Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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1686. nigel20
Quoting RussianWinter:


Looks like it moved west. So much for that, I'm gonna knock myself out. Good luck to the night crew, you're staying up for the best.

Have a good night!
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1685. Patrap
Maybe a slight west drift last 90 Minutes on the Night IR Loop

ZOOM is active

RAMSDIS Night IR Floater
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
If the GFS really wind with these eastward trend we would likely get another storm near the east coast which I still don`t buy until other models are consistent with these east movement.
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1683. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


Okay, I see it. Erode the ridge it may, but Florida? I think you are underestimating the strength of the central US ridge, which has been very persistent.


Maybe. Earlier today (yesterday) I said central or eastern GOM, even though the other model solutions were certainly reasonable so we will see.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting louisianaboy444:
These models will keep flip-flopping till some move east while others most west and they will eventually converge on a state....question is what state...How about a poll guys...What state will the models eventually converge on?

A) Texas
B) Louisiana
C) Mississippi
D) Alabama
E) Florida

:)


I say B.
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It will all come down to the battle between the ridge over the central US and the trough Drak and I are discussing. A "tug of war", so to speak.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
NHC is conservative on its LLC location.. best fix still is around 27.2N and 86.8W ... makes no difference really till recon gets in there
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Tropical Storm Debby threatens Louisiana, Texas ReutersBy Jane Sutton | Reuters – 1 hr 50 mins ago


Article: Tropical storm threat shuts some U.S. Gulf oil output 3 hrs ago
Article: Factbox: Gulf of Mexico oil, gas operations affected by Debby


MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Debby formed in the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it skirted the Louisiana coast and took aim at Texas, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Debby covered much of the eastern Gulf and was centered about 215 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm had top winds of 50 miles per hour (81 km per hour) and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night.

The storm was nearly stationary but was forecast to start drifting north by Monday and then turn west, grazing the Louisiana coast through Tuesday and slamming into Texas late in the week.

Oil and gas producers evacuated workers from oil and gas platforms and shut in production on Saturday as the weather worsened in the Gulf of Mexico, which is home to 20 percent of U.S. oil production and 6 percent of natural gas output.

The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which oversees oil and gas activity in the Gulf, said earlier on Saturday that 7.8 percent of daily oil output and 8.16 percent of daily natural gas output were shut down.

The agency's next update will be released at midday on Sunday.

A tropical storm warning was issued for the Louisiana coast from the Pearl River west to Morgan City, excluding the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Residents were warned to expect storm conditions within 36 hours.

"Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous," the forecasters warned.

The combination of storm surge and high tide could cause flooding in normally dry areas near the Louisiana coast, they said.

Debby could bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with up to 10 inches of rain in isolated areas.

The heaviest squalls were hitting Florida's Gulf Coast, where there were unconfirmed reports that a tornado had touched down on Saturday. Several Alabama beaches were closed due to rough surf.

Forecasting models still diverged on the storm's potential path. Most swung it west toward Texas or Louisiana, but a few still took it east toward Florida.

(Additional reporting by Kristen Hays in Houston; Editing by Paul Simao and Todd Eastham)
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Guys listen to Pat and Mississippi Debby is stationary, but on the same note look at the rainbow loop the convection is closer than ever. Also look on the north west and south sides and you will see the clouds slowly gaining color of the last couple of frames. Sheer is dying quick.
Link
Link
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Quoting nigel20:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240534
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Looks like it moved west. So much for that, I'm gonna knock myself out. Good luck to the night crew, you're staying up for the best.
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1676. Drakoen
Quoting tennisgirl08:


How far north and east? This is news to me. Just got back on the blog. Are we talking a FL panhandle landfall?


As far east as Tampa according to the GFS. UKMET has made a huge shift eastward to LA and the GGEM has shifted farther east towards a FL Panhandle landfall.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes there is. Look at the water vapor imagery of the eastern United States. There is a large shortwave trough that will drop down from eastern Canada which will be capable of eroding the eastern side of the high pressure ridge and allow the system to come farther north and east.


Okay, I see it. Erode the ridge it may, but Florida? I think you are underestimating the strength of the central US ridge, which has been very persistent.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
Quoting RussianWinter:


Meteorology is a 24 hour job, this guy's shift had to be extend, give him a bit of slack, we are all kind of tired here, and thus suspect to hallucinations and visions that the storm is going east.


Drak knows I'm joking...

