Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Spiderweb shifting East... GFS fighting strong....


darn darn darn darn darn darn darn....
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2135. K8eCane
Quoting Mamasteph:
.Glad to have brightened your day!lol..


I have heard that quote before but this is the first time i have heard it that i think it may actually be true
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2134. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak #s showing some NNW movement.
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Not to be repetitive, but the NHC is wording this as close to the cusp as possible to CYA, (Cover Your A+$). They missed the forcast with the models and need to recover slowly. Watch the forcast positions move with each advisory, as well as the cone. Thank goodness Debby is not a fast mover at this time...


ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.
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Quoting 2xRitaEvacuee:


Thanks! I was aware that the track changes and mostly towards the east, but since the models changed so much this time I was surprised that the official NHC track didn't much.


Yeah. They're having a hard time with this one. I'm relieved they've moved it off where my son lives. From personal experience, lately, When Louisiana gets a storm we get the next. Lol. Wouldn't surprise me for it to go into Louisiana. :)
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Quoting K8eCane:


One of my favorite quotes on here


chuckle,chuckle
.Glad to have brightened your day!lol..
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2130. Skyepony (Mod)
FLWaterFront~ There has been a lack of Gonzo or a G-5 chucking dropsondes for the models all over the gulf.. But then again the big player in this is the ridge, how strong & how fast.. something over land where you can't be throwing those things.
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Spiderweb shifting East... GFS fighting strong....

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2128. K8eCane
Quoting Mamasteph:
I know the people in Jax were keeping an eye on this because the GFS was showing an exit to the East Altantic over them...possibly dumping 5 to 10 inches of rain as it did and they just had all that flooding from Beryl cleaned up..now with the NHC acting like this storm WILL NOT come ashore in north fla..WILL NOT exit over Jax..and Debby DOES take the GFS track and catches Jax unaware seeing how there are no warnings up..people are going to be P.O.'d to the max..doNHC is gonna have some 'splainin' to ...


One of my favorite quotes on here


chuckle,chuckle
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The track usually always changes and most of the time it goes east. Or north in TX case. It may continue shifting east. The NHC is the official word on these things. Just keep checking their advisories. My opinion, if the EURO shifts/stays east the track probably will too. This latest brings it closer to SETX. Who knows the next may not.


Thanks! I was aware that the track changes and mostly towards the east, but since the models changed so much this time I was surprised that the official NHC track didn't much.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Might be looking at a Mobile Bay landfall TODAY if this keeps up.

This is going to be so close on the timing of the ridge.

I thought I saw a weakness over Alabama, but that was based on crude use of radars to look at wind directions.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2125. emguy
It looks like NHC followed their protocols for a busted forecast with anticipation of big changes ahead..but interestingly, did not hold back as much as I thought they would. I really did expect they would keep it in the in the Gulf, but did not expect they'd move it past New Orleans. In the mean time, in their discussion...they are admitting the serious shift in the models...noting in their language that although significant, this is a pre-more significant track shift forcast compromise...but they are waiting for the next model runs to pull that trigger. Folks, we just respect that they are bound to rules and continuity of science...I've personally witnessed this. Trust me, They are telling you the parameters and all models are further east...yet they are compromising under the rules in their language. Mean time, they WILL wait for the next run to make the even bigger shift.

Only major dissapointment I have is in not slowing the forward speed, Florida is not in the cone, so a Tropical Storm Watch could not be issued there. That said, maybe some of this weather is best handled by local NWS Offices in Florida anyhow.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


That's one big ridge. Guess the models see it breaking down or moving east quickly? Which may be a good thing for everyone. If she'll move on faster maybe she won't have time to strengthen significantly.
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Yea it says that they will say more shortly in there next special advisory..


I think what this demonstrates is that in spite of all the modern technology relating to satellite-gathered data, they still desperately need the HH planes to get a grip on a tricky and rapidly evolving situation like this one.

But the problem is that with a storm that was thought to be a slow mover and almost certainly not a rapidly developing cyclone, they did not schedule the planes to go out often enough to be able to detect subtle or rapid changes in the development and movement of this cyclone which in turn could have major impacts on unsuspected locations.

Without the aircraft-gathered data, the NHC is left to more or less guess what is happening based upon extrapolating the previously-predicted model trends combined with satellite data. And that is not enough for them to be bold enough to announce a dramatic shift in the forecast and/or to issue warnings for entirely different coastline areas.
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I know the people in Jax were keeping an eye on this because the GFS was showing an exit to the East Altantic over them...possibly dumping 5 to 10 inches of rain as it did and they just had all that flooding from Beryl cleaned up..now with the NHC acting like this storm WILL NOT come ashore in north fla..WILL NOT exit over Jax..and Debby DOES take the GFS track and catches Jax unaware seeing how there are no warnings up..people are going to be P.O.'d to the max..NHC is gonna have some 'splainin' to do...
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THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.
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2120. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT about 4hrs old..
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Quoting 2xRitaEvacuee:
Why is the official track still towards Texas if the models have shifted north?


The track usually always changes and most of the time it goes east. Or north in TX case. It may continue shifting east. The NHC is the official word on these things. Just keep checking their advisories. My opinion, if the EURO shifts/stays east the track probably will too. This latest brings it closer to SETX. Who knows the next may not.
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Quoting TampaCat5:
I think it's prettty much guarenteed the NHC will issue a special advisory at 8AM.


You betcha. They issue intermediate advisories at 2a, 8a, 2p, and 8p as long as there are warnings/watches posted for coastal areas. The only time that they would issue a special advisory would be a significant change in strength (i.e. upgrade to Hurricane status upon confirmation from HH flight)
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2116. K8eCane
Major changes looks like
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Quoting TampaCat5:
I think it's prettty much guarenteed the NHC will issue a special advisory at 8AM.


