Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

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Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest pass over the center moves it ENE around 12 miles (from the last center pass). Pressure has risen by about 1 millibar too.
Still seems to have a large LLC,Anyone measure it.Kinda hard to get a handle on movement when its like 6 miles this way or 12 miles this way.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



some one say dress




Couldn't resist. He knows we love him.
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Another squall line to come through tonight in SE FL. I think this is going to be the 4th one since yesterday.

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I hear cross-dressing is pretty popular up in da Carolinas.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


MY EYES! THEY BURN
Hey look, Dolly Parton.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, indeed I am. I was thinking something similar to Ike (and the blog goes silent), but it's June so what was I fricken' thinking?


What happened to Ike ??. Have not seen him on at all.
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Quoting presslord:
if the boy doesn't go into meteorology...it will be an epic waste of talent


If you're referring to Levi, I totally agree. He's already my go-to tropical weather guru.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



some one say dress




MY EYES! THEY BURN
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6761
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol, you couldn't bite on 5 more knots to achieve major status? Wow, you're such a conservative forecaster. :-)
LOL, indeed I am. I was thinking something similar to Ike (and the blog goes silent), but it's June so what was I fricken' thinking?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting midgulfmom:
Evening....this is gonna sound crazy but......can that blob coming off the Yucatan possibly separate off and become something on its own?
Nothing sounds crazy today...
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Any rain totals from this squall line which is producing some less than ideal conditions over south central Florida?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I said 95kts into southeast Texas. I deserve some crow. Lots of it actually.

It is all good, not sure why some of you are so upset at where you thought it would go. It is what it is. Not worth getting upset about.
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Quoting presslord:
Levi and Drak are impressive young men with bright futures...if ya wanna pick a fight with someone, pickmit with me...they deserve a lot of reaspect


Name the time and place press!! ;)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6761
Quoting presslord:
Levi and Drak are impressive young men with bright futures...if ya wanna pick a fight with someone, pickmit with me...they deserve a lot of reaspect


Yeah, cross-dresser.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1239. Levi32
The shortwave trough axis coming through Ohio right now is already passing up Debby's longitude, and the plains ridge is slowly building eastward behind it, so she will be taking her sweet time moving anywhere at all.

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Quoting TomTaylor:
991mb was the lowest pressure found on the last pass (although the NHC officially shaved off an extra millibar). On the current pass the lowest pressure was 992.4 millibars based off surface extrapolation. We'll have to wait for the dropsonde to get a better idea of pressure, but so far it looks as though pressures may have risen by a millibar.

Recon missed.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
This might be Fay Part 2.....

She wont budge.
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Quoting biloxibob:
i was a physics major.ended up going to medical school.
great!!
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Unless connection increases it doesn't matter if it makes landfall in Florida because all the severe weather is onshore already.
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Quoting presslord:
Levi and Drak are impressive young men with bright futures...if ya wanna pick a fight with someone, pickmit with me...they deserve a lot of reaspect


Just don't fight in the dress Press.
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Debby has done some weakening today.
1st and 2nd Recon-
Flight Level winds:
90 mph
Surface winds:
60 mph

NOW-
Flight level winds:
70 Mph
Surface winds:
50 mph

If she HAS weakened this evening, she'll feel less of the weakness and stick around in the gulf, instead of Heading off NE into Florida. What this means, is that we could see her reintensify after she's almost done stalling, and head more westerly under the influence of the High, and become a 65-70 mph storm.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I said 95kts into southeast Texas. I deserve some crow. Lots of it actually.

Don't worry. I said 90 knots into central Texas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33306
1231. Mucinex
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Guys.. This squall line looks dangerous...



That is dangerous. Thanks for heads up.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS suggests that the inland convection may strengthen overnight and that she might be able to filter out some of that continental dry air currently inhibit her convective development.

and up the tornado chances.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33306
Levi and Drak are impressive young men with bright futures...if ya wanna pick a fight with someone, pickmit with me...they deserve a lot of reaspect
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I said 95kts into southeast Texas. I deserve some crow. Lots of it actually.


Lol, you couldn't bite on 5 more knots to achieve major status? Wow, you're such a conservative forecaster. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Hurricanes101:
new center

28.3 85.8


Pretty much the same ? No?
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1225. Drakoen
GFS suggests that the inland convection may strengthen overnight and that she might be able to filter out some of that continental dry air currently inhibiting her convective development.
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Quoting cindyker:


Here's one for TECO, they are one of the power companies in the area.

http://www.tampaelectric.com/outagemap/
Thanks for the tip.

TepCo Total number of customers out of service: 18,032

Interestingly enough, Clearwater peninsula still has power...

Quoting oakland:


Here's the one for FPL:

http://fplmaps.com/
Thanks as well.

FPL reports 0.66% of their customers without power... not quite sure how many households that amounts to... :o)

Quoting jascott1967:
Levi's absence from the board today is very telling.
He's been on today.... where were u?
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1223. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 01:35Z
Date: June 25, 2012

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 21


01:38:00Z 27.683N 85.083W 843.0 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,465 meters
(~ 4,806 feet) 997.6 mb
(~ 29.46 inHg) - From 221° at 47 knots
(From the SW at ~ 54.0 mph) 17.0°C*
(~ 62.6°F*) 17.0°C*
(~ 62.6°F*) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 29.4 knots (~ 33.8 mph)
62.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 01:28:30Z (first observation), the observation was 147 miles (237 km) to the S (176°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

At 01:38:00Z (last observation), the observation was 161 miles (260 km) to the W (263°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
I said 95kts into southeast Texas. I deserve some crow. Lots of it actually.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Guys.. This squall line looks dangerous...




