Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz , 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

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Quoting masonsnana:
Good morning
Good morning
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Trauma. Hope it doesn't get too bad over there.


Hey AtHome!! We DO need some rain...maybe that will be all Debbie can muster!!

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Quoting TampaCat5:

No, this is not a hurricane, it is a terribly disorganized slowly moving tropical storm. You are making much ado about nothing.


Sorry, I disagree. The NHC has TS warnings issued for areas unlikely to receive TS conditions in the timeframe from when they were announced.

Meanwhile, Florida is going to be experiencing TS conditions this morning, with no watches or warnings whatsoever.

If they weren't sure, they either should have waited, or been waaay more broad with their warnings (and narrowed them down as they figure out the path). They dropped the ball. I am amazed why people would defend such unusual actions
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2183. LargoFl
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Not so sure it will be a good thing for those in Pensacola, Mobile and areas nearby that were completely flooded with a foot or more of rain very recently. If they thought the flooding last week was bad, imagine if they get another foot of rain out of this... which looks very possible right now, if you look at the radar and projected path
yes with this storm being a slow mover, yes it could very well be bad with flooding rains there, I could say somethinfg about people building in area's that flood but i wont, people will be suffering after this storm, BUT..for central florida who needed this rain badly..it is good for our area, much needed rain and probably a drought buster for sure.
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The concept of a human deciding where it's going to go by looking at current conditions rather than using hugely complex numerical models that have been worked over many years is absurd. Predictions of future conditions can't be made simply by looking at the current conditions. They can only be calculated through the use of computer models. When you have a situation as delicately poised as this, a slightly stronger trough and Debby goes east, a slightly weaker one and she goes west. Not sure how the people at the NHC could resolve this any better than the models.
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Definately going to be a chance for flooding. Already been raining a few hours in Apalachicola and Port St. Joe areas in NW Florida.


Hey Trauma. Hope it doesn't get too bad over there.
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Quoting K8eCane:
i like levi and kori. they explain their reasoning more than just, the models say this and the models say that. these models should be tossed out and some real forecasting done at this point.


No offense to Levi, he is a great forecaster and very helpful in explaining things to amateurs like myself, I respect him a lot, but he was calling Texas/ west solution hard for several days now....
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


These are paid professionals. While I understand the difficulties in forecasting, these are tropical storms and hurricanes we are talking about. Peoples lives and property are at risk. I certainly wouldn't "guess", as they seemed to have done. There were 2 options that would've been far better than what they did....

1) Wait a few more hours. Louisiana is under warnings when really that was not necessary until this morning (or maybe not at all, if this really is going to go east).

2) Put up watches and warnings for the rest of the northern gulf coast at 5am once it was completely obvious that even if it stalls and does not make landfall in florida, north florida will be receiving tropical storm force conditions... and WELL before Louisiana will (if they do at all). I mean its practically offshore as we speak... look at the wind field the NHC put out at 5

Hopefully everyone in north florida is prepared because when they wake up this morning, if the storm really is taking aim at them, they will have zero preparation time.

I don't like to bash the NHC, but anyone who can't admit they royally screwed this one up is in denial.

No, this is not a hurricane, it is a terribly disorganized slowly moving tropical storm. You are making much ado about nothing.
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2177. K8eCane
and yes the models are a very very valuable, reliable tool but there is always gonna come a time when you have to rely on whats between your ears
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Quoting LargoFl:
I kinda agree with you on this one, this storm is different, way too many things can happen with it and we humans just have to wait it out and see what happens..me myself, im listening to the GFS model which never budged from a florida crossover..it knows something WE dont..so a rainmaker we DO get..which is what florida needed and what we got..this is a good thing..not bad..except for those tornado's etc which cant be helped.


Not so sure it will be a good thing for those in Pensacola, Mobile and areas nearby that were completely flooded with a foot or more of rain very recently. If they thought the flooding last week was bad, imagine if they get another foot of rain out of this... which looks very possible right now, if you look at the radar and projected path
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Definately going to be a chance for flooding. Already been raining a few hours in Apalachicola and Port St. Joe areas in NW Florida.
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2174. tea3781
Recon is up!
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There ya go. Hence the shift...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
331 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

VALID 12Z THU JUN 28 2012 - 12Z SUN JUL 01 2012

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...

MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING IN THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH
MEAN TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE THOUGH MAY BE WITH THE UPPER HIGH...WITH
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGH WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH
WHILE EXPANDING BOTH WESTWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS WITH A
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR GREENLAND.
BEGINNING DAY
3/WED...THE 00Z GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A
SMALL BUT STRONG CYCLONE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND IS TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY TO BE PARTICULARLY USEFUL FOR THE PRELIMINARY
PRESSURES FRONTS. THUS...WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF AS AN
ALTERNATIVE...WHICH HAS GOOD DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
FOR MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IN NEARLY ALL AREAS...EXCEPT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE MANUAL INTERVENTION WILL BE NEEDED
TO ALIGN IT WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVEMENT COMBINED
WITH ITS BROAD RADIUS OF INFLUENCE AND COPIOUS MOISTURE...SHOULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION.
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2172. K8eCane
i like levi and kori. they explain their reasoning more than just, the models say this and the models say that. these models should be tossed out and some real forecasting done at this point.
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2171. LargoFl
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Do you have any idea how many different paramters in the atmosphere could affect the track and intensity? Humans just can't compute all that in a short space of time. Before we had computers, numerical models took days if not weeks to calculate.
I kinda agree with you on this one, this storm is different, way too many things can happen with it and we humans just have to wait it out and see what happens..me myself, im listening to the GFS model which never budged from a florida crossover..it knows something WE dont..so a rainmaker we DO get..which is what florida needed and what we got..this is a good thing..not bad..except for those tornado's etc which cant be helped.
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Gusting to 40 at Apalachicola, FL now.
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2169. emguy
So...If the shift continues...I have come up with a list of terms we will not want to use...to ensure our use of weather terms is not confused with the Finance World...and insure us weather fans like us do not cause a financial crisis.

AVOID:
1.) The EURO has crashed.
2.) Failure of the EURO has occurred.
3.) EURO results in headaches
4.) People prepare in wake of EURO
5.) EURO did not get it done.
6.) EURO fails to avert disaster.

You get the idea...

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2168. K8eCane
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY...

I'd say that counts as admitting a low confidence in track.I agree that TS warnings for FL would have been better a little earlier, though those aren't entirely down to the NHC.



i just wish sometimes that they didnt go soooo dang much by the almighty models. but oh well, this way, its always the models fault.
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Quoting K8eCane:


I would check my forecast as if there were no models and see what i came up with


Do you have any idea how many different paramters in the atmosphere could affect the track and intensity? Humans just can't compute all that in a short space of time. Before we had computers, numerical models took days if not weeks to calculate.
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2166. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 290 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 280 MILES WEST OF MOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM DEBBY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY...AND ARE NOW AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 11 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
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Good morning
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Quoting Mamasteph:
..Played it on the better safe than sorry mode..seeing the close proximity to fla shore ..after the recon planes came back would have put at least td/ts warnings up from fla to la..with possibility of coastal flooding and admitted the unsurety of the track..making sure either way it went people were aware and prepared..not bashing....


TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY...

I'd say that counts as admitting a low confidence in track.I agree that TS warnings for FL would have been better a little earlier, though those aren't entirely down to the NHC.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Seriously guys, enough with the NHC bashing. If you were in charge of track and intensity, and your best performing model and your second-best performing model were showing two completely different solutions, with the other models spread evenly between the two, what would you do?


These are paid professionals. While I understand the difficulties in forecasting, these are tropical storms and hurricanes we are talking about. Peoples lives and property are at risk. I certainly wouldn't "guess", as they seemed to have done. There were 2 options that would've been far better than what they did....

1) Wait a few more hours. Louisiana is under warnings when really that was not necessary until this morning (or maybe not at all, if this really is going to go east).

2) Put up watches and warnings for the rest of the northern gulf coast at 5am once it was completely obvious that even if it stalls and does not make landfall in florida, north florida will be receiving tropical storm force conditions... and WELL before Louisiana will (if they do at all). I mean its practically offshore as we speak... look at the wind field the NHC put out at 5

Hopefully everyone in north florida is prepared because when they wake up this morning, if the storm really is taking aim at them, they will have zero preparation time.

I don't like to bash the NHC, but anyone who can't admit they royally screwed this one up is in denial.
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If I worked for NHC.

Rush Hour: Carter Dispersing the Crowd
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Quoting panamasteve:
Guess I'm gonna have to start filling gas cans for the generator at daybreak....

