Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

Share this Blog
36
+

Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 736 - 686

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Quoting MississippiBoy:
I see models are going off leftend and rightend,I just hope mother nature doesn't pull a sneek up the middle.Thats something that Alabama would pull.LOL


ROLL TIDE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
EVERYONE on this blog is a wishcaster..you wouldnt be here if you werent..let people state their opinion, if you dont like it then dont comment..its gets old after 6 years to hear the same term over and over

Hi, Im ncstorm and I am a wishcaster!..LOL!! Lighten up blog!
So true. Sometimes the criticism on this blog is a bit much. We are all here because we have in common that we are fascinated by tropical weather. Can't we all get along?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I've seen absolutely nothing from the mission that was tasked for this evening.


The next one departs at 6:15 AM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With Debby being a tropical storm, tropical storm warnings (red) and small craft advisories (purple)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Debby at the end don`t go to Florida nor Texas and instead go to Mississippi or Alabama I know its not likely the Floridian and Texans wish casters will be very disappoint.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LightningCharmer:
So you're saying we need a support group for wishcasters? Perhaps, we could coin some new psychiatric conditions, HDS (Hurricane-Denial-Syndrome), IAPD (Invest-Anxiety-Paranoia-Disorder), etc.


You know I remember someone posting a 12 step program here one year..the blog can be funny sometimes..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

She's not being hit just stopped. Maybe it's a jealous sister.
Link GOM WVLoop


Looks like that ULL is finally starting to drift the southwest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see models are going off leftend and rightend,I just hope mother nature doesn't pull a sneek up the middle.Thats something that Alabama would pull.LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting that the models that have opposing scenarios happen to have the best skill score for the 500mb heights in the Northern Hemisphere.



Ahh, but can they dance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
I think southern La/Ms/Al/west Fl panhandle may see some surge & storm out of Debby. Much moisture will be stripped away over the SE while the swirl is shoved south to the Brownsville area.



so in other words, the bigger impacts will be felt in the areas that will not see the landfall? that is kind of ironic considering all of the wishcasting talk there has been.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting that the models that have opposing scenarios happen to have the best skill score for the 500mb heights in the Northern Hemisphere.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Sunday, June 24, 2012 0:00 Z

Location at the time:
301 statue miles (484 km) to the S (183°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
45 knots (~52 mph | 23 m/s | 83 km/h)

Pressure:
1000 mb (29.53 inHg | 1000 hPa)

Coordinates:

26.1 N 87.5 W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so no purple where the storm symbol is??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All well and good for me. Stay weak Debby. My kid's in Bay City.





Debby's possible effects on SETX

Posted: Jun 23, 2012 5:33 PM CDT Updated: Jun 23, 2012 5:33 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Central Gulf of Mexico about 220 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a forecasted track very similar to the European Model forecasted Track.

What can Southeast Texas expect weather-wise from this storm?

If the storm is well-behaved and does NOT deviate from the forecasted track or slow down or speed up, then the closest approach to our area is on Wednesday, June 27th.

Wednesday, Debby will be approximately 120 miles to our south in the gulf.

Using the National Hurricane Center's Current Forecast...Squally weather is expected with gusts to tropical storm-force (40 mph) mainly along Coastal Sections of Southeast Texas meaning the Interstate 10 Corridor to the coast.

IF DEBBY IS STRONGER THAN FORECASTED, THEN STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. The best chance for squalls will be Wednesday and into early Thursday. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected both those days.

Currently, NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

However, Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for Chambers, Hardin, Jefferson and Orange Counties.

Very rough conditions are expected in the gulf with high seas and probably Gale Warnings ultimately issued.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
EVERYONE on this blog is a wishcaster..you wouldnt be here if you werent..let people state their opinion, if you dont like it then dont comment..its gets old after 6 years to hear the same term over and over

Hi, Im ncstorm and I am a wishcaster!..LOL!! Lighten up blog!
Thank you!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've seen absolutely nothing from the mission that was tasked for this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
720. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT pass from this afternoon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


So the convection is moving to the COC?


no other way around he is saying
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
EVERYONE on this blog is a wishcaster..you wouldnt be here if you werent..let people state their opinion, if you dont like it then dont comment..its gets old after 6 years to hear the same term over and over

Hi, Im ncstorm and I am a wishcaster!..LOL!! Lighten up blog!
So you're saying we need a support group for wishcasters? Perhaps, we could coin some new psychiatric conditions, HDS (Hurricane-Denial-Syndrome), IAPD (Invest-Anxiety-Paranoia-Disorder), etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty strong shift west on the 00z suite.


Cue HoustonCasters and DOOMcasters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:


Gentlemen dont hit girls, so that ULL has to be a woman. lol.

