Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.
Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.
Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.
Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.
Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.
References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.
Angela and Jeff
Reader Comments
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Texas is not yet out of the woods as yet, so they have to watch Debby very keenly.
Funny statement from someone bashing wishcaster :)
GFS has been steady all along, no wishcasting there.
Hahaha! Funny. No bath salts for any bloggers.
The NHC did make the safest bet. I agree. Just need to change it soon.
Euro still has the placement wrong by 1 dg. which means alot in determining if this feels that trough on Monday into Tuesday coming down. I think the 12Z Euro will again move more east inline with the panhandle of Florida on the next run, again unless we find out tomorrow morning for some reason the LLC is still around 87.5-88W. My guess it will be around 86.5
NOGAPS----->WEST _______50% TEXAS
ECMWF------>WEST
GFS-------->EAST
CMC-------->NOW EAST__________50% FLORIDA
GFDL------->EAST
UKMET------>NORTH(LOUISIANA)
THIS WILL BE INTERESTING
Taco :o)
Get a Grip,
Relax with a cold Fresca.
ECMWF takes it north now too, also the NOGAPS 00Z has not come in yet I dont think, so only the newest HWRF goes to Texas
Im not bashing them for following predictions of most of the models... but I am a complete amateur and with ALL the heavy convection on the E side of the storm... and the storm slowly drifting N.... that puts TS conditions at or very near NW and N FL, and AL. I understand their long term forecast going W.... but still seems like common sense that TS warnings should've been issued for the areas I mentioned. Too late now... hopefully she doesn't blow up overnight
This is just ONE run. and second of all. Just because the GFS has been consistent doesn't mean its right. The model has been over-amping the trough, like always, and has completely ignored SIMPLE meteorology, like not rebuild the ridge, have the storm head NE even with the HUGE ridge overhead... Etc. The western models have been in a much better consensus(At times) and is shifting East, due to Debby's current state. They could easily turn back the west at 12z.
The record low year was 2007, but 2012 is way ahead of that year's schedule. It's been said that the eventual disappearance of perennial Arctic Ocean ice cover in summer due to global warming could happen quite quickly. When it does go, It'll have profound implications for global climate, probably including hurricane activity.
Link
If one needs to prepare, tomorrows the day.
Peace
I agree.....i was looking at the trough...and i just could not believe it would not feel the affects
Like I said to Jedkins, I understand them going with the track towards the west because most of the models were and it made sense.... but also makes sense to issue warnings for AL and N/NW FL since they're on the east side where the TS conditions are.... moving N right into them. Oh well, like you said, nothing can be done. I just hope it doesn't stall over that area and they end up getting feet of rain on top of the foot they received last week.
My point being, warnings should've been issued earlier today for a much, much larger area, given the admitted low-confidence in the track.
Hey man! Good to see you on here!
Thank you. I live in Mobile/Pensacola area and we had a TON of rain a few weeks ago. 12-20" to be exact. Well...looks like we're about to get some more.
One should surely never chew on the face of a meteorologist!
They are the ones who so many depend upon for so much, such as keeping them safe with vital weather data. But if anyone were to ever chew on the face of a meteorologist, how would they ever even be able to see the clouds through all the rain? It would definitely not be a good thing, I can tell you that much. ;-)
the HWRF just went into North Florida now i do believe...i just posted it a few minutes ago.
Debbie is north of the first forecast point now, either N or NNE it seems, it's hard to tell though with this storm, so I'm not going to jump on any eastern movement until I see confirmation of it, otherwise its hype for nothing. Anyways, we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Then again, this could still get into the western Gulf, this is just 1 run after all.
LONG LIVE THE KING!
It's too early to say though.
HWRF points towards Texas...as I posted.
Yes, but the 0z suites (to my knowledge) were the first to have actual recon data incorporated.
Yes, yes. It's important to remain calm. Tomorrow will shed a lot of light on the situation.
But wow, I've been on here for over 6 years and this is the most confused I've ever been about a tropical cyclone.
Well, despite the lack of a watch or warning: be careful! You can easily see on radar what is coming at you.... if she stalls (as expected), I can't even imagine how much more rainfall you will receive. Along with the flooding, with TS winds, that could uproot weak-rooted palm trees, and you know where it goes from there....
Stay safe!
Are you making fun of me?? ;)
this is a most perplexing storm
And I've been saying it over and over yesterday, we need the damn data to know where it goes.
I think that might happen to tennisgirl..... I think we are going to get 10 to 15 more inches of rain from "Lil Debbie"..... I also think Warnings and Watches should have gone up already....
Just Saying ....
Taco :o)
The storm is moving slow, there is plenty of time to issue T.S. watches and warnings tomorrow if necessary, and remember, that's a huge if, there's no way to tell tonight if this storm is actually heading to Florida.
BTW, the rain went light and now it just started pouring really hard with strong gusty winds to about 35 mph, a nice little squall moving through, its so shallow I'm not sure if the radar can see the difference between it and the blanket of steady rain, lol.
Now I've been leaning towards a Florida landfall for days now as I said earlier, but I've never been very confident about it all because many models were against an eastern track, as well as some bright weather minds, I'd be highly arrogant if I was sure it was going to go right given the strong uncertainty and spread of possible paths.
LOL!! The blog gets rather funny late at night.
I'm telling ya we'll know more ONCE they use the data from the 6 am flight. Recon is one of the most valuable tools tropical meteorologists have.
West-40%
HWRF
Nogaps
Central-40%
CMC
Euro
Bamm Suites
Ukmet
East-20%
GFS
GFDL
AL, 04, 2012062406, , BEST, 0, 270N, 873W, 45, 998, TS
Don't expect a change until Recon investigates.
Dislike!
Not even from good 'ol Stewart? Oh, that's just dreadful.
My only point is that, especially for a storm this lopsided and this large, landfall point really isnt a big deal (unless she strengthens and becomes much more organized). The heaviest convection and thunderstorms are to the East and starting to form to the N. This is also where the TS force winds are located. It just seems like common sense that NW and N FL westward should have been included in the warnings. Even if the landfall doesn't happen for days, and it happens in LA, N and NW Florida will likely see TS force conditions by tomorrow morning or afternoon.
Whereas the areas under a warning likely won't be seeing anything for a couple days... even if the storm does go west
Have a great night everyone...I'm off to bed.
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