Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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1186. Patrap
We have it on Radar and as it comes north the view will only improve from Mobile, this one(Red Bay) and NOLA.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
1185. Levi32
I love Stewart. He has a reason behind the forecast, not a model consensus, and he mentions the west coast trough I have been speaking about for the last few days.

DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AFTER THAT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Knew I wasn't seeing things

...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS..


Good job! I need to get my hands on that software.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
"MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to panic but this may be bad due to the lack of a firm track and lack of prep time if it ramps up fast.....just a thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes it has retreated and that has left stalling conditions for the system. That ULL to the West is not going anywhere at the moment so if anything the path of least resistance for now is to the NE where the only open door for motion at this time exists. Nothing dramatic of course but an opportunity to escape nonetheless.


Sounds dramatic --escaping from the gulf -- on the run over Florida

I'm not so crazy about a stall, because that can cause the training over us. Everything around is here is icky from rain and humidity.

How is the weather in Grand Cayman?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Knew I wasn't seeing things

...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not going to be as large a system as I think some once believed, but that may not be a particularly good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. Patrap
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
This ain't no party......This ain't no disco.....


The Talking Heads is perfect music to pump a ridge to...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I am becoming increasingly concerned we may have a Hurricane moving slowly along the Northern GOM come Monday morning.



I think im going to have to agree with ya on that
i saw a link some where earlier that was predicting a pretty strong system in a couple days

48 hrs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta love Stacy Stewart! =)

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240257
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND
NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT
WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE
WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.3N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why are they withholding the most important forecast product from us?!


which one is dat?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
894
WTNT44 KNHC 240257
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND
NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT
WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE
WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.3N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I expect a hurricane within the next five days as well, but we should definitely be conservative.


Now we know the possibility of this being a hurricane south of our coastline...Have to watch the models extra carefully now
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1351
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
South Central Texas does not get 105 to 107 degree temps unless High Pressure is kicking my butt and that is my forecast next 4 to 5 days. :)

I was referring to a surface to low-level (steering layer) ridge. The 105 to 107 degrees you are experiencing are associated with an upper ridge over the western US...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaCat5:
11am EDT advisory, Stationary. I don't think I've ever seen a cyclone stay perfectly stationary before. Bring on a pressure gradient!


It's like watching a herd of turtles stampede thru a peanut butter patch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models favoring now an Upper TX/LA landfall now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Stationary...

Tropical Storm DEBBY
...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 23
Location: 26.3�N 87.5�W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph




moved slightly north. It was at 26.1 earlier.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Why are they withholding the most important forecast product from us?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


After she busts the trough


So good to see you!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Hello everybody. Professional luker here. Just wanted to give a shout out to all you wunder bloggers out there. Have a great night! :)


thanks Chasey, you too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Once shear backs off that's when I'll believe the forecast intensity.


I expect a hurricane within the next five days as well, but we should definitely be conservative.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20455
Quoting washingtonian115:
Uhhh you mean pumping?.(okay this so does not sound right with the humping and pumping ridge thing going on...)


WU After Dark
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This ain't no party......This ain't no disco.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
OK...I just gotta ask.......Is Debby about to begin....well.....humping the ridge?


After she busts the trough
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
Calling for an 80mph hurricane approaching Texas now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1158. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
I am becoming increasingly concerned we may have a Hurricane moving slowly along the Northern GOM come Monday morning.


Still a ways to go, but it's looking more likely as time passes.
As it is now, any number could come up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11am EDT advisory, Stationary. I don't think I've ever seen a cyclone stay perfectly stationary before. Bring on a pressure gradient!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once shear backs off that's when I'll believe the forecast intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. Grothar
Veryh cold cloud tops building again. That yellow image looks a little like "Kilroy was here"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
OK...I just gotta ask.......Is Debby about to begin....well.....humping the ridge?

Depends on whether Stewart is doing the night shift or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
..."that's no Moon"...


"It's an Imperial Battle Station!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1133. Presslord...LOL! U BAD!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stationary...

Tropical Storm DEBBY
...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 23
Location: 26.3N 87.5W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1150. Walshy
It is pumping the ridge...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

The high pressure will quickly dive SE from where it is now...over western Canada. Details on my blog update...
South Central Texas does not get 105 to 107 degree temps unless High Pressure is kicking my butt and that is my forecast next 4 to 5 days. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
OK...I just gotta ask.......Is Debby about to begin....well.....humping the ridge?
Uhhh you mean pumping?.(okay this so does not sound right with the humping and pumping ridge thing going on...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stewart's onboard, Debby is now forecast to peak at 70 knots (80 mph).


Cool...before this forecast came out....I was predicting an 85 mph hurricane at landfall on my blog! I suppose my guess was a good one for now....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1146. Patrap
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY
REPORTS IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
Quoting presslord:
OK...I just gotta ask.......Is Debby about to begin....well.....humping the ridge?


lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I am becoming increasingly concerned we may have a Hurricane moving slowly along the Northern GOM come Monday morning.


What? Pat made a forecast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1143. HrDelta
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


So, predicted to be a Hurricane then.

I'll continue providing updates on this. Right now 2,000-2,300 People have been evacuated.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
It is important to keep in mind that the 80 mph predicted intensity by day 5 is still with the storm a good ways offshore.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Okay, I was looking at 3 hour comparisons from the cimss steering layers between 21z and 00z which showed it retreating westward, but what you have supersedes that.


Directly from the RAP and to my comp.

Watch the ridge nudge in overhead.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1140. Patrap
I am becoming increasingly concerned we may have a Hurricane moving slowly along the Northern GOM come Monday morning.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
No change in intensity. (Besides a 2 mbar drop)
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090
WTNT34 KNHC 240249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 87.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Because they see conditions evolving to build a ridge that forces the system off in that direction, crystal gazing so to speak. But for now, there is a window of opportunity where the current weakness exists to the NE. If motion in that direction were to set in it might be hard to reverse given the timing on the ridge that the West bound models are seeing.

That is why forecasting the track is so difficult.

OK, I see that.
Thanks.
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Quoting Patrap:
..."that's no Moon"...


It's a space station!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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