Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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2586. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stop spreading false information.
Hey bud thats my OPINION. Im not a met any more than you are. Havent you been watching the NHC track and models shift to the right??? And expect them to do more so as the day continues. Debbie is already at 27.5N and crawling N. Im just not seeing a Texas landfall here. Sorry :(
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Quoting Drakoen:
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.





Indeed, we aren't that far away from 3 inches here already, the ground is looking rather water logged to say the least, the drain ditch behind me is to the brim.

I'm still a little worried about some tornadoes spinning up with those stronger cells headed toward the Tampa Bay area from the southwest, shear is pretty respectable over this area right now.


The GFS has done well with precip so far.

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2584. Drakoen
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey...........I am north of Tally about 20 miles off 319. You getting any rain near downtown Tallahassee?


Yes moderate rain. A heavier band of rain is just to our south moving northward.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Alright, Can anyone pinpoint the Center?



Looks about 200 miles by 200 wide lol
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How long will recon be investigating?
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Quoting PackManWx:
my in-laws still don't know what to do...

they are traveling down to orlando from NC on tuesday and have until 4PM monday to cancel their reservations..

they keep asking if the precip will be out of FL by tuesday night (either way)... and i just don't have a clear answer for them



By tomorrow afternoon they will know what the weather will be for Tuesday. Sucks when a vaca is involved though.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32856
2579. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
Good Morning. Debby has gotten much better organized overnight. I think they should have extended the warning farther eastward to include the big bend region.


Morning... I thought they would have a bit earlier today, but I guess they're waiting on more HH center fixes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.

I'm with you TA... Lots of Florida-casters on this morning... If 12z models stay east then I'll believe it.
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Well, out to paint the deck while it's only 80 degrees. Really hoping to get all the painting done before any rain hits Louisiana, but I doubt I'll get all of it done.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
Quoting Clearwater1:
WOW, Debby is doing exactly what the GFS predicted to this point, at least up till now, and maybe beyond. Who knows, the other west running models may do a 180 and Florida may see a storm after all, via the GFS scenario.
that would be nice. I would like the rain ( just the rain) and maybe a monday off :)
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Just to make it official:

AL, 04, 2012062412, , BEST, 0, 278N, 865W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 220, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,
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2574. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR
COASTAL TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS CENTERED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AS OF 8 AM EDT. A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A GREATER RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

FLZ118-127-250000-
/O.CON.KTAE.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120625T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-
832 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
OVERALL STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE
TIMES OF THESE HIGH TIDES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD
CAUSE OVERWASH ON COASTAL ROADWAYS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 98. WATER
MAY ALSO BEGIN TO SURROUND STRUCTURES IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT
ARE NOT RAISED ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&
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Quoting Articuno:
Could Debby clip LA and head west to TX?


Very likely now using NHC track and current location of the storm
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Drakoen:
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.




Hey...........I am north of Tally about 20 miles off 319. You getting any rain near downtown Tallahassee?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.


Hey, give the texans time to wake up and then the crow throwing can begin

@floridians texans war
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Jedkins01:
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
Just received those wind gusts here, the weather is pretty nasty outside my fruits trees in the backyard were just swaying around. Must've been a squall.
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2569. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a good note, the rain coverage for Florida has been excellent......Just what the Dr. ordered in terms of drought relief..
sure is, much needed rains for sure
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Quoting icmoore:


Sorry I just saw your post. I am in Madeira Beach about a block and ahalf away from the coast. It is a tiny Beach in between Treasure Island and Reddington Beach.


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Quoting BahaHurican:
Everybody does realize that the cone graphic only changes at 11 and 5, EDT, right? Even if NHC is proposing a track change @ 8 or 2, I can't recall ever seeing the GRAPHIC reflect that change at the time....

Actually, this may not be as far off / wacky as some may think. There have been coast rakers before.

If it did head over FL, the NW Bahamas would get another jolly 48 hours of heavy downpours....



I've only seen it one time. With Hurricane Charley. They did a 2PM adjustment to the track...
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2566. 10Speed
It's official. Now that south Sebring, FL has received some rain, no one in Florida (other than irrigation supervisors or aquatic farmers) is authorized to complain about the lack of precipitation. We don't want to hear it anymore.

Good morning everyone! Enjoy your coffee, bloody Mary's or whatever your choice of poison is. WX intrigue is a promise today!
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Quoting StormHype:
Video of Debby flooding siesta key south of Tampa:
Siesta Key Flooding
,localized street flooding,happens in that area anytime we get more than .50 in a hr,i live about 10blocks north right on beach road,ima go to the north end where peoples front yards are 30ft from the waterline on the beach,first areas to get coastal flooding,i worry if debby moves east,we get south winds and siesta gets flooded,doesnt take much 3-5ft above normal does it,anyways going down to the gulf i'll take some pics!
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Quoting scott39:
Texas take your cans of Tuna back to Walmart. Debbie is NOT going to visit you.

Stop spreading false information on the blog. You are no expert, and even if you were, the NHC is your only reliable hurricane source for official track and intensity, which happens to show it going for Texas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32856
Cantore is in Pensacola Beach.
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Could Debby clip LA and head west to TX?
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On a good note, the rain coverage for Florida has been excellent......Just what the Dr. ordered in terms of drought relief..
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lt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 234° at 54 knots (From the SW at ~ 62.1 mph)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Because with this image you can see how Florida is gonna get the coc.

