Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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2436. 900MB
Okay, just woke up, but can someone confirm the activity of the past 12 or so hours. This is what I am getting, correct me if I am missing something:

- The track has gone from 4 days headed west to a Florida to East Coast track?

- intensity up a bit and wind field expanded?

- there is finally convection near the coc.

Did I miss anything else?
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2435. ncstorm
from Henry Margusity

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I still think Debby will make the connection with the trough and go over Florida. If it misses the connection, game on for LA to TX.
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2434. icmoore
.
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Quoting Grothar:


Those little blobs are common is these types of storms. Little impulses of energy get thrown off the main convection. They just have a lot of sever weather in them.
Right now its the severe weather thats worries me. And ty grothar :)
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
2432. gator23
Quoting beeleeva:
I dont understand,,,,with all the talk about Florida here,,NHC 5 day cone shows Debbie as a Hurricane off of Texas.....

Look at my post 2424
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, a lot of us were, even Kmansilander. But that is the blog. It may still move west after awhile, but if it's any consolation, I plussed your comments. :)


Thanks :D
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Autistic2:
St. Augustine rain fall last 24 hours in my rain guage. 0 not even a trace. We need some


Didn't you get flooded with Beryl?
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Is it really closer to the coast, or does the convection just make it seem that way?

It is hard to be nonbiased when looking at the images.

When is the turn to the west expected?
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I dont understand,,,,with all the talk about Florida here,,NHC 5 day cone shows Debbie as a Hurricane off of Texas.....
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Looks like Avila thinks Debby is ready to start her westward trek.

INIT 24/1200Z 27.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Can anyone find Seriousman1 for me? He cursed at me and said it was 100% going to Texas, not LA or Alabama, or Florida.

I need to give him a peice of my mind.
Brick, Don't take it personal, Lot's of immature posters here. It Just Doesn't Matter
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I just watched Bay news 9, there apparently was some severe weather damage in St. Petersburg this morning, they think it might be a weak tornado or possibly some strong winds brought down to the surface, I heard some local METs yesterday stressing we will get no winds out of this(not all of them), but we already are, and, apparently with sporadic damages now.
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2424. gator23
Quoting ncstorm:


I would have thought Florida would been in the cone?

NHC is waiting on consistency from run to run on the models. Look for a cone change at 11
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St. Augustine rain fall last 24 hours in my rain guage. 0 not even a trace. We need some
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2422. LargoFl
WTNT44 KNHC 241159
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1200Z 27.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33287
Both NHC and Wunderground sticking by their guns for the forecast track.

I have been west all along, but I must admit, this is giving me pause as it's a bit closer to the coast than I anticipated at this stage of the track.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
2420. Grothar
Quoting masonsnana:
That blob off shore SWF worries me


Those little blobs are common is these types of storms. Little impulses of energy get thrown off the main convection. They just have a lot of sever weather in them.
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2419. ncstorm
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Can anyone find Seriousman1 for me? He cursed at me and said it was 100% going to Texas, not LA or Alabama, or Florida.

I need to give him a peice of my mind.

Just report and ignore him. No need for fighting on the blog.
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WOW!!!!!!!!!
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According to the CFS, we might soon need paddle boats along most of the Florida peninsula this summer.

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2415. ncstorm

I would have thought Florida would been in the cone?

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Westward jogging

I think y'all deserve t storm warnings because thats what y'all are getting
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Excerpt from Hazardous Weather Statement for East Central Florida as of 6 a.m. today:
.WATERSPOUT...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. HER CURRENT POSITION WILL ALLOW THE OUTER RAINBANDS TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OVER THE LARGER LAKES. BOATERS SHOULD USE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK EVASIVE ACTION IF A WATERSPOUT IS SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING A WESTWARD MOTION BY MIDWEEK.

...That's their story and they're stickin to it...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

BRAGAW
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2412. Grothar
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Yesterday I was being hammered for believing the GFS solution, and today it appears to be verifying.

I was right. I am surprised that i was right.


Hey, a lot of us were, even Kmansilander. But that is the blog. It may still move west after awhile, but if it's any consolation, I plussed your comments. :)
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Can anyone find Seriousman1 for me? He cursed at me and said it was 100% going to Texas, not LA or Alabama, or Florida.

