Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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Though Debby isn't the best looking tropical cyclone, the ULL will move SW and conditions will get better. I do expect possibly quick strengthening once conditions get better and I do expect a category 1 hurricane at peak.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Florida Florida Florida go to Florida lol
Quoting Hurricane1956:
It's funny,I was looking at the Local News a while ago and chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli,was talking about Debby and he shows the current Hurricane Center track etc.,but I just notice in his comments that he was not 100% convince about the western track,he keep saying we should be keep watching the latest news,and if Debby move to the East Florida will have a much much greater impact from the Storm,so will see? still the latest GFS shows a Florida Storm,we should see who won the final battle of East and West.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
22:15 UTC
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting nola70119:
Half the Gulf is dry air......Debby is going to poof.

Not sure if this is a trollish remark or not. If not, you're incorrect.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
In her current state...



...Debby can't get any stronger than 60mph... Hurricanes don't have to be beautiful, but they need convection on all sides of the system, and Debby doesn't have that... If the convection can get wrapped around it can become a hurricane... If not it will be a bust, at least for intensity... Shear has to relax.


Monster storm in the making
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Warning

Statement as of 5:01 PM CDT on June 23, 2012

... Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 am CDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Warning... which is in effect until 7 am CDT Monday. The
coastal Flood Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Coastal flooding... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday

* timing... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday morning.
Highest water levels will occur near the time of high Tide.
Water levels will remain elevated into Monday.

* Impacts... in Hancock County water levels will peak at 2 to 3
feet above normal astronomical tide Sunday with locally higher
levels up to 4 feet possible in some locations. Flooding will
impact low lying areas around Bay St Louis and Waveland... including
but not limited to Shoreline Park and Bayside estates. Around
Lake Pontchartrain water levels will increase to near 2 feet
above normal astronomical tide beginning late
Sunday... increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical
tide by Monday. Flooding will affect low lying areas around Lake
Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. Some roadways near the lake
could become flooded. Minor flooding is possible in some
neighorhoods along the lakes.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for
rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Debby may go to FL
It's funny,I was looking at the Local News a while ago and chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli,was talking about Debby and he shows the current Hurricane Center track etc.,but I just notice in his comments that he was not 100% convince about the western track,he keep saying we should be keep watching the latest news,and if Debby move to the East Florida will have a much much greater impact from the Storm,so will see? still the latest GFS shows a Florida Storm,we should see who won the final battle of East and West.
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No why lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


why dont we start our own chat!!!!!
Tropics Chat
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
Looking long range, once again another GFS run is supporting Cape Verde development

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Half the Gulf is dry air......Debby is going to poof.
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Quoting ncstorm:
IF the GFS is right, we would be getting debby and ernesto and the F storm...consistently showing a NE turn and consistently showing a storm coming off Africa




until it actually HITS texas, im staying with the GFS, it has never budged off that east track
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Models are still all over the place.... Nothing is solid yet... I love this when the NHC has to sweat..... Make'em earn their money......

BTW.... Hello to everyone old veterans and newbies....

Hello to you too!
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Quoting entrelac:
Re: The NOAA Glufstreams
Sorry, I worded this wrong. Will the NOAA Gulfstreams be sampling the atmosphere so that the models can get a better handle on Debby?

I guess my more general question is more - When are the NOAA Gulfstreams used?
Really whenever there is a storm. I am not really sure about the requirements for a flight except it has to be in range.
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:)
Quoting Articuno:


It might include tornadoes, watch out bud.
But its good your going to get the rain.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
now...
48 hours of
Debby Wobble Watching
: )
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Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop

Boxes are active as well as ZOOM

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
In her current state...



...Debby can't get any stronger than 60mph... Hurricanes don't have to be beautiful, but they need convection on all sides of the system, and Debby doesn't have that... If the convection can get wrapped around it can become a hurricane... If not it will be a bust, at least for intensity... Shear has to relax.

It just developed give it some time to establish itself.
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Second recon plane has departed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Buhdog:
I am waiting for the fat lady to sing before i believe west.... of course i live in SWFL.

:) I would not mine a stall and 3 days of rain to fill us up!


and then you would need three days of helicopter spraying to deal with the influx of mosquitos
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Models are still all over the place.... Nothing is solid yet... I love this when the NHC has to sweat..... Make'em earn their money......

BTW.... Hello to everyone old veterans and newbies....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am waiting for the fat lady to sing before i believe west.... of course i live in SWFL.