SARCASM FLAG ON

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
2558. scott39
Texas take your cans of Tuna back to Walmart. Debbie is NOT going to visit you.
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2557. Drakoen
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.


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I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32856
2555. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
714 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
AND ALABAMA GULF COAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ASSUMPTION...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER TERREBONNE...LOWER
TERREBONNE...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES AND LOWER ST. BERNARD.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5N...LONGITUDE 87.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LA...OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF GULFPORT MS. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL BE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AND SHORES OF THE LAKES.

ON THE LOUISIANA COAST...ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING. COASTAL
AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS TO SHELL BEACH...GRAND ISLE...PORT
FOURCHON...AND LEEVILLE WILL BE IMPACTED.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...
OTHER IMPACTS ON THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS OVER 12 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TO MODERATE WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
FURTHER INLAND.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS AROUND 11 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-251215 -
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
714 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 65 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
80 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS
OF 12 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

$$
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Quoting Grothar:
The 06z GFS 48 hours out

looks about right . i alwayd liked the gfs :). ( they stick to their guns unlike most
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2553. GetReal
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Quoting gator23:

NHC is waiting on consistency from run to run on the models. Look for a cone change at 11
Everybody does realize that the cone graphic only changes at 11 and 5, EDT, right? Even if NHC is proposing a track change @ 8 or 2, I can't recall ever seeing the GRAPHIC reflect that change at the time....

Quoting TampaCat5:
It's going to hit Florida, than pull south a little and head west along the Gulf coast all the way to Texas. Everyone is right!! :)
Actually, this may not be as far off / wacky as some may think. There have been coast rakers before.

Quoting PackManWx:
Even if it did head to florida... much of the precipitation would be out of there by tuesday night since the precip is mainly on the EAST side of the storm...

correct?
If it did head over FL, the NW Bahamas would get another jolly 48 hours of heavy downpours....

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2551. icmoore
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Location? (So i can post your local radar)


Sorry I just saw your post. I am in Madeira Beach about a block and ahalf away from the coast. It is a tiny Beach in between Treasure Island and Reddington Beach.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
We must have just had a stronger band move in, had a really hard gust of wind that blew some branches down and a little downpour. I went to bed figuring on a rainy day with some light wind gusts and woke up to a Tropical Storm on the door step. Grrrrr
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2549. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
yeah pouring rain and windyyyyy
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Organization increasing.

Reorganization and some light to moderate convection starting to wrap left side of the CoC.




Don't be deceived by the slight decrease in convection on the far east side. Throughout the day, we should begin to see stacking and a CDO forming as the ULL continues to weaken and pull away to the SW.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
NHC
Coin toss. Heads the cone points towards Florida, tails it points to Texas.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9389
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
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I sure hope she doesn't follow Doc's map above. NOLA will be on the wrong side and if she goes as slow as she has been, it won't be pretty.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
Quoting weatherh98:


Did I mention that all the "Texas solutioners" must eat Floridian served crow now? It hasn't even hit and is moving their way at 1 measle mile per hour
You should calm down. Your stress level for such a young man at this early hour of the day is WAY too high.

Winds are really picking up in my neck of the woods. I'm sitting on my porch watching the low clouds stream by at a good 50-60 mph. :)
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People need to keep in mind a Texas solution is still very much possible, but yet so is Florida, but it could head north into NOLA. Ugh... my head.
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Debby is NE of the Model!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
2541. GetReal



I place the center of Debbie near 27.5N and 87.5W. Also note that the latest highest surface pressures observed are to the north and east of Debbie. Debbie will seek out the path of least resistance, and turn towards the area of lowest pressure which is to west and NW of Debbie towards the SE or central La coast.

IMO

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my in-laws still don't know what to do...

they are traveling down to orlando from NC on tuesday and have until 4PM monday to cancel their reservations..

they keep asking if the precip will be out of FL by tuesday night (either way)... and i just don't have a clear answer for them
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2539. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC015-071-241300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0008.120624T1230Z-120624T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
830 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF BABCOCK WEBB WMA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
FORT MYERS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BABCOCK WEBB WMA.
BABCOCK RANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2673 8193 2704 8185 2703 8156 2689 8156
2670 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 200DEG 41KT 2680 8183

$$
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lol
Quoting weatherh98:


Wish casts

Everyone does it haha
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
going to check out the gom,here on siesta key,sarasota,winds have increased to 30 sustained atleast,tornado warning for ft myers area now!!,expect a tornado watch for swfl/west centra fl areas
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Quoting ncstorm:
well of course Joe is still sticking with texas but our favorite supplier of model runs Allan Huffman disagrees..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Euro Ensembles indicate its operational model is an outlier in track of Debby. Many stay on west track to Texas


1h Allan Huffman Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx

@BigJoeBastardi Not sure I agree, there is a huge spread from TX to FL amongst the members. Op Euro is almost in the middle of the spread.
Is that the same Joe Bastardi who's still trying to cover his blown forecast for Chris by claiming the NHC fudged its numbers because it wasn't a hurricane, and probably not even a tropical storm? No, thanks. His forecast skills are no better than the average WU member's--and, in fact, may be worse due to his hubris. Which is bad, because people for some reason still actually pay him.

If I want advice on tropical weather, I'll stick with the NHC. JB should stick with bodybuilding...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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