Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.
Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.
Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.
Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.
Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.
References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.
Angela and Jeff
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index
If I'm looking at Google Earth correctly, the HH found the center 64 miles NE of the center from the 5am advisory. looks like 27.5N 86.29W
Am I correct?
Yes that's gotta be it. :)
The ridge over the southern plains slightly retreating westward.
Link WV Loop GOM But it is still digging into her.
Yep, I do remember, seriously, I had Bay news 9 on and he showed that buoys are reporting 50 mph gusts and even higher at times over a large area to our west, if Debbie turns east and our winds become onshore we will see similar winds near the coast. Those heavier convective cells are finally progressing more eastward for the coast now. That is when the real rain begins. This is just the appetizer :)
3 meters above observation height, so probably only counts for about 60mph officially, which is still above previous max winds.
(27.8667N 86.4833W) is the center fix by recon a few moments ago.
That was some storm, wasn't it. It is still black outside. I am in Coral Ridge Estates, are you nearby?
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 27.9N 86.5W
Location: 165 miles (266 km) to the SSW (198°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (29.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 250° (from the WSW) 1 knots (1 mph)
1000mb -50m (-164 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 638m (2,093 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 160° (from the SSE) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,376m (4,514 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 200° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 11:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Splash Location: 27.86N 86.49W
Splash Time: 11:21Z
Well, it could still turn west, but a number of us were maintaining a more NE movement before it did. Emguy, you did good.
I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
EDIT: Looking at the steering layers after posting this. There is a pretty big weakness in the ridge. Probably enough to let Debby through right where she's at.
the NHC may have to have some of that too..LOL..but you right, it still could turn west..what a storm!
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WATERSPOUTS: ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLOODING: STREET FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN LOCALES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WHERE
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH COULD OCCUR AT ANY LOCATION WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.
WAVES: SEAS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WELL
WEST OF NAPLES.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
GULF COAST BEACHES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
Warmed
Channeling my best Kahn...
"Crow is a dish best served, cold."
wow really? I'll be headed over there :)
will do man lol
We are getting hammered again right now.
True and an old person like me never discounts history :)
If you connect the west Floridan border and the western convection, you'll be able to see a old-style car. (At least I see it)
Dude, get over it. The watches / warnings were not issued. The winds, even at 5 a.m. DID NOT REQUIRE their issuance. I do note that the appropriate flood watches and warnings HAVE been issued. I don't see why anybody needs to admit they made a mistake THEY DIDN'T MAKE.
No matter how logical you feel you are being, 1) you are just expressing an OPINION for which 2) you have not expressed any factual support and 3) you are, as an amateur, claiming to know / understand more than trained experts with access to the best equipment and technology.
Chill, dude...
No offense intended or taken.
I was right. I am surprised that i was right.
ok I read the wrong numbers but the center fix is way NE of the NHC's 5am position.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Hey weather! I see you are up early too. I guess the shift was a little surprise for us. It could still move west, but that little impulse of energy some of us were talking about may have moved Debby a little further North.
Viewing: 2351 - 2401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index