Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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1736. Patrap
Quoting emguy:
This system just continues to go with the thinking...a NE Gulf Storm. We will probably see this nudge even farther NE tonight. It clearly has gained lattitude with the NE compnent this evening.


There is no NE component.

Where do you see that in the Obs or Lat/Lon?

The CoC is here,seen easily

Zoom if needed


RAMSDIS Night IR Floater

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF had Debby making landfall in southeastern Texas.


im sleepy... forget my comment LOL
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
This is the 1st set of runs with the recon data in them right?


Yeah, I think so.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
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Quoting TampaSpin:
the HWRF is now running and WOW it moving toward the PanHandle...WE got nearly every MODEL MOVING MUCH MORE EAST NOW...


Ah, indeed.
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Quoting Patrap:
Maybe Miami?


JFV would certainly be happy, bless his little old soul.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF had Debby making landfall in southeastern Texas.



NOT any more...LOL
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1729. Patrap
Quoting RussianWinter:


What makes you think that? Why sir, that'd be crazy!


Ваш ловить на хорошо товарищ
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
1728. emguy
This system just continues to go with the thinking...a NE Gulf Storm. We will probably see this nudge even farther NE tonight. It clearly has gained lattitude with the NE compnent this evening.
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 629
Quoting Drakoen:


Possible, although I think that the GFS would deserve much more credit.


Interesting. This would be very much unexpected. Tropical Storm watches/warnings would need to go up along the northern gulf coast ASAP.
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Quoting weatherganny:


Not familiar with the steering layer maps...could you please explain this to me?
Basically follow the arrows and this particular map is for a 1000 mb. or higher storm with winds less than 45 knots. and is looking down at the 700-850 mb. steering layer which is close to the surface.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
the HWRF is now running and WOW it moving toward the PanHandle...WE got nearly every MODEL MOVING MUCH MORE EAST NOW...
HWRF had Debby making landfall in southeastern Texas.

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Based on my analysis of satellite and radar trends, the eastern panhandle through the nature coast seems like the most likely track. After the earlier fade in convection with Debby, she is beginning to fire new development and this could mean crazy rainfall here on the west coast of Florida tomorrow
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This is the 1st set of runs with the recon data in them right?
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I think debby will go to Texas, but if go to florida the GFS will be the first option the rest of the season no matter what happens
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Quoting Patrap:
Maybe Miami?


What makes you think that? Why sir, that'd be crazy!
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Quoting Patrap:
Maybe Miami?
Nope; not welcomed lol. I only like tropical weather during the school year.
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the HWRF is now running and WOW it moving toward the PanHandle...WE got nearly every MODEL MOVING MUCH MORE EAST NOW...
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Video of road flooding in Sarasota county about 40mi south of Tampa as of 6pm today:
Debby impacting Siesta Key - Beach Rd flooding
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Running.



Oh boy
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1716. Patrap
Maybe Miami?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
Eastern half of the circulation appears to be under convection now.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting TampaSpin:



My lake is filling very quick...:)


as is our pond. Not complaining but just want it to clear out by Monday :)
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Running.

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GFDL has a landfall along with the CMC near Panama City Beach Fl also.... but it start's off with a jog tonight NW into Sunday morning.. basically saying this model should be more east of there by 50 miles.

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Clouds are beginning to thicken in the NW quadrant:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
1710. UGLYWX
Dramatic Shift in models once again.


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Dry air might not be as big of an issue for debbie, except for the north.

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Quoting trinigal:
Dumping buckets right now in the Tampa area and pool looks like it is about to overflow.



My lake is filling very quick...:)
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1707. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ahh yes the steering layer that changes every second, every minute, every hour. The weather is always progressing along...doesn't wait for no man or no woman.



Not familiar with the steering layer maps...could you please explain this to me?
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Dumping buckets right now in the Tampa area and pool looks like it is about to overflow.
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so the models are shifting eastward?
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1703. Drakoen
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Would it be fair to say that Debby could split the gap between the two major models? meaning GFS and Euro camps? Serious question.


Possible, although I think that the GFS would deserve much more credit.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
1702. Patrap
magine dat?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
Quoting Drakoen:


As far east as Tampa according to the GFS. UKMET has made a huge shift eastward to LA and the GGEM has shifted farther east towards a FL Panhandle landfall.


Yea if it does pan out the way NOAA says it will then this is going to be an odd track. It will rake all of Louisiana Coast on it's way to Texas unless she veers southwest.
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00z spaghetti loop
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1699. Patrap
Tropical Storm DEBBY Public Advisory



US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240534
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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GFS-Ensemble Members tighly clustered towards a west coast of FL. landfall:

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1697. Drakoen
GFDL 00z FL Panhandle landfall.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting Drakoen:


As far east as Tampa according to the GFS. UKMET has made a huge shift eastward to LA and the GGEM has shifted farther east towards a FL Panhandle landfall.


Would it be fair to say that Debby could split the gap between the two major models? meaning GFS and Euro camps? Serious question.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It will all come down to the battle between the ridge over the central US and the trough Drak and I are discussing. A "tug of war", so to speak.
I completely agree with you and Drak's analysis as I too used the "Tug of War" analogy yesterday in one of my posts.
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1694. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe a slight west drift last 90 Minutes on the Night IR Loop

ZOOM is active

RAMSDIS Night IR Floater


No because the 11:00pm NHC coordinate was at 87.5W and now it is at 87.3W. That is eastward drifting.

They are da authority.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Rain is getting heavier here on the west coast of Florida and the wind is really picking up within the last hour even though it's only out of the southeast.


BTW, I'm seeing increasing lightning flashes to the southwest over the gulf and quite a bit of it too, those are some powerful cells developing, thunderstorm tops to 40,000 and 50,000 ft at times, and the PWAT is 2.4 to 2.7 inches, yeah, those things are capable of dumping a crazy amount of rain...


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1692. Patrap
DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.3W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128276
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
These models will keep flip-flopping till some move east while others most west and they will eventually converge on a state....question is what state...How about a poll guys...What state will the models eventually converge on?

A) Texas
B) Louisiana
C) Mississippi
D) Alabama
E) Florida

:)

A/E LOL
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Hmm, after watching the satellites though, I think they got the center wrong. I ain't going to sleep yet, I guess I'm gonna stay up.
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Would love to have recon inside of this intense convection. Wowza.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting KoritheMan:
It will all come down to the battle between the ridge over the central US and the trough Drak and I are discussing. A "tug of war", so to speak.


I honestly think the trough will win.
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1686. nigel20
Quoting RussianWinter:


Looks like it moved west. So much for that, I'm gonna knock myself out. Good luck to the night crew, you're staying up for the best.

Have a good night!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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