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
502 am EDT sun Jun 24 2012


Short term [today through tuesday]...
Tropical Storm Debby has a large convective burst this morning
that envelopes much of the eastern and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Pressures have been falling rapidly over the past few
hours at c tower and buoy 42036, and the buoy had one hour of
tropical storm force winds. Both observations have been showing
peak winds to around 40 knots recently, so it appears that the
stronger portion of Debby's wind field is beginning to enter our
coastal waters. As such, we have decided to upgrade the offshore
legs of our coastal waters to a Tropical Storm Warning.
We will
have to monitor the northward progress of the strongest winds, as
any additional expansion could require including some nearshore
legs. For more details on Debby, refer to National Hurricane
Center products at hurricanes.Gov.


Given ongoing track uncertainties with Debby, and the fact that
the strongest wind field and rain bands are located to the north
and east of the center-of-circulation, people across the area
should continue to monitor the latest weather information in the
event of any sudden changes in Debby. In this particular case,
with an asymmetric storm, it is important not to focus on the
track Cone, as gusty winds and heavy rain bands may extend out a
few hundred miles to the north and east of the center of Debby.


The changes for our forecast for land areas were mainly related to
bumping up winds at the coast slightly today, and increasing pops
to over 70% across much of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We
fine-tuned the quantitative precipitation forecast and this gives storm totals through Tuesday from
about 3-4" along the I-10 corridor, to about 8" along a line from
Panama City to St. Marks, to as much as 10-12" in Gulf and
Franklin counties.
The heaviest rain totals are expected to be
focused within 10-20 miles of the coast due to a protracted period
of enhanced coastal convergence. Given the very high precipitable waters in the
tropical air mass enveloping Debby, very heavy rainfall rates will
be possible and therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued
through Monday.
About time..should have done that at 5PM yesterday...lol
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
2160. K8eCane
Quoting Mamasteph:
..Played it on the better safe than sorry mode..seeing the close proximity to fla shore ..after the recon planes came back would have put at least td/ts warnings up from fla to la..with possibility of coastal flooding and admitted the unsurety of the track..making sure either way it went people were aware and prepared..not bashing....



Totally agree Mama Steph....theres where the splainin comes in, not with the difficult forecast, but why didnt they put up some watches. Sometimes, businesses will close when the official watches go up, thus less people on the roads, etc.
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2159. LargoFl
......................Good Morning folks..pouring rain here now with wind gusts around 30 mph,finally we got some soaking rains..looks like it will be this way here today
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Guess I'm gonna have to start filling gas cans for the generator at daybreak....

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
502 am EDT sun Jun 24 2012


Short term [today through tuesday]...
Tropical Storm Debby has a large convective burst this morning
that envelopes much of the eastern and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Pressures have been falling rapidly over the past few
hours at c tower and buoy 42036, and the buoy had one hour of
tropical storm force winds. Both observations have been showing
peak winds to around 40 knots recently, so it appears that the
stronger portion of Debby's wind field is beginning to enter our
coastal waters. As such, we have decided to upgrade the offshore
legs of our coastal waters to a Tropical Storm Warning.
We will
have to monitor the northward progress of the strongest winds, as
any additional expansion could require including some nearshore
legs. For more details on Debby, refer to National Hurricane
Center products at hurricanes.Gov.


Given ongoing track uncertainties with Debby, and the fact that
the strongest wind field and rain bands are located to the north
and east of the center-of-circulation, people across the area
should continue to monitor the latest weather information in the
event of any sudden changes in Debby. In this particular case,
with an asymmetric storm, it is important not to focus on the
track Cone, as gusty winds and heavy rain bands may extend out a
few hundred miles to the north and east of the center of Debby.


The changes for our forecast for land areas were mainly related to
bumping up winds at the coast slightly today, and increasing pops
to over 70% across much of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We
fine-tuned the quantitative precipitation forecast and this gives storm totals through Tuesday from
about 3-4" along the I-10 corridor, to about 8" along a line from
Panama City to St. Marks, to as much as 10-12" in Gulf and
Franklin counties.
The heaviest rain totals are expected to be
focused within 10-20 miles of the coast due to a protracted period
of enhanced coastal convergence. Given the very high precipitable waters in the
tropical air mass enveloping Debby, very heavy rainfall rates will
be possible and therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued
through Monday.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Seriously guys, enough with the NHC bashing. If you were in charge of track and intensity, and your best performing model and your second-best performing model were showing two completely different solutions, with the other models spread evenly between the two, what would you do?
..Played it on the better safe than sorry mode..seeing the close proximity to fla shore ..after the recon planes came back would have put at least td/ts warnings up from fla to la..with possibility of coastal flooding and admitted the unsurety of the track..making sure either way it went people were aware and prepared..not bashing....
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150

2150. NICycloneChaser 9:39 AM GMT on June 24, 2012 +1
Seriously guys, enough with the NHC bashing. If you were in charge of track and intensity, and your best performing model and your second-best performing model were showing two completely different solutions, with the other models spread evenly between the two, what would you do?

