Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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So looking at the current wind field map the NHC provides.... TS force winds are not very far offshore (south) from the FL panhandle. The storm is moving north.... and no warnings or watches for FL? I am confused...
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Has anyone checked the steering currents for Debby? I'm looking at CIMSS(Univ of Wisc) and there is this huge high over TX. It looks like Debby has nowhere to go but NE or SW - back towards the Yucatan. I would post the pic, but it's too large. Here's the link: Tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240837
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
SEVERAL HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY CHANGE.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.3N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



ALL RIGHT! LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST!

Lol.
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2083. Titoxd
Since nobody has posted it yet, let's post the Forecast/Advisory for completeness

000
WTNT24 KNHC 240833
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 87.3W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 87.3W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 87.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 87.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Yikes!
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2080. GBguy88
4AM is out, and not a mention of the approaching tropical storm conditions to the panhandle? I can understand being conservative, but it's already pushing into the panhandle near Apalachicola...
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


good luck and be safe but there is a chance this storm can change its course and head for ya..


Oh yeah no doubt, but it's way to late for us to leave now. We don't have time to rig down. If it looks like its gonna get really serious, I'm sure whether we're rigged down or not we'll start getting out of here today. We have 40 personnel on board ATM. Takes a long time to get that many folks off though.
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 24June6amGMT:
26.1n87.5w has been re-evaluated&altered*
26.5n87.4w, 27.0n87.3w are now the most recent positions

Its vector* had changed from NNE at 6.1mph(9.8km/h) to North at 5.8mph(9.3km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
MinimumPressure had held steady at 998millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
Mobile,Alabama :: KHRT is MaryEsther,Florida :: ECP is PanamaCity,Florida

The SSWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The Southernmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The longest line is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The ECP-dumbell is the endpoint of 24June12amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
At 24June6amGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over FortWaltonBeach in ~1days14hours from now

Copy&paste lch, mob, apf, ecp, khrt, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.0n87.6w-30.202n85.854w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 26.5n87.4w-30.393n86.589w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

* For the 24June6amGMT ATCF, 26.1n87.5w was re-evaluated&altered to 26.5n87.4w
So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 14June12amGMT from using the original incorrect position, which led to an incorrect straightline projection for that time.
Through recalculation using the correct position, both the vector and straightline-projection were corrected to reflect that change.
See the previous mapping to compare the difference.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Ummm... ok so it is almost 5am. Been up since 8am Saturday. Perhaps my eyes deceive me, but it looks as if the CoC is already north of the latitude of Tampa, and now south of about Fort Walton Beach. Thinking those west moving tracks may have been screwed up.


I think it's still below tampa, however that's just me.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Ummm... ok so it is almost 5am. Been up since 8am Saturday. Perhaps my eyes deceive me, but it looks as if the CoC is already north of the latitude of Tampa, and now south of about Fort Walton Beach. Thinking those west moving tracks may have been screwed up.


Agree. The Florida panhandle will be in for quite a surprise when they wake up this morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240837
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
SEVERAL HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY CHANGE.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.3N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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2074. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240834
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 87.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Ummm... ok so it is almost 5am. Been up since 8am Saturday. Perhaps my eyes deceive me, but it looks as if the CoC is already north of the latitude of Tampa, and now south of about Fort Walton Beach. Thinking those west moving tracks may have been screwed up.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I'm on a drilling rig approx 12nm east of Pass a Loutre, Southeast of Venice La. Right now we now have 35 Mph sustained winds and some 10 to 12 footers rolling out there. We gonna ride dis sucka out.


good luck and be safe but there is a chance this storm can change its course and head for ya..
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On the last few frames, convection seems to be trying hard to wrap around the N side of the circulation... maybe wind shear has finally slowed?

And the bit of convection located just south of Louisiana... she seems to be trying hard to wrap that in as a feeder band.

