Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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Quoting Patrap:
..."that's no Moon"...


It's a space station!
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Why did it shift a tad south of the last track when 00Z runs are further north? The NHC is just plain confused.

However, they are calling for a Hurricane.
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Quoting AllStar17:


...and depending on how quickly the shear lessens and it gets its act together, that may even have to be raised a little more IMO.




wind shear is down too 10kt



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1131. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Warning

Statement as of 9:44 PM CDT on June 23, 2012

... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 7 am CDT
Monday...

* coastal flooding... coastal flooding is expected.

* Timing... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday
morning. Highest water levels will occur near the time of high
Tide. Water levels will remain elevated into Monday.

* Impacts... around Lake Pontchartrain water levels will increase
to near 2 feet above normal astronomical tide beginning late
Sunday... increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical
tide by Monday. Flooding will affect low lying areas around Lake
Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. Some roadways near the lake
could become flooded. Minor flooding is possible in some
neighborhoods along the lakes.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1130. hahaguy
Very heavy rains in Port St. Lucie right now. Luckily not too much thunder or lightning.
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1129. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


That I can't dispute. But with the east coast trough lifting out, the western Atlantic ridge should rebuild, and the flow over the storm should change from a more uniform southerly to southeasterly, or at least to something a little more variable.


Yes that is very possible. I don't have a particular preference on models.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stewart's onboard, Debby is now forecast to peak at 70 knots (80 mph).


...and depending on how quickly the shear lessens and it gets its act together, that may even have to be raised a little more IMO.
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Quoting pottery:

I see your point.
And yet the models are predominantly west
How come?


Because they see conditions evolving to build a ridge that forces the system off in that direction, crystal gazing so to speak. But for now, there is a window of opportunity where the current weakness exists to the NE. If motion in that direction were to set in it might be hard to reverse given the timing on the ridge that the West bound models are seeing.

That is why forecasting the track is so difficult.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's over the loop current. It would have to stall for a long time for upwelling to occur.



Oh ok, well thanks for answering my question. Still learning here about these storms...
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Stewart's onboard, Debby is now forecast to peak at 70 knots (80 mph).
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Evening.....round and round and round she goes... My concern is strengthening while she sits and spins....then the impact to the area that gets her. Not too much time for an evacuation.
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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...LOW LYING AREAS OF HANCOCK COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO SHORELINE PARK AND BAYSIDE ESTATES. ON THE LOUISIANA COAST...ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING. COASTAL AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS TO SHELL BEACH...GRAND ISLE...PORT FOURCHON...AND LEEVILLE WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE LAKES...LOW LYING AREAS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME ROADWAYS NEAR THE LAKE COULD BECOME FLOODED. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME COMMUNITIES ALONG THE LAKES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SEAS OVER 12 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS

Link
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The ridge is just now building into Texas, the NWS is saying it may move westward late this coming week? But No the High Pressure isnt going anywhere in a hurry

The high pressure will quickly dive SE from where it is now...over western Canada. Details on my blog update...
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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1120. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


First is 22:45 UTC and the second is 02:35UTC


Okay, I was looking at 3 hour comparisons from the cimss steering layers between 21z and 00z which showed it retreating westward, but what you have supersedes that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
Quoting WxGeekVA:
NEW forecast track map by me UNOFFICIAL



Quite possible they could shift the track a tad northward to take into account the Northern Gulf coast model solutions are could very well stay with the Euro
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1118. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any reason they didn't fly like they were supposed to?


That was for tomorrow night, not tonight. Next flight is in the morning at 12z.

REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
NEW forecast track map by me UNOFFICIAL

How confident are you of this?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Right but a ridge, whose axis extends out into the Gulf of Mexico, currently centered north of the Lesser Antilles, can induce that intial motion.


That I can't dispute. But with the east coast trough lifting out, the western Atlantic ridge should rebuild, and the flow over the storm should change from a more uniform southerly to southeasterly, or at least to something a little more variable.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612
NEW forecast track map by me UNOFFICIAL

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Quoting Levi32:


C is the take-off time. E is the time period of coverage in the storm. A as far as I can tell is the nearest standard 6-hour UTC interval, for whatever reason.
thank you, Levi
Quoting Patrap:
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z


Is Mission duration from wheels up, usually 6 Hrs
and thank you, Pat
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Quoting Jwd41190:
Since Debbie is now stalled will it start to cause upwelling and possibly weaken?

It's over the loop current. It would have to stall for a long time for upwelling to occur.

