldn't resist.
Member Since: August 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

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