I need to give him a peice of my mind.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Debby is the only tropical storm in my memory, that I can't actually see on satellite pics. Where are you Debby? Are invisible tropical storms a sign of global warming?
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Very important to note: Special advisory with new warnings has been issued based on an increase in the wind field in the NE quadrant, no track change...

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7291
2407. Grothar
Quoting avthunder:
I am in Lighthouse Point. Storm has passed now, but it was very intense. Lots of lightning. Looks like more on the way from local 10 radar.


Well, there is another big one over us right now. Bigger than the one about an hour ago. It is pouring and very heavy lighting and thunder. It should be there is a few minutes.
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...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA GULF COAST...
7:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 27.5°N 87.0°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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2405. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ068-072-168-172-241215-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
745 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 741 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF BROWARD
COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
DANIA BEACH...
PORT EVERGLADES...
FORT LAUDERDALE...
WILTON MANORS...
OAKLAND PARK...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2601 8011 2600 8012 2600 8019 2648 8020
2650 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 176DEG 15KT 2604 8013

$$
GARCIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33287
pecial Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.


7:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 27.5°N 87.0°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Quoting Articuno:

2006 maybe?
Link


Yes 2006, we were celebrating my wife's 50th at Cedar Key when the balcony vibrated a couple of times in the morning. Found out later it was a quake in the GOM.
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7291
2401. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:


Warmed


Hey weather! I see you are up early too. I guess the shift was a little surprise for us. It could still move west, but that little impulse of energy some of us were talking about may have moved Debby a little further North.
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It coming!:)!:)!:)!:)
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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN


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Quoting Skyepony:


(27.8667N 86.4833W) is the center fix by recon a few moments ago.


ok I read the wrong numbers but the center fix is way NE of the NHC's 5am position.
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Yesterday I was being hammered for believing the GFS solution, and today it appears to be verifying.

I was right. I am surprised that i was right.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Morning everybody.

Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Please stop defending people who dont deserve it. Jesus. The NHC is the only place on Earth, apparently, where you are immune to being held accountable for your actions. If I mess up at work... someone tells me. If my kid messes up at school... someone tells me. I am not saying anything drastic should be done, but they should admit they made a mistake and issue watches and warnings. And it should have happened at 5AM. That is it.

If you are offended by this, I am sorry, ignore me, I guess. I feel like I am being pretty logical here....
Dude, get over it. The watches / warnings were not issued. The winds, even at 5 a.m. DID NOT REQUIRE their issuance. I do note that the appropriate flood watches and warnings HAVE been issued. I don't see why anybody needs to admit they made a mistake THEY DIDN'T MAKE.

No matter how logical you feel you are being, 1) you are just expressing an OPINION for which 2) you have not expressed any factual support and 3) you are, as an amateur, claiming to know / understand more than trained experts with access to the best equipment and technology.

Chill, dude...

No offense intended or taken.
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Hello floridians must be running the blog but I'm just gonna throw this out there.
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, the center may not come across, but we sure are getting all the weather.


That blob off shore SWF worries me
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
Quoting Grothar:


That was some storm, wasn't it. It is still black outside. I am in Coral Ridge Estates, are you nearby?
I am in Lighthouse Point. Storm has passed now, but it was very intense. Lots of lightning. Looks like more on the way from local 10 radar.
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2392. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33287
Quoting Grothar:
Well, the center may not come across, but we sure are getting all the weather.



If you connect the west Floridan border and the western convection, you'll be able to see a old-style car. (At least I see it)
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2390. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
yes the gfs was right all along


True and an old person like me never discounts history :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reporting live from siest key in swf,winds around 25 sustained,gusting to around 40mph,1.94" over the last 24hrs,imo TS warnings necassary from Venice,fl-central coastl LA to the water now,i'll post some pics,weather is getting nasty here and expecting it to slowly gconditions over the next 12hrs...
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2388. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WATERSPOUTS: ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLOODING: STREET FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN LOCALES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WHERE
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES CONCENTRATED.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH COULD OCCUR AT ANY LOCATION WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.

WAVES: SEAS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WELL
WEST OF NAPLES.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
GULF COAST BEACHES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST


We are getting hammered again right now.
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Quoting LargoFl:
hey Jed..mike sidell from weather channel is supposed to be on clearwater beach today..say HI for me lol


wow really? I'll be headed over there :)


will do man lol
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Florida Panhandle getting hammered
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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