I think conditions are becoming more favorable, and she is taking advantage. Definitely looking better and better... and that has been the case for a while now. FL panhandle is about to get drenched. We will see if there are any TS force winds along with it. Should give us a good idea about how big this girl really is ... seems massive in size on satellite
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Quoting emguy:


You are looking good at the moment...All models including the EURO are now east of you...From New Orleans to just north of Tampa. The only exception in the models would be the unreliable HWRF...which goes significantly south of you toward extreme south Texas. Hope this is good news for you. It looks to be so.


Thank you so much! I hadn't seen the latest models....I've been staying up all night stressing out over this storm.

You made my day. Thanks!!
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I'm on a drilling rig approx 12nm east of Pass a Loutre, Southeast of Venice La. Right now we now have 35 Mph sustained winds and some 10 to 12 footers rolling out there. No rain ATM. We gonna ride dis sucka out.
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***Newsflash..they moved Mike Sidel to Clearwater..lol
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2065. emguy
Quoting TampaCat5:
Man, I would not want to be the one doing the 5AM charts for the NHC. I would just put a big question mark on each one. As far as the discussion:

HEADERS, WHATEVER DISCUSSION 3 I GUESS

WTF? LOL, IDK. GOOD LUCK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT WHEVER IT IS NOW
120H SOMEWHERE ELSE

$$
FORCASTER AVILA


I have familiarity in how they have handled this...but it was in the past and a lot has changed...so I don't know if this will be any good, but this IS what I'd expect....

1.) An updated center including a relocation "slightly" NE to NNE.
2.) The forecast track will look similar to maintain some continuity, but will be significantly, significantly slower. It should likely remain in the gulf again, but not extend beyond New Orleans. This way...all the bases are covered and everyone is in the cone (the fall abck win for them)...I'd expect no complete knee jert reactions due to the model shift (although there definately should be on this one considering). Decreasing the forward speed will expand the error bubble "cone of error" over the central gulf...and if they do it right...will be slow enough to include the eastern gulf north of Tampa as it also should...particulary if they are not going to change the track considerably.

We will see what they do though. I certainly don't have the answer on what they will do this time
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOLOLOLOLOL, this comment still has me rolling.


Now now, chances are she's married. In fact I'd bet all the nice looking weatherwomen are taken unfortunately.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Bet she's easy in another way too. Hey-oh!

No autographs, please. I'll be here all week.
LOLOLOLOLOL, this comment still has me rolling.
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Quoting GBguy88:


He's not *that* short. He's a short guy, but I'd give him about 5'7" or 5'8".


My roommate in college, who worked for the local news in Wilmington, NC, did an interview with Cantore. My roommate was 6'1... but absolutely towered over Cantore. He is definitely not 5'8.... I'd guess closer to 5'4
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Quoting Titoxd:
Now the $64,000.00 question is: Does the NHC issue TS watches / warnings for Florida on the 5 am advisory?


I think they have to. If not, N Fla residents will be waking up to tropical storm conditions with no watch or warning in place....

They are already way too late on this. Might as well save face and issue the warnings now.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Bet she's easy in another way too. Hey-oh!

No autographs, please. I'll be here all week.



yes indeed.
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Quoting GBguy88:


He's not *that* short. He's a short guy, but I'd give him about 5'7" or 5'8".


Well with boots on, yes i will give him my girls height.. haha
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Bet she's easy in another way too. Hey-oh!

No autographs, please. I'll be here all week.


T minus "about thirty minutes" until 5 AM update!
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Quoting charlottefl:
She's gonna have to hit the E brake and do some drifting for you guys not to get any rain up there in the panhandle...


Hope so....have had them drift across the northern GOMEX and not give us narry a drop of rain. Granted we live about 50 miles inland.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I'd like to meet Stephanie Abrams. She looks 6'3" and is very easy on my eyes. I like TWC on weekday mornings.


Bet she's easy in another way too. Hey-oh!