The storm north of okeechobee bears more concern imo
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Quoting GeauxGirl:
"Welcome, fellow Hattiesburg-er. We certainly need some rain here, but who knows. Did you get that nice storm that passed through earlier?"

Been so long I've forgotten how to quote folks...lol.. or my computer just sucks.

We were at Ross Barnett all weekend and drove through a pretty good little storm around Laurel...but very little rain at my house--which is in the sticks. I was sure "wishing" for a little tropical rain here. A two day soaker wouldn't hurt. It's so HOT!!


Look under the comment which you would like to quote where it says "quote". It's really that easy! :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Rain seems to be clearing in Tampa Bay area. Don't really see anything else heading our way for the moment. Although I must say it seems like the winds are picking up.

Do you think we might have a quieter night? I know it's not over. Just hoping for a break.
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TEXAS... eventually... very very eventually... after the next hurricane... or few...
24June6pmGMT's MinimumPressure was re-evaluated&altered from 993millibars to 992millibars
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 25June12amGMT:
Its vector had changed from NEast at 8.4mph(13.5km/h) to West at 1mph(1.7km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 50knots(80mph)93km/h
MinimumPressure had decreased from 992millibars to 990millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path... CRP is CorpusChristi,Texas
KRAS is PortAransas,Texas :: 2J0 is Wakulla,Florida :: FPY is Perry,Florida

The SWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The Easternmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The 2J0-dumbbell is the endpoint of 24June12pmGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The FPY-dumbbell is the endpoint of 24June6pmGMT's straightline projection connected to its second nearest airport
On 25June12amGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage near the southern tip of SanJoseIsland,Texas just north of PortAransas in ~27days2hours from now

Copy&paste crp, mob, apf, ecp-30.202n85.854w, khrt-30.393n86.589w, 2j0-30.084n84.115w,
fpy-29.98n83.809w, kras, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 27.0n87.3w-27.8n86.5w, 27.8n86.5w-28.3n85.9w, 28.3n85.9w-28.3n86.0w, 28.3n85.9w-27.853n97.041w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

See the previous mapping for comparison.
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Tornado Warning for Okeechobee County until 10:30pm
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Debbie looked like she was ingesting some dry air from the NW but that plume appears to be choking off. Filled up some gas cans and a propane tank so there's no way she's coming to PCB now.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Guys.. This squall line looks dangerous...




Also looks like another band is building offshore after the squall line.

Seems like we will see a flare up in the AM
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1214. MZT
I vote no improved reorganization tonight. The upper environment is poor, dry air abounds, close to land, and approaching shallower water. And this is June, after all.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
Yes that was sarcastic.
Debby, wind/pressure wise is fareing well, luckily that is not her main threat, the rain is, which is dimishing, although she has produced a suprising amount of Tornados.
Lol good that worried me for a second. I have a hard time with sarcasm over the net.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3873
Good night everyone... My thoughts for the night: NHC will break all possible laws of science and use 55mph as the 11PM intensity... Debby may try to blow up some convection as DMAX nears but won't change much... Models will come into better agreement on a landfall in the far west panhandle or AL/MS.
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1211. Patrap
RAMSDIS Debby Floater Viz to Night IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Quoting 19N81W:
Debby is done......still cant really get why she was named....but I am sure someone here will tell me shortly...how far reaching were the TS force winds?

She might even be retired...Some parts of Pinellas county have had close to a foot of rain already!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Dude,puleeeeezzeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't start!!!!!!!!!!!! Levi is a excellent forecaster,and still has a chance of being correct on this storm. Don't start any shite!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I agree. Levi has been more right than wrong on this blog. It's not over yet and even if he is proven to have been wrong the reasoning was solid at the time. Just ask the NHC . Levi laid out the same reasoning they did but several days before.

Crow will be served to everyone on this blog before the season is out, myself included.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They splashed a dropsonde with a pressure of 991 millibars earlier too. Not sure why it was lowered to 990 millibars, but any case, Debby has not weakened nor strengthened.
991mb was the lowest pressure found on the last pass (although the NHC officially shaved off an extra millibar). On the current pass the lowest pressure was 992.4 millibars based off surface extrapolation. We'll have to wait for the dropsonde to get a better idea of pressure, but so far it looks as though pressures may have risen by a millibar.
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"Welcome, fellow Hattiesburg-er. We certainly need some rain here, but who knows. Did you get that nice storm that passed through earlier?"

Been so long I've forgotten how to quote folks...lol.. or my computer just sucks.

We were at Ross Barnett all weekend and drove through a pretty good little storm around Laurel...but very little rain at my house--which is in the sticks. I was sure "wishing" for a little tropical rain here. A two day soaker wouldn't hurt. It's so HOT!!
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1205. palmpt
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Dude,puleeeeezzeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't start!!!!!!!!!!!! Levi is a excellent forecaster,and still has a chance of being correct on this storm. Don't start any shite!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Levi is the man for sure!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I really hope you are being sarcastic.
Yes that was sarcastic.
Debby, wind/pressure wise is fareing well, luckily that is not her main threat, the rain is, which is dimishing, although she has produced a suprising amount of Tornados.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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