Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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I can't believe the GFS is still holding onto the Fl. track.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11052
Hammond, LA Wunderground forecast

Tonight
73 °F
Partly Cloudy

Tomorrow
99 °F
Partly Cloudy

Tomorrow Night
79 °F
Clear

Monday
102 | 77 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tropical Storm Debby


Tuesday
99 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tropical Storm Debby

Wednesday
97 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tropical Storm Debby

Did you see that?

Monday
102 | 77 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tropical Storm Debby


The heat index is going to be off the scale if that verifies. It'll be like 100% humidity and 102 degrees.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Either the blog is frozen or everyone is still in the older blog?

Yeah, it (the blog) has gotten pretty slow over the last few minutes or so...
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Quoting hydrus:
Lmao..I did not have my glasses on and read your blog handle..A good laugh for little ole me..:)

it looks like cat$%!^
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22:02 Viz

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Unless my eyes are wrong, it seems to be moving almost east of north.
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Recon will be investigating Debby from 7p.m EDT to 2a.m EDT correct?
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Quoting ncstorm:


the cone of doom has changed even with epic storms..I wouldnt take that forecast as set in stone..models do and will change in time as they sometimes do..Florida I wouldnt let my guard down until the storm is well west of you..(somewhere in CA:)


The Cone almost always changes. The center of the cone today, will most likely not be the center of the cone in a couple days.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11052
Quoting charlottefl:
That's crazy, always driving by that place. It's a pretty large hospital, I'm sure that was chaos.
I know several people that work in that hospital. One family member just about runs the place. But nobody I know was working there today.
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Quoting TXCWC:


Ya, right or wrong,I agree. While they DO acknowledge the model disagreement in their discussion MOST PEOPLE WHO DO NOT FREQUENT WEATHER BLOGS AND READ THEIR DISCUSSION will only see the "official" track. On the other hand if the West track verifies they will be hailed as genius. With that said, I will give all the experts and years of experience there the benefit of the doubt with this one - until/unless shown otherwise.


the cone of doom has changed even with epic storms..I wouldnt take that forecast as set in stone..models do and will change in time as they sometimes do..Florida I wouldnt let my guard down until the storm is well west of you..(somewhere in CA:)
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Either the blog is frozen or everyone is still in the older blog?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11052
Quoting Thrawst:
No one should underestimate Debby right now... she could turn out to be quite a storm or hurricane in a few days.

I couldn't agree more.
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24 hours of Debby cyclonegenesis. File is 2MB.

There is 2 jumps sadly. :( Lost 2 hours somewhere as well..
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21:45 Images





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Time section analysis, humidity. Debby is definitely pushing way any dry air.
Tampa


and

Keywest


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No one should underestimate Debby right now... she could turn out to be quite a storm or hurricane in a few days.
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099
WFUS52 KMFL 232208
TORMFL
FLC021-051-232315-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0014.120623T2208Z-120623T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
608 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BIG CYPRESS
NATIONAL PRESERVE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY
OVERPASS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...
IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A
TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.



LAT...LON 2638 8127 2638 8088 2621 8088 2600 8094
2600 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 180DEG 28KT 2605 8103



BAXTER

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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167. TXCWC
Quoting lottotexas:
and what if GFS is correct? What does this do to credibility of NHC ?


Ya, right or wrong,I agree. While they DO acknowledge the model disagreement in their discussion MOST PEOPLE WHO DO NOT FREQUENT WEATHER BLOGS AND READ THEIR DISCUSSION will only see the "official" track. On the other hand if the West track verifies they will be hailed as genius. With that said, I will give all the experts and years of experience there the benefit of the doubt with this one - until/unless shown otherwise.
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Should be an interesting week,,,,,,boaters, a good idea to begin thinking about preparations in advance....Tie down, evacuate boats if necessary,,,,boat clubs on Galveston Bay already advising of preps,,,two big sailboat events this weekend,,
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Quoting allancalderini:
I was a out for a couple of minutes because it has start raining and thundering non stop. so Debby is a fatty and big system mmmm. if Debby stalls as some models are predicting or just the GFS then Debby will have problems with upwelling and it will be like Nate last year.anyways i am out I am afraid a lightning wil strike me.

Yeah, stay safe!
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Quoting Cat5hit:



Very Funny... Very Funny...
Lmao..I did not have my glasses on and read your blog handle..A good laugh for little ole me..:)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


She's large and big, gonna overpower the ridge in the plains, she will bump the ridge
The Ridge was already forecasted to back off late next week even without Debby.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
As someone who drives a gas guzzler, I hate this storm could affect the oil rigs in the GOM..Gas was just slowly coming down and now this..
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Quoting CypressJim08:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETG2gXY6rfU&f eature =youtube_gdata_player

This was the tornado i caught in Naples FL around 4pm this afternoon.