She's not being hit just stopped. Maybe it's a jealous sister.
Link GOM WVLoop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just hope that everyone stays safe! I live on the West coast of Florida. I do not wish a storm towards me, or to anyone else!

Please be prepared!

Blessings to ALL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
713. Skyepony (Mod)
I think southern La/Ms/Al/west Fl panhandle may see some surge & storm out of Debby. Much moisture will be stripped away over the SE while the swirl is shoved south to the Brownsville area.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Cosmic stop making me hungry , lobster is my favorite seafood ! :))
lol....you should eat by now my friend. Lobster's my favorite seafood as well, by far. Especially since I can't get good scrod anymore.
.
The rains have ended completely btw.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

Only had lobster once it was at an Italian restaurant called Carraba's and I got the seafood canneoli which has crab, lobster, shrimp,scallops,on in a pasta shell with a sauce and it was awesome.
Couldn't quite tell if something was crab or lobster but still it was good.
I apologize if I am off topic or make any of you hungry.


Storm watchin' is hungry business! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey guys i think or COC of Debby is all most under the t-storms


So the convection is moving to the COC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting owenowen:
It's Global Warming, lololololololololol


Indeed, thanx for the kindly reminder too.

Welcome.

Have a cold Fresca .

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)

Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5.

An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?"

He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms.

However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month.

There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


here



Wow! Thanks. Yes, Debby is getting sheared like crazy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS ain't budging.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cctxshirl:
I just don't see Debby coming to Texas, but I guess I'd better get my hurricane supply together just in case!


I am in Corpus as well, what makes you say that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Those of us on the TX coast would love to have our lakes filled by a nice TS. But I don't think this will be it. Even with shear, this slowpoke Debby has lots of time to get her circulation stacked and plenty of warm water (despite apparently marginal GOM temps) to strengthen her. And there's no deep drought in STX to drain her dry as happened last year. So Texans should be careful what they wish for. We may have days to see what this thing is going to do. Y'all get your hurricane boxes ready!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Debby strenthens much, would it mean a more northerly track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just don't see Debby coming to Texas, but I guess I'd better get my hurricane supply together just in case!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I'm in Oakland Park myself and had a strong storm come through but nothing out if this world. Lights still on. There was a pretty intense line that moved through the entire county from the south about 30 minutes ago.


That was a nice little storm wasn't it?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty strong shift west on the 00z suite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


To further deter the "Florida-casters"

00z Models



bamm suite moved east again

still not much decided IMO until she actually makes a move
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather west of Ft. Myers probably has numerous waterspouts and is one of the meanest looking on satellite and radar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Debby is starting to show some ventilation on her western and southwestern sides. Definitely strengthening going on. I don't see a naked swirl anymore...where'd it go?
It seems she's lost most of the convection over the COC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New model runs out and the GFS is STILL convinced it's going east.

Zoom in and look at the BAMM, that's hilarious.


A....Friday (saturday a.m.?)....landfall in SE Louisiana...

with that loop it cuts, Florida would be absolutely drowned in rainfall totals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Debby is starting to show some ventilation on her western and southwestern sides. Definitely strengthening going on. I don't see a naked swirl anymore...where'd it go?


here

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's Global Warming, lololololololololol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feeling the outerbands of Debby here in West Palm Beach, Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EVERYONE on this blog is a wishcaster..you wouldnt be here if you werent..let people state their opinion, if you dont like it then dont comment..its gets old after 6 years to hear the same term over and over

Hi, Im ncstorm and I am a wishcaster!..LOL!! Lighten up blog!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If there were ever any doubts.



To further deter the "Florida-casters"

00z Models

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:
Well I'm out, going to go get some dinner. Dont expect much out of her tonight but, I expect DMAX will be kind to her in the morning.

DMAX won't help her much... DMAX is only useful in a low shear environment where convection that forms doesn't just get blown away, which would happen to Debby.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Warning!


JasonCoolMan2007 IN TROPIC TALK SAID HE IS GOING TOO put A Virus wish will will infect the blog tomorrow !!



i will WU e mail all the admins ASAP

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Cosmic stop making me hungry , lobster is my favorite seafood ! :))

Only had lobster once it was at an Italian restaurant called Carraba's and I got the seafood canneoli which has crab, lobster, shrimp,scallops,on in a pasta shell with a sauce and it was awesome.
Couldn't quite tell if something was crab or lobster but still it was good.
I apologize if I am off topic or make any of you hungry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If there were ever any doubts.

Nice. Thank God for that ULL. Debby would have bombed out today if that wasn't there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 736 - 686

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
31 °F
Overcast