No autographs, please. I'll be here all week.
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Quoting Titoxd:
Now the $64,000.00 question is: Does the NHC issue TS watches / warnings for Florida on the 5 am advisory?
Lol, I'm thinking hurricane watches over the areas with tropical storm warnings. Might get a little eastward extension at most; but nothing drastic with watches and warnings.
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2054. 7544
Quoting Mamasteph:
And I believe Mike Sidel is going to be in Naples they said ..this was after Brian Norcross announced the NHC track west to Texas with an air of unbelievablenesss..and told all TWC viewers that the NHC is not betting all their money on THAT track and YOU can bet your money on that fact!..lol..Good Morning all..lurker/learner reporting for duty here on the east coast of central fla..lol...


naples hmmmm thats odd
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


u know what .. I have met Cantore and He is short.. He is like 5'2" .. I kid u not!


I'd like to meet Stephanie Abrams. She looks 6'3" and is very easy on my eyes. I like TWC on weekday mornings.
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2052. GBguy88
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


u know what .. I have met Cantore and He is short.. He is like 5'2" .. I kid u not!


He's not *that* short. He's a short guy, but I'd give him about 5'7" or 5'8".
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She's gonna have to hit the E brake and do some drifting for you guys not to get any rain up there in the panhandle...
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I thought they usually went the other way, like they were afraid of him or something.


u know what .. I have met Cantore and He is short.. He is like 5'2" .. I kid u not!
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2049. Titoxd
Now the $64,000.00 question is: Does the NHC issue TS watches / warnings for Florida on the 5 am advisory?
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Good morning Gang!! Guess we will all have to wait and see what Ms. Debbie has planned. Maybe NW Florida will at least get some rain out of her....maybe more??
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Cantore is in Pensacola.
And I believe Mike Sidel is going to be in Naples they said ..this was after Brian Norcross announced the NHC track west to Texas with an air of unbelievablenesss..and told all TWC viewers that the NHC is not betting all their money on THAT track and YOU can bet your money on that fact!..lol..Good Morning all..lurker/learner reporting for duty here on the east coast of central fla..lol...
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getting closer.. yikes!
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Great.. Storms love to follow him where ever he is reporting from .. go figure!


I thought they usually went the other way, like they were afraid of him or something.
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2044. emguy
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Cantore is in Pensacola.


Canotore's record includes never being inside the eye of a Hurricane. LOL...Cantore shield is on in P'Cola! ;)
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Quoting TampaCat5:
Man, I would not want to be the one doing the 5AM charts for the NHC. I would just put a big question mark on each one. As far as the discussion:

HEADERS, WHATEVER DISCUSSION 3 I GUESS

WTF? LOL, IDK. GOOD LUCK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT WHEVER IT IS NOW
120H SOMEWHERE ELSE

$$
FORCASTER AVILA



Kinda sounds like my forecasting lol.
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Quoting TampaCat5:
Man, I would not want to be the one doing the 5AM charts for the NHC. I would just put a big question mark on each one. As far as the discussion:

HEADERS, WHATEVER DISCUSSION 3 I GUESS

WTF? LOL, IDK. GOOD LUCK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT WHEVER IT IS NOW
120H SOMEWHERE ELSE

$$
FORCASTER AVILA
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Cantore is in Pensacola.


Great.. Storms love to follow him where ever he is reporting from .. go figure!
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Man, I would not want to be the one doing the 5AM charts for the NHC. I would just put a big question mark on each one. As far as the discussion:

HEADERS, WHATEVER DISCUSSION 3 I GUESS

WTF? LOL, IDK. GOOD LUCK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT WHEVER IT IS NOW
120H SOMEWHERE ELSE

$$
FORCASTER AVILA
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Quoting charlottefl:
Just looked at regional radar. Kinda surprised they don't have watches or warnings up for the FL panhandle, MS, AL, etc..


Look for the 5 AM models..

In theater announcer voice:

Because everything is about to change.
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Funktop loop is showing a lot of green.
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Also hearing that most of the models shifted towards FL landfall but I want to see the data for sure tho.. But She is starting to get a lil organized .. If she gets more convection around her center then we got a new ball game.. Most likely more strengthening b4 landfall somewhere a long the gulf-coast.. I never wish any storm on anyone b/c it really does suck riding out a slow moving storm or any strong storm.. I hope everyone be safe if u run into any bad weather conditions..

JG
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Cantore is in Pensacola.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.