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The ridge is just now building into Texas, the NWS is saying it may move westward late this coming week? But No the High Pressure isnt going anywhere in a hurry
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The model ensemble is starting to get my attention here in central Florida.....
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Max Hail Size >4.00 in.
Quoting Walshy:
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1109. JLPR2
Quoting yqt1001:
I'm looking forward to the rain map of Debby. It'll probably be like Allison just the entire Gulf Coast will be a solid purple. They'll probably even manage to blame some rain on Debby in Puerto Rico just to add some more land to the map.


I wish... So far in my area only 0.03 inches have fallen in the month of June.

Cmon guys, share one of her bands. xD
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All this energy and storms south Florida saw from the nice squall line that formed and subsequent formation seems to have ejected eastward and the energy west of Florida is where the true outline of Debby lies. NHC I think has dodged a bullet, but Debby has sure made them sweat. Debby's going westward to some extent in my opinion, and will make the NHC look good. They certainly took a risk with their forecast track, but they decided to make a call, and they should be commended for it. Unless of coarse Debby decides otherwise.
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1107. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


Northerlies wouldn't push a system northward anyway. And I really don't see how this second trough is going to push her toward Florida once the ridge grabs her.


Right but a ridge, whose axis extends out into the Gulf of Mexico, currently centered north of the Lesser Antilles, can induce that intial motion.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1106. Patrap
..."that's no Moon"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1105. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Since Debbie is now stalled will it start to cause upwelling and possibly weaken?
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1103. shfr173
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Hello everybody. Professional luker here. Just wanted to give a shout out to all you wunder bloggers out there. Have a great night! :)
good night:)
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Quoting Drakoen:


What is the time on those images?


First is 22:45 UTC and the second is 02:35UTC
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The ridge is retreating? That's news to me.

Watch the 590dm line over Shreveport, LA shift EAST to Birmingham, AL

FULL


FULL
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Quoting Levi32:


C is the take-off time. E is the time period of coverage in the storm. A as far as I can tell is the nearest standard 6-hour UTC interval, for whatever reason.

Any reason they didn't fly like they were supposed to?
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1099. HrDelta
Apparently, Feds have declared this fire Priority One. Lots of people will be getting into Colorado Springs tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I live in the Ashfall zone, in Briargate.
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1098. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:

Anybody wanna explain to me what A C and E stand for again? I always forget


C is the take-off time. E is the time period of coverage in the storm. A as far as I can tell is the nearest standard 6-hour UTC interval, for whatever reason.
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wow
Quoting Walshy:
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Hola Debby...wanna do the Texas two-step? (we promise we won't eat you!)
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1095. Walshy
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Will Debby be a Florida storm?..mmmm
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1093. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The ridge is retreating? That's news to me.

Watch the 590dm line over Shreveport, LA shift EAST to Birmingham, AL

FULL


FULL


What is the time on those images?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
1092. Patrap
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z


Is Mission duration from wheels up, usually 6 Hrs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Levi32:


Personally, I find this experience with near-zero insight from the models very driving, pushing me to a new level of commitment and research trying to get the forecast right. Obviously for the residents of the gulf coast we would rather have a model consensus, but that aside, I wish these situations happened to meteorologists more often.
I agree and I think it's a great test for our global models. Model biases are really shinning through...
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Quoting Drakoen:


There are northerlies west of the upper level trough axis. Keep in mind that this initial trough is not the one that could potentially pull out Debby.


Northerlies wouldn't push a system northward anyway. And I really don't see how this second trough is going to push her toward Florida once the ridge grabs her.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612
1089. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes it has retreated and that has left stalling conditions for the system. That ULL to the West is not going anywhere at the moment so if anything the path of least resistance for now is to the NE where the only open door for motion at this time exists. Nothing dramatic of course but an opportunity to escape nonetheless.

I see your point.
And yet the models are predominantly west
How come?
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1088. Walshy
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 8:32 PM MDT on June 23, 2012


The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Pondera County in north central Montana...
east central Teton County in north central Montana...

* until 900 PM MDT

* at 829 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles south of
Brady... or 17 miles south of Conrad... moving north at 25 mph.

* Locations in the warning include Brady and Dutton.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Do not use Highway overpasses for shelter. Overpasses do not provide
protection from tornadic winds. Vehicles stopped under bridges block
traffic and prevent people from getting out of the storm's path and
to shelter. If you cannot drive away from the tornado... get out of
your vehicle and lie flat in a ditch as a last resort.


Lat... Lon 4823 11180 4814 11145 4782 11164 4789 11201
time... Mot... loc 0232z 197deg 21kt 4795 11184
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should be getting the 11:00 update in here anytime
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Hello everybody. Professional luker here. Just wanted to give a shout out to all you wunder bloggers out there. Have a great night! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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