I think the funniest part about jokes is when bystanders don't realize it's a joke and get a little defensive. Hehe. Errr...or maybe you're joking too and I'm the gullible one??
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The majority of the GFS Ensembles are now in agreement with the original GFS track.

This storm is currently impacting FL and will be a FL event.

IMO :)

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1672. nigel20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240534
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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CMC has now a landfall near Panama City Beach and hugs the coast and cross N florida... reason why compared to other runs? It's NOT at 90W like it kept saying for the past 3 days.
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1669. Patrap
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
This model changing\trending East stuff is making me want to go to Walmart before we wake up with some nastiness on our doorstep.

I can assure you, no one in Tally thinks it's coming to the panhandle. I was out at Hurricane Bar and Grill tonight (I know, how funny), and they had it on the TV. Everyone kept commenting on how it was going to Texas and there was nothing to worry about.


No one is forecasting a Fla, Landfall that Im aware of.

But I'm dull after Midnight.

Follow the NHC and your local NWS as rumor is a bad way to prepare for reality.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting gator23:


Look at the steering layers


What about them? There is a weakness to the east of the storm, but it is weak and has been pretty variable all evening. The trough is lifting out, Debby is not moving, and shouldn't do a sharp recurve toward Florida. Water vapor imagery doesn't show anything but a ridge. If there is a weakness, it is confined to the lower troposphere. And the shear appears to be gradually relaxing over Debby, so that it should become a vertically deeper system within the next 12-24 hours.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes there is. Look at the water vapor imagery of the eastern United States. There is a large shortwave trough that will drop down from eastern Canada which will be capable of eroding the eastern side of the high pressure ridge and allow the system to come farther north and east.


How far north and east? This is news to me. Just got back on the blog. Are we talking a FL panhandle landfall?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
These models will keep flip-flopping till some move east while others most west and they will eventually converge on a state....question is what state...How about a poll guys...What state will the models eventually converge on?

A) Texas
B) Louisiana
C) Mississippi
D) Alabama
E) Florida

:)

A. Upper TX
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Port o connor landfall by hwrf
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Ahh yes the steering layer that changes every second, every minute, every hour. The weather is always progressing along...doesn't wait for no man or no woman.

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An intense area of thunderstorms in blowing up off Tampa. If the circulation is in that area then we might be seeing a strengthening system here tonight. I can't seem to find the circulation as visible as it was earlier. Oh and I haven't heard much talk on the low pressure system spinning off Houston. According the Fujiwhara effect, wouldn't it be safe to consider the storm being yanked towards anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


And you are studying to be a meteorologist? Maybe that is what's wrong with these models. The guys who put the info into them can't even tell time. Shame...


Meteorology is a 24 hour job, this guy's shift had to be extend, give him a bit of slack, we are all kind of tired here, and thus suspect to hallucinations and visions that the storm is going east.
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ok, thanks. Just have to wait and see.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably a decent category 2.
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1660. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


And you are studying to be a meteorologist? Maybe that is what's wrong with these models. The guys who put the info into them can't even tell time. Shame...


lol, indeed. My inability to read off the clock on my computer when i'm tired is certainly representative of my total cognitive ability.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting TexasHurricane:
How strong is that? Looks to be around Galveston...



Probably a decent category 2.
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This model changing\trending East stuff is making me want to go to Walmart before we wake up with some nastiness on our doorstep.

I can assure you, no one in Tally thinks it's coming to the panhandle. I was out at Hurricane Bar and Grill tonight (I know, how funny), and they had it on the TV. Everyone kept commenting on how it was going to Texas and there was nothing to worry about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
to stay up or not to stay up... (for the Euro) that is the question...

*yawn*

2 year old gonna have me up in a few hours anyway...


I'm staying up, bring Popcorn, it's gonna be worth it. It will be another 3 maybe 4 frames on the satellites too.

It will be one of those moments where the truth is revealed and everyone is going OH MY GOSH, the models were right/wrong all along!
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1656. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm just confused as to what the models are seeing to pull it east. There is nothing in the synoptic picture to do this.


Yes there is. Look at the water vapor imagery of the eastern United States. There is a large shortwave trough that will drop down from eastern Canada which will be capable of eroding the eastern side of the high pressure ridge and allow the system to come farther north and east.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting RussianWinter:


Will the euro even come out before the next advisory?

2 am is approaching fast.


Yeah, it should.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
Quoting Drakoen:
I read the clock wrong. The euro initialization comes out at 2 am.