Move your finger next time! lol
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republic helicopter in hitchcock/santa fe will be very busy, they transport alot of the workers to and from the rigs
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Quoting CypressJim08:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETG2gXY6rfU&f eature =youtube_gdata_player

This was the tornado i caught in Naples FL around 4pm this afternoon.


Very cool catch, and shows us well that a Tropical Storm can and does affect those well removed from the Storms center, inland.


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958

EAST NAPLES

COLLIER FL

2614

8174

THERE WAS A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ALONG TAMIAMI TRAIL AND RATTLESNAKE HAMMOCK ROAD IN EAST NAPLES. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A DAMAGE PATH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSS (MFL)

One more for you.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
Imho, the final intensity will be determined on how fast the ULL gets out of the way and how fast convection develops on the western side of the storm.

If that happens tonight then we could see a hurricane tomorrow sometime. Although I feel that convection won't appear on the western side until tomorrow night.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That sounds like a really good forecast.I mean it's already a moderate T.S shear is suppose to drop and the Gulf is one degrees above normal.
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I was a out for a couple of minutes because it has start raining and thundering non stop. so Debby is a fatty and big system mmmm. if Debby stalls as some models are predicting or just the GFS then Debby will have problems with upwelling and it will be like Nate last year.anyways i am out I am afraid a lightning wil strike me.
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Quoting lottotexas:
and what if GFS is correct? What does this do to credibility of NHC ?


Im sure WU will let them know..
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oil Rig workers will be coming out like droves
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corpus to matagorda would be just about center track,
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETG2gXY6rfU&feature =youtube_gdata_player

This was the tornado i caught in Naples FL around 4pm this afternoon.
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Quoting tropicfreak:



Hmph, agreeing with Bastardi aren't ya?

Doesn't sound out of the realm of possibility though.
Rare occurence tbh.
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149. DFWjc
Quoting texascoastres:
for those of us that live near alvin, tx- gas is 3.03 at the citgo and 3.04 at murphy's and buckey's. fill up before the storm fully makes up its mind on where its going. preparations are never a bad thing


I paid $3.03 in Ft Worth yesterday...can't wait for it to drop back in the $2.50's
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm thinking 95kts/110mph at landfall in southern Texas.

That's my forecast. ;)
That sounds like a really good forecast.I mean it's already a moderate T.S shear is suppose to drop and the Gulf is one degrees above normal.
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Quoting TXCWC:
I will say this concerning the GFS and EURO: THIS WILL BE AN EPIC FAIL FOR 1 OF THEM - THAT MUCH IS CERTAIN. The NHC and the experts there obviously think it will be a GFS fail. As a certain blogger here says - "we shall see what happens" ;)
and what if GFS is correct? What does this do to credibility of NHC ?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm thinking 95kts/110mph at landfall in southern Texas.

That's my forecast. ;)



Hmph, agreeing with Bastardi aren't ya?

Doesn't sound out of the realm of possibility though.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm thinking 95kts/110mph at landfall in southern Texas.

That's my forecast. ;)


She's large and big, gonna overpower the ridge in the plains, she will bump the ridge
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Whats the site for this breed of sounding chart?



Edit nvm.Just found it.
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No real model consensus as of yet..CMCEuro..96 hour.The mighty NOGAPS brings it in south of Texas.
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I'm thinking 95kts/110mph at landfall in southern Texas.

That's my forecast. ;)
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GOES-13 GOM Low Cloud Product Loop
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Quoting Walshy:
Local Storm Report

06/23/2012 0415 PM
Naples, Collier County.
Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


*** 1 inj *** a possible tornado passed over north
Collier hospital in Naples. Damages consisted of downed
tree limbs and broken street lights on a parking garage.
One person was struck by one of the downed tree limbs and
was treated.


06/23/2012 0400 PM
Naples, Collier County.
Tornado, reported by law enforcement.


There was a possible tornado touchdown at the
intersection of penny Lane and Palm drive in Naples. Law
enforcement reported roof damage associated with this
possible tornado.


Was it Nea?
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Quoting TXCWC:
I will say this concerning the GFS and EURO: THIS WILL BE AN EPIC FAIL FOR 1 OF THEM - THAT MUCH IS CERTAIN. The NHC and the experts there obviously think it will be a GFS fail. As a certain blogger here says - "we shall see what happens" ;)
this is better than a good boxing match lol
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Quoting Levi32:
The circulation of Debby continues to become better-defined and is clearly strong enough to resist leaping northeast into the sheared convection the way the GFS has been insisting on for so long.



Looks like she is about to spin up might surprise some
as the environment is starting to cooperate and she should be entering the gulf eddie in a day or two with lower wind shear approaching and warmer waters
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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