Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

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Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast trackā€”see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Uh oh...A Drak/Levi debate coming. *runs for the popcorn*

*gets soda*
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Uh oh...A Drak/Levi debate coming. *runs for the popcorn*

LOL I'll get the Drinks! Anybody need to order? Or you just want me to surprise you?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1302. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, but the fact that it is already at Debby's longitude means it will be digging east of Debby's longitude tomorrow, resulting in extremely weak steering currents for the next couple of days.


Yes, until the mid-level cyclone closes off over the northeast and moves to the north and east pulling her in tandem.
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IMO, the westward jog's major significance is that it may have taken the circulation over an unworked area of ocean.

The steering is still not defined enough.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SOI tanking tonight to -9.5.

Link


A daily contribution of -41.5 might have helped. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:


Uh oh...A Drak/Levi debate coming. *runs for the popcorn*


I will sit this one out. We have an old saying in the Caribbean, " Cockroach don't belong in fowl fight "
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SOI tanking tonight to -9.5.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Yup, but the fact that it is already at Debby's longitude means it will be digging east of Debby's longitude, resulting in extremely weak steering currents for the next couple of days.


Uh oh...A Drak/Levi debate coming. *runs for the popcorn*
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting E46Pilot:


Man, we are getting more weather from this, than we do when a Cat 4 sits 150 miles off of our coast.


Yeah, this is a werid storm...
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Methurricanes:
What do I win?
A spot on multiple ignore lists.

I'm tolerant though. ;)
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Sorry everyone for the failed images. And precious blog space...
I'm leaving... Shun me!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1293. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
The shortwave that will be responsible for grabbing her is still up in the Great Lakes by Michigan. As it advects to the south and east that will help to reamplify the eastern seaboard trough, eroding the eastern extent of the plains ridge.


Yup, but the fact that it is already at Debby's longitude means it will be digging east of Debby's longitude tomorrow, resulting in extremely weak steering currents for the next couple of days.
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1292. emguy
Hmmm...I think it would be a good bet to be a little bit leery of what we're seeing with Debby this evening. It does look like the small pressure drop has abated, but may have not been a good sign going into the evening. In these type systems, there is often a lagged response in organization structure and strength following a pressure drop. Saying that, the timing may not be great considering there is a good moisture surge coming up out of the Southern Gulf (Yucatan area) and will probably get ingested into the system just in time for diurnal max. Point being...In Florida...definately keep your guard on Debby despite the fact that she does not look great on setellite. Personally, I dismiss any thoughts of weakening tonight.
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Quoting Surferdude:


Are you not the dude warning every1 about posting entries unrelated to tropical weather ?


Yup, thats him.

Anyway...

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Debby does seem to have shallowed out...



Despite the strong circulation centre, this response to dmin suggests nowhere near hurricane as yet.
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1289. skook


Denis Phillips Via Katie Half Stack Jacks Facebook

Winter Haven tornado, near legoland.
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1288. cg2916
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flas h-wv-long.html

Debby's trying to get rid of the dry air.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ike is alive and on FB


Great, thanks. Is he not returning here ?
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Quoting Methurricanes:

Dear god modify your post.
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I'd say 50mph at 11p.m.

000
URNT12 KNHC 250151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 25/01:21:20Z
B. 28 deg 19 min N
085 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1359 m
D. 40 kt
E. 306 deg 57 nm
F. 039 deg 54 kt
G. 307 deg 86 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF302 0304A DEBBY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 00:21:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 295 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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1284. Patrap
Someone bypassed the PREVIEW COMMENT box obviously.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130497
Looks like Debby's just beat feet to the east...... End of line
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...here goes Taz.

Nope. Methurricanes FTW.
What do I win?
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Quoting Drakoen:
The shortwave that will be responsible for grabbing her is still up in the Great Lakes by Michigan. As it advects to the south and east that will help to reamplify the eastern seaboard trough, eroding the eastern extent of the plains ridge.