And you are studying to be a meteorologist? Maybe that is what's wrong with these models. The guys who put the info into them can't even tell time. Shame...
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How strong is that? Looks to be around Galveston...


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Landfall:


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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Those models been flip flopping since the beginning so they are kind of hard to believe right now...If the EURO shifts also i will pay attention....just for goofs what does the HWRF and GFDL say?


CMC has not flip-flopped at all, it was on TX for a long time, well before the Euro
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1651. Patrap
HH Plane goes wheels up first Light from Biloxi, so the flight will be short and we can get some good fast data early.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting RussianWinter:


Aware me of Audrey.




"A tropical wave moved across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea where it became a tropical depression on June 25. The depression stalled in the Gulf of Mexico where it showed signs of rapid intensification. At 1800 UTC, the tropical depression became Hurricane Audrey. The fledgling storm was centered 380 miles (612 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. By June 26, the storm was already at Category 2 strength as it moved northeastward at 5 mph (8 km/h). Later, the storm's forward motion increased to 15 mph (24 km/h) as Audrey continued its north-northeasterly track.[1] Hurricane Audrey then attained its peak maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and an estimated pressure of 946 millibars (27.9 inHg) before making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 27.[2] After landfall, Audrey quickly weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over inland Louisiana. Audrey then transformed into a powerful extratropical storm as it crossed over Tennessee. The extratropical remnants of Audrey then merged with another low over the Ohio Valley. The extratropical storm then reached a low barometric pressure of 974 millibars (28.8 inHg) as it moved across southeastern Canada and was unidentifiable by June 29. No one knows how strong the hurricane really was. Some of the Audrey victims told reporters that winds in Audrey were of Category 5 hurricane intensity. The wind gauge broke at 180 miles per hour (290 km/h) at KPLC weather station in Lake Charles, Louisiana. The victims had no warning of the hurricane. They were told the storm was going to make landfall in 4 days, but Audrey picked up speed, and the very powerful hurricane hit that night instead.[1]"
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
Looks like the Euro is losing friends who want to go with him to South TX.
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1648. gator23
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm just confused as to what the models are seeing to pull it east. There is nothing in the synoptic picture to do this.


Look at the steering layers
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to stay up or not to stay up... (for the Euro) that is the question...

*yawn*

2 year old gonna have me up in a few hours anyway...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm just confused as to what the models are seeing to pull it east. There is nothing in the synoptic picture to do this.


Its because I was just getting my potential chase gear together thats why Kori lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
1645. Drakoen
I read the clock wrong. The euro initialization comes out at 2 am.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
1644. owntime
Quoting louisianaboy444:
These models will keep flip-flopping till some move east while others most west and they will eventually converge on a state....question is what state...How about a poll guys...What state will the models eventually converge on?

A) Texas
B) Louisiana
C) Mississippi
D) Alabama
E) Florida

:)
A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
If she hits SE Louisiana/MS, just go ahead and give me the unlimited supply of crow. Florida/TX are still much more likely with Texas still having the edge.


I don't think that will be necessary. Although I believe that a turn to the west is a bit far fetched, I am almost certain that with the present conditions Debbie will not be moving north much longer. I would say that a turn to the east towards Florida is more likely.
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Landfall:

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Quoting louisianaboy444:


See this is why I didnt want to make any plans I knew something like this could happen lol jk


I'm just confused as to what the models are seeing to pull it east. There is nothing in the synoptic picture to do this.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's important not to get worked up over a couple of eastward shifts. Do they mean something? Of course they do. But unless it continues, or the Euro joins in, I wouldn't expect a drastic eastward shift in the next advisory.


Will the euro even come out before the next advisory?

2 am is approaching fast.
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1639. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:


You're out of luck
And the reason that you had to care
The traffic is stuck
And you're not moving anywhere (Debby?)


@FSUCOOPMAN in an hour and a half.


Sometimes the futcha' is reflected by the past, .

Timewave Zero and the I-ching.

Everything is Fractal, especially Hurricanes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting LiveToFish0430:
when does the EURO run?


It will initialize in about 30 minutes. The run won't complete for another 45min after that though.
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These models will keep flip-flopping till some move east while others most west and they will eventually converge on a state....question is what state...How about a poll guys...What state will the models eventually converge on?

A) Texas
B) Louisiana
C) Mississippi
D) Alabama
E) Florida

:)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
It's important not to get worked up over a couple of eastward shifts. Do they mean something? Of course they do. But unless it continues, or the Euro joins in, I wouldn't expect a drastic eastward shift in the next advisory.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21028

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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