Yea it says that they will say more shortly in there next special advisory..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
I think it's prettty much guarenteed the NHC will issue a special advisory at 8AM.
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Wtf.. they changed Destin, FL forecast on tuesday for tropical storm Debbie then on Wednesday to be Hurricane Debbie.. LOL
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
2112. Titoxd
Tampa WFO also posts a warning:

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH AT 3
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORMS DEBBY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY...AND ARE NOW AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

GMZ870-873-251200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TR.W.1004.120624T0847Z-000000T0000Z/
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
447 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

$$
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
2110. Titoxd
Coastal Tropical Storm Warning issued by Tallahassee WFO:

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
448 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL THE
OFFSHORE LEGS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FL. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE
LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

GMZ770-775-251800-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.W.1004.120624T0848Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
448 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

$$

17-GOULD

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what is up with nhc you think they would not put up a 5 day forecast, Untill they have west motion...... Someone said the NHC has new staff is this correct?
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
Quoting FLWaterFront:


This basically sounds like they're saying:

"We aren't sure where the center is located but it should be at 27.3N 87.3W

"We don't know what the motion is but it should be slowly to the N, or 360 degrees. We think. We.. uh, hope, anyway.

"And we don't know where this is gonna go but we think that it should go where we have been saying, sort of toward the north and then the west. Kinda. Sorta. But maybe not.

"If you want to know the truth, we really have no clue what's happening here."


They will have a better idea in a few hours give em time...

With this said. I'm out.


LONG LIVE THE KING!

(GFS)
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Shear on the NW quadrant is dropping.

ULL is collapsing and moving away to the SW.

Even on the NOLA radar loop you can see convection responding and starting to wrap around into the NW quadrant already.

See how long this lasts...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240837
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
SEVERAL HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY CHANGE.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.3N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


This basically sounds like they're saying:

"We aren't sure where the center is located but it should be at 27.3N 87.3W

"We don't know what the motion is but it should be slowly to the N, or 360 degrees. We think. We.. uh, hope, anyway.

"And we don't know where this is gonna go but we think that it should go where we have been saying, sort of toward the north and then the west. Kinda. Sorta. But maybe not.

"If you want to know the truth, we really have no clue what's happening here."
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I don't guess I'll be going out on the motorcycle anytime soon.
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Why is the official track still towards Texas if the models have shifted north?
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2102. Titoxd
Quoting RussianWinter:


They also posted the tropical storm force wind graphics.


Yep. As important as the Cone o' Doom is, this plot is the one people in Florida should keep in mind:

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Quoting charlottefl:
The COC is def north of Tampa now. If she doesn't slow down or turn she's gonna make landfall in the Panhandle somewhere and not very long from now. Interested to see if/when this turn is gonna take place.


The COC is definitely SOUTH of Tampa Now.

Locate the three major eddies and look at what they are rotating about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/java -swir-long.html
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OMG its shifting east towards us again in Nola! Not good at all! Pressure dropped 2 MB since last advisory _
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. He basically said WTF and submitted it.
Straight up lmao.

Well I'm off to sleep. Gonna get a whopping 5 hours of sleep to make sure I'm awake for the 11a.m advisory. Night/morning all.
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The COC is def north of Tampa now. If she doesn't slow down or turn she's gonna make landfall in the Panhandle somewhere and not very long from now. Interested to see if/when this turn is gonna take place.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I'm on a drilling rig approx 12nm east of Pass a Loutre, Southeast of Venice La. Right now we now have 35 Mph sustained winds and some 10 to 12 footers rolling out there. No rain ATM. We gonna ride dis sucka out.
id be fishing of the rig
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
Quoting Titoxd:


They did... sort of:

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.


No change to the warnings, but I would not be surprised if the WFOs issue inland tropical storm warnings if the northward trend continues. Does anyone at what time they issue their early-morning Area Forecast Discussions?


They also posted the tropical storm force wind graphics.
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2095. 7544
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
So looking at the current wind field map the NHC provides.... TS force winds are not very far offshore (south) from the FL panhandle. The storm is moving north.... and no warnings or watches for FL? I am confused...


somebody wake up mcnabb now!
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2094. K8eCane
Quoting charlottefl:
She's gonna have to hit the E brake and do some drifting for you guys not to get any rain up there in the panhandle...



Ive met him several times and was surprised by that too
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Quoting RussianWinter:


I think it's still below tampa, however that's just me.


Doesn't even sound like the NHC is sure where the CoC is truly located right now. LOL. Looks like it is ready to come into range on the NW Florida Radar site.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Awful discussion written by Pasch IMO. I like those 5 paragraph essay's that Stewart writes.


Lol. He basically said WTF and submitted it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2091. Titoxd
Quoting GBguy88:
4AM is out, and not a mention of the approaching tropical storm conditions to the panhandle? I can understand being conservative, but it's already pushing into the panhandle near Apalachicola...


They did... sort of:

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING
VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.


No change to the warnings, but I would not be surprised if the WFOs issue inland tropical storm warnings if the northward trend continues. Does anyone at what time they issue their early-morning Area Forecast Discussions?
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2090. WxLogic
Good Morning... I see GFS was in a roll.
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OMG Look at that!



Look at the projected path and the wind field!
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Awful discussion written by Pasch IMO. I like those 5 paragraph essay's that Stewart writes.
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Outerbands(?) of convection stretching across the state of Fla from Tampa to the Eastern shore here in Flagler Beach..winds SE@9 and starting to rain..OIA may have slight delays in flights this am due to rain the local mets. are saying..
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So looking at the current wind field map the NHC provides.... TS force winds are not very far offshore (south) from the FL panhandle. The storm is moving north.... and no warnings or watches for FL? I am confused...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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