:) I would not mine a stall and 3 days of rain to fill us up!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming to me!!!!!:)


It might include tornadoes, watch out bud.
But its good your going to get the rain.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
IVE TROPICS chat starts at 7pm. HUGE crowd expected. SKYPE with NWS and AccuWeather! The latest on Tropical Storm Debby. Just click on the link below. (PLEASE SHARE and LIKE)Link


why dont we start our own chat!!!!!
Tropics Chat
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 22:26Z
Date: June 23, 2012

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 41

22:28:30Z 26.533N 88.050W 842.9 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,512 meters
(~ 4,961 feet) - - From 42° at 20 knots
(From the NE at ~ 23.0 mph) 17.3°C*
(~ 63.1°F*) -* 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
104.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor


HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 22:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 302 miles (486 km) to the SSE (152°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 22:28:30Z (last observation), the observation was 268 miles (431 km) to the SSE (153°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
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Big Rain coming to me!!!!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
The center is reforming to the ene of the previous one.. With a brand new blow up of convection..... Tonight should be interesting [=
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here it is for anyone that wants the link to this mapper:


http://charthorizon.com/m/hm/map

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In her current state...



...Debby can't get any stronger than 60mph... Hurricanes don't have to be beautiful, but they need convection on all sides of the system, and Debby doesn't have that... If the convection can get wrapped around it can become a hurricane... If not it will be a bust, at least for intensity... Shear has to relax.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IVE TROPICS chat starts at 7pm. HUGE crowd expected. SKYPE with NWS and AccuWeather! The latest on Tropical Storm Debby. Just click on the link below. (PLEASE SHARE and LIKE)Link
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
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Was going to walk the Dog in the Park till I opened the front door and it saw that it was August.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Tornado warnings, flooding rains and gusty winds for the western half of florida regardless of where Debby is going

Western Florida will see more impacts from this storm than most of the northern gulf coast I believe


Downer! :-P

west, meaning western peninsula or panhandle?

I'm in Tallahassee
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IF the GFS is right, we would be getting debby and ernesto and the F storm...consistently showing a NE turn and consistently showing a storm coming off Africa




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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, this comment is extremely JFV-like.
With the exception that he'd be celebrating if that rainband came through. All my evening's this week have gotten ruined because of Debby.
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FROM THE SPC:

...SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION INVOF THE SWRN FL
COAST...WITH A BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWD OUT OF CUBA TOWARD/INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS. WITH LATEST KEY WEST VWP DATA SHOWING SOME
LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR...AND CORRESPONDING/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
A FEW OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WARRANTS INCLUSION OF A 2% TORNADO
PROBABILITY LINE THIS FORECAST.
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Back for a look, see that the sheer and dry air I have been noting for two days now continues unabated, and the high is strengthening over SE La.......I doubt it even rains here in NOLA. Cheers.
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18z gfs has the trough capture debby and then develops ernesto.

but if ernesto forms after the trough has debby, why does the trough elongate so much?

i thought it was feedback but the feedback dies and then debby elongates into the trough and then ernesto forms from feedback, so now i dont know what
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Quoting violet312s:


Move your finger next time! lol


I tried my hardest but I was having trouble believing what I was seeing. BTW Patrap, my link obviously didn't work all that well, thanks for the fix! What did I miss?

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Quoting whipster:
TX Coast: Tides are already about 2 ft higher than normal, water almost to the dune line, but yet gobs of people still there. This is WAY before any effect from Debby.


If Debby remains pretty large and attain hurricane status, then things could get pretty ugly.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Awww hell nahhh! -__________-

Lol, this comment is extremely JFV-like.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
246. hamla
Quoting cajunkid:
I bet it there is some serious water moving through the Rigolets...
its been moving thru mississippi sound for a week cant even go fishing out to half moon island this sucks
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Florida interests are pretty much gone after the cone came out. Just my guess why it slowed down.

I had a few buddies over to play cornhole, and had to take a break.

I wonder how much, if any, of the eastern side\blob of convection will affect the Panhandle, if at all.

Doesn't seem like it'll be too much... Yay! My girlfriend delivers papers...rain, snow, or worse. Less rain will make her happy.


Tornado warnings, flooding rains and gusty winds for the western half of florida regardless of where Debby is going

Western Florida will see more impacts from this storm than most of the northern gulf coast I believe
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
18z GFS (It refuses to give up)

Maybe the abundant moisture is interfering with it's track forecast.
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We need the rain in Florida.... Bring it on..... Debby can come too....
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TX Coast: Tides are already about 2 ft higher than normal, water almost to the dune line, but yet gobs of people still there. This is WAY before any effect from Debby.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Awww hell nahhh! -__________-
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Funny thing is the GFS was pretty much spot on last year...
notwrongyet
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Quoting Articuno:

it looks like cat$%!^

good its not just me
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Quoting GPTGUY:


Yeah but if tropical storm debby impacts the northshore of Louisiana like it says there..then it won't be partly cloudy it will be overcast with off and on rain so the temperature wouldn't be 102..it would be more like the upper 70's to low 80's...your not gonna see a 102 temp with 100% humidity!


Temp 77 humidity 100 feels like 102
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Funny thing is the GFS was pretty much spot on last year...
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18z GFS (It refuses to give up)
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7389

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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