I agree. I posted this as well after my initial post


2141. RadarRich 9:31 AM GMT on June 24, 2012 +0
Also, BTW, not knocking the NHC by no means. This system was, and still is, a tough one to forcast. Lots of variables in play. Hopefully, all in the path of Debby will fare well, since she is not a major storm. Still significant enough to be prepared though, whichever way she goes.
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2155. K8eCane
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Seriously guys, enough with the NHC bashing. If you were in charge of track and intensity, and your best performing model and your second-best performing model were showing two completely different solutions, with the other models spread evenly between the two, what would you do?


I would check my forecast as if there were no models and see what i came up with
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Debbie looks awfully sheared still.
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Quoting K8eCane:



After having lived and raised their kids in Homestead, my aunt and uncle moved to the panhandle because of andrew
.can understand that..I moved to Daytona then got hit with Charlie,Jean and Frances..lol..now in Flagler but not because of the 'canes..lol..
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
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Houston.

AS FOR DEBBY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TRACK
DIFFERENCES ON THIS POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WHICH MAKES OUR
FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN AND VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WHICH SLOWLY
EDGES DEBBY TO THE NORTHWEST THEN WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION (PLEASE REFER TO THEIR EXCELLENT DISCUSSION
- TCDAT4 - FOR REASONING). WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODEL AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OBVIOUSLY...OUR
FORECAST IS STILL SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STAY TUNED! 42
&&

.MARINE...
TS DEBBY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS SHE WILL
REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TODAY.
TODAY AND MONDAY`S WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY-AFFECTED
BY DEBBY...GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVER 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. TUESDAY ON INTO MID-WEEK IS WHEN THE FORECAST COULD
DRASTICALLY CHANGE AS IT IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION OF DEBBY.
DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF DEBBY`S EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY...ALL
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FROM THIS
OFFICE AND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 31

&&
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Seriously guys, enough with the NHC bashing. If you were in charge of track and intensity, and your best performing model and your second-best performing model were showing two completely different solutions, with the other models spread evenly between the two, what would you do?
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Quoting Mamasteph:
I guess we can all be glad it wasn't a cat2 or higher and NHC pulled this on us..Florida may forgive but us oldtimers have never forgotten what happened with Andrew..supposedly all the changes with NHC went into effect because of that..yes I was there..not in the thick of things but far enough south(West palm beach) that I had 1 day to prepare..

If it were a better organized system, there wouldn't be so much uncertainty. The disorganized state of the system has a lot to do with the uncertainty.
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Quoting RadarRich:
Not to be repetitive, but the NHC is wording this as close to the cusp as possible to CYA, (Cover Your A+$). They missed the forcast with the models and need to recover slowly. Watch the forcast positions move with each advisory, as well as the cone. Thank goodness Debby is not a fast mover at this time...


ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.


Yep, they want to enjoy their plate of crow very slowly, savoring each bite.

Still shocked they didn't issue TS warnings for N FL .... TS force conditions are RIGHT offshore and moving North
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Reminds me of Ida.


Eye-DA!
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2145. K8eCane
Quoting Mamasteph:
I guess we can all be glad it wasn't a cat2 or higher and NHC pulled this on us..Florida may forgive but us oldtimers have never forgotten what happened with Andrew..supposedly all the changes with NHC went into effect because of that..yes I was there..not in the thick of things but far enough south(West palm beach) that I had 1 day to prepare..



After having lived and raised their kids in Homestead, my aunt and uncle moved to the panhandle because of andrew
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I guess we can all be glad it wasn't a cat2 or higher and NHC pulled this on us..Florida may forgive but us oldtimers have never forgotten what happened with Andrew..supposedly all the changes with NHC went into effect because of that..yes I was there..not in the thick of things but far enough south(West palm beach) that I had 1 day to prepare..
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
Also, BTW, not knocking the NHC by no means. This system was, and still is, a tough one to forcast. Lots of variables in play. Hopefully, all in the path of Debby will fare well, since she is not a major storm. Still significant enough to be prepared though, whichever way she goes.
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NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

Truest part of the recent NHC discussion
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Wow, well she's not moving all that fast is she, talk about a flood waiting to happen. I did notice that more spagetties are over north florida than going to Texas this am.
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good night everyone. see yall in a few got work in a few hours
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Spiderweb shifting East... GFS fighting strong....


darn darn darn darn darn darn darn....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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