Do you think that it will re intensify? The pressure remains at 990-992mb
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


At first it didn't appear it would affect the South Florida Metro Area, However it appears the line is building south.


Man, we are getting more weather from this, than we do when a Cat 4 sits 150 miles off of our coast.
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Quoting Surferdude:


Are you not the dude warning every1 about posting entries unrelated to tropical weather ?


as a matter of fact...that photo was VERY related to tropical weather
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1278. Patrap
Ike is alive and on FB
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130497
Quoting Drakoen:
The shortwave that will be responsible for grabbing her is still up in the Great Lakes by Michigan. As it advects to the south and east that will help to reamplify the eastern seaboard trough, eroding the eastern extent of the plains ridge.


More of the same that we saw last night when the Eastern flank of the plains ridge ceased its Eastward motion.
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Well methurricanes get the iggy.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:
For the love of all that is good, please no one quote that crud Dean just posted...

IM SO SORRY! The post failed
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Another "low confidence" forecast:

"there has been a significant change in the forecast track with this
advisory. The official forecast no longer brings Debby westward
along the northern Gulf of Mexico and instead keeps the cyclone
meandering over the northeastern Gulf for the next 3 to 4 days.
This forecast is a compromise between the consistent eastward
solution provided by the GFS for the past several days and the new
Twist of the ECMWF. The ECMWF model...which has been
forecasting Debby to move westward along the Gulf of Mexico... now
has the cyclone meandering for the next 3 days over the
northeastern Gulf. Since these two reliable models are in
marginally better agreement...I am a little more confident...but
not completely...that Debby is not going to turn westward over the
Gulf. However...new official track remains a low-confidence
forecast."

forecaster Avila

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
For the love of all that is good, please no one quote that crud Dean just posted...
...here goes Taz.

Nope. Methurricanes FTW.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



some one say dress




Are you not the dude warning every1 about posting entries unrelated to tropical weather ?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's a good question. He hasn't signed in since September of 2011. I really wonder what happened to him...


Someone on the blog must know him personally. I hope he is ok.
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For the love of all that is good, please no one quote that crud Dean just posted...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
damn dean, what did you do
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1267. Drakoen
The shortwave that will be responsible for grabbing her is still up in the Great Lakes by Michigan. As it advects to the south and east that will help to reamplify the eastern seaboard trough, eroding the eastern extent of the plains ridge.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Evening....this is gonna sound crazy but......can that blob coming off the Yucatan possibly separate off and become something on its own?
Nothing sounds crazy today...

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I thought it was stationary Drak?!?!?! YOU LIAR
Where is that double facepalm pic when u need it...
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Quoting presslord:
Damn I'm pretty!




but i had too re move it so i wound get a 24hr ban
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115518
Quoting Levi32:
The shortwave trough axis coming through Ohio right now is already passing up Debby's longitude, and the plains ridge is slowly building eastward behind it, so she will be taking her sweet time moving anywhere at all.

levi i know this is a difficult question for you to answer but if she misses the trough and the ridge builds in will she be forced west into texas?
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Quoting kmanislander:


What happened to Ike ??. Have not seen him on at all.
That's a good question. He hasn't signed in since September of 2011. I really wonder what happened to him...
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1262. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130497
Quoting E46Pilot:
Another squall line to come through tonight in SE FL. I think this is going to be the 4th one since yesterday.



At first it didn't appear it would affect the South Florida Metro Area, However it appears the line is building south.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Tazmanian:
sorry guys i this had to do that and am craking up right now


Ahhh. The good old days...
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Damn I'm pretty!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey look, Dolly Parton.
I find it strange that I have heard that 2 in one day.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
sorry guys i this had to do that and am craking up right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115518
1255. air360
Quoting MississippiWx:
I hear cross-dressing is pretty popular up in da Carolinas.


Negative that sir, negative that! :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest pass over the center moves it ENE around 12 miles (from the last center pass). Pressure has risen by about 1 millibar too.
Still seems to have a large LLC,Anyone measure it.Kinda hard to get a handle on movement when its like 6 miles this way or 12 miles this way.
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