Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.
Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.
Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.
Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.
Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.
References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.
Angela and Jeff
Reader Comments
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No, the center is not moving NW at all in fact it isnt moving much at all. It looks like it the center is much further NE but it just E/ESE of Tampa. The tstorms are wrap up a it strengthen. All though it 60 mph it really looks disorganized. However it needs to be more organized if it wants to get up to Hurricane strength which is likely to happen as its barely moving and an anticyclone is aligning itself over the COC.
Jim Cantore now stating that it might come "this" way.
I can see coastal flooding being a problem as it already can be, but this seems like an excellent test of our new pumping stations if we do get inundated with rain, and a great reminder to be prepared and clean storm drains. A lady was screaming at me earlier for being close to her Miata parked along side a completely clogged storm drain. I was about to clean it, but I'll respect her desire for no one to get near her car.
Wherever this goes, I just hope people stay safe. Also that people listen to official forecasts and prepare, not just read a few lines on a blog and think they have official answers.
Whoa I sure hope that doen't pan out.
Your right, they did they same thing with Irene, I can see them slowly adjusting it North and East maybe closer to the TX/LA border. If the NHC was to just move the cone directly over FL panhandle that would hurt their credibility.
Conditions
Pressure29.94 in Visibility10.0 miles CloudsMostly Cloudy 1700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2300 ft
Overcast 2800 ft
Moisture
Humidity91%Rainfall0.00 in
Heat Index89 °F Dew Point78 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir16 mph stronger gusts
Panama City is getting more action than us. here's a good webcam to watch the waves roll in
http://oaseasresorts.com/web-cam-panama-city-beac h.html
I know, it was in tribute to him. I didn't realize anyone would remember that. (Do I have to end this with IMO?) How you doing wannabe?
come Tuesday and Wednesday they sound fairly confident of that so we will see i guess
Best for me if she hangs tight to the coast as she moves west if that happens dont want her to be 100 miles or so offshore of course that don't bold well for the folks N of me good luck everyone.
blsealevel
I think we'd to a lot better to "hold our heads" as pple say locally, and invest our activities in a bit more observation.
IMO, both landfall scenarios still have a fair amount of merit, but while the ridge and the trough battle it out, it's pretty much a wait and see situation. Forecast certainty with Debby is pretty low.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY TRENDS
FOR T.S. DEBBY...EVEN IN THE SHORT-TERM. WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TC TORNADOES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON TBW VWP AND EXPECT
THAT THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH AND WEST
WITH TIME. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINFALL
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WITH SOMEWHAT
MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITH LIGHTNING EMBEDDED WITHIN DISORGANIZED
FEEDER BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PERSISTENT WEAK ROTATION
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TRACKING ABOUT 25NM OFF
THE FL WEST COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF CELLS EXHIBITING
WEAK ROTATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER/RAIN LIKELY INHIBITING INLAND DESTABILIZATION...WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN AND SRN FL WITH THIS
OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO EXTEND THOSE LOW PROBABILITIES WWD ALONG THE
NCNTRL GULF COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG
SHEAR TO SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
Are they sure Debbie is not coming to Florida??!!
Water pushing up into the mouth of Tampa Bay with this. your right not good!!!
50 Miles N of PC BCH, 12 Miles S of the FL/AL Border Windy and mostly overcast but no rain yet today.
Its vector had changed from North at 5.8mph(9.3km/h) to NWest at 12.3mph(19.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 50knots(80mph)93km/h
MinimumPressure had decreased from 998millibars to994millibars
For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
KHRT is MaryEsther,Florida :: ECP is PanamaCity,Florida :: 2J0is Wakulla,Florida
The SSWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The SWesternmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position
The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The ECP-dumbell is the endpoint of 24June12amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The KHRT-dumbell is the endpoint of 24June6amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 24June12pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over StMarksNationalWildlifeRefuge in ~15&1/2.hours from now
Copy&paste lch, mob, apf, ecp-30.202n85.854w, khrt-30.393n86.589w, 2jo, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 27.0n87.3w-27.8n86.5w, 27.0n87.3w-30.084n84.115w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
See the previous mapping for comparison.
center, yes, but rain bands and TS force gusts and weather, no.
It was dry as a bone through 2 am in Tallahassee last night. We've had steady rain all day and there's heavier bands coming our way.
I know it's not subtropical, at all, but the way the bad weather is displaced from the CoC, it feels that way.
too much focus on the center, IMO.
rain, rain, and more rain...
maybe some heavy gusts in some bands, but I doubt we'll ever see sustained TS winds, unless the thing tracks directly over the top of us. (which a few models are still showing, so not out of the question).
JMHO
Supposedly a low is headed this way for tuesday